V ($1000-ish): 50s-60s Italian man, haven't played with him before, and since we're only 1 orbit into the session I don't have much info on him except that he's limped about half his hands. Has enough money in life such that he's not likely to be scared money, and he's a Manila player and as such is not likely to be capable of bluffing or folding draws/medium strength hands from my experience playing against Manila players.

(Manila is essentially 3-card limit Omaha played with a 32 card deck)

Hero (Covers): 20s Indian, have raised a couple of hands pre-flop so far already to $15, neither went to showdown though after I won both post-flop with aggression. V isn't likely to care about this from what I can tell so far.


Action:

Pre-flop:

Folded to hero in CO with QJ who raises to $15, folded to SB (loose-passive pre, tight-passive and face-up post, $700 stack) who calls, V 3-bets to $40, hero calls, SB calls.

Flop ($120):

QJ5

SB checks, V bets $40, hero raises to $135, SB folds, V quickly calls.

Turn ($390):

6

V checks, hero bets $325, V snap calls.

River ($1040):

8

V picks up his cards, looks at them for a while, shows them to all his neighbours whilst smiling, then softly taps the table to check, hero?

In the absence of this tell I was going to shove the river given that it's a fist-pump shove against his AA/KK (12 combos) which given the action so far is likely to be the majority of his range for getting to the river. However this tell seemed so strong that I wasn't quite sure whether or not it's still a value-shove anymore. Given most 3B ranges are fairly tight, I'd say that AKhh would be usually the only flush combo in his range, although with a 1-orbit sample size, there is a non-zero chance of other flush-combos being in his range (especially AQhh).


Additionally, regarding pre-flop, given stack-depth, the small raise sizes, me having position and a fairly sizable skill advantage over both opponents, I felt that folding anything remotely playable in my spot would be a mistake.

Shove

The first rule of tells isn't strong means strong, and there's a reason for that.

Seems like he's not 3b with AK given the read of being a manila player.

With only 0.5 SPR left this is a shove.

I like the way you played it.

shove. or something ridiculously valuey... like 255

That tell makes me even happier to bet because he has now conciously made an effort to slow you down.

You think most people wouldn't 3-bet without a tightly defined range like AhKh but you think most people would routinely stack off for 200 big blinds with one pair? That's pretty incredible, and doesn't match the games I play in.

I didn't see the live tell so I have no idea what it means.

If the Villain had KK/AA why do you think he made the small blocking bet on the flop? That's what people usually do with draws, not overpairs.

Seeing what the Villain did on the flop I probably would have bet close to pot on the flop rather than less than half-pot like you did.

People get married to KK+ all the time. 200bb is nothing, especially in a 3b pot.

I feel like the river tell is almost always non-nut hands. You don't smile and show your neighbors that you just rivered the nuts in a $1k pot, you try to get paid by acting as not weird as possible.

I can see us betting and losing to hands like T9 and JJ just because people play weird; but his 3-bet range seems so weighted to AA and KK that I still feel like we have to bet.

A competent player was going to get it in OTF with you with AKhh anyway, at least this way you had some hope of taking him to value town against weaker parts of his range.

Wait, no one said "fold pre" yet? To the 3bet, I mean.

38:1 implied odds and ultimate position... Why are you folding?

I'd fold pre after the 3-bet. QJo is kinda trash vs non-bluffing v's range. AP it's a ship for sure.

lol I tried to post this but the site was down earlier today and it never went through. flatting QJ against an unknown 3bet is not optimal to say the least.

I also suggested 15 pre in a 5/5 game with those eff stacks is a little small, raise 20/25 if he's calling 15 he will call 25. This also invites the possibility of someone 3betting much lighter (not that I would still flat tho)

I think the only hands we're afraid of after his reaction is a set, I read it as "look how strong my hand was, can you believe this river"

So the question is do we value bet to get payed by AA/KK, I think I can't help myself but shove here

never fold this pre with those odds, stacks, and position vs an italian that has limped half his hands. just take a mostly flop big or fold mentality the first time he 3bets this small, then adjust accordingly

All the time? There's no one in any solar system who doesn't get married to overpairs?

If you mean that people get married 100% of the time, I disagree. If you mean some of the time, that's obvious. But somehow, unlike a bunch of posters having seen it some of the time, I don't feel compelled to go to every thread where Hero has a hand stronger than one pair and post "shove".

It seems to me that on the flop the Villain is not playing his hand as most people do who have an overpair or set. Could he have an overpair or set? Of course.

Since it seems very possible that he doesn't have an overpair or set, I wouldn't have raised less than half pot on the flop.

Long story short: If he has an overpair, or a draw, that he's not folding, I want to make a decent sized raise on the flop.

If the Villain is not on a draw, and he's over-valuing an overpair, I don't understand why we need to bet small and give him good odds to continue. I think the hand is misplayed whatever the Villain ends up having.

+1

yeah, it really looks like AA, KK, AK or KT. it seems like a cant believe this hand got cracked, or that i bricked turn or river. snap calls also tend to look like draws as well. given he doesnt care about money, he might very well do this with AK, or KT, despite the odds hes getting.

when he shows his cards and checks softly, it seems like hes trying to intimidate you to check back by acting strong: smiling, the soft sneaky looking check, so he it doesnt seem like his range is very nutted here. given the strength youve shown, these live players would probably donk value jam their made hands on the river, given he doesnt have enough to c/r you anyway.

I though smiling was the nuts. But then, maybe he read Caro's book too. If so, he has a couple of frequencies to adjust. The frequency of frowning when he has the nuts, how often he bluff-smiles with the bottom of his range. The percentage of time he stops smiling with the middle of his range, when you smile back. (Did you? Think maybe you should have? I do.) Tough being first to act, although each of these things reduces your profit.

Tells, schmells. Question is, are you willing to bet $600 that he calls with worse. What's his 3b range out of the BB? AhQh takes this line every time, that's one combo. AhKh takes this line sometimes, there's another. That's two combo's of flushes against umpteen combo's of pocket pairs, some of which are decent bluff-catchers. If you want to add KhQh into the mix, fine; I'm adding in AQo.

But, does he call with less?

OK, here's where the tell comes in. If you think about it, it's really kind of foolish to smile with the middle of your range. What's there to smile about, right?* So I tend to discount sets. His range is enriched with 1p hands, and given your table rep, I think he calls with these, often enough to justify a thin value bet.



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*Unless he's smiling ironically, which changes the calculus considerably.

It's weird only one person mentioned about JJ so far. I think we should include QQ and JJ in his preflop (3! to small opening) and snap flop-turn calling range. Just because we have blockers doesn't disappear other QQ and JJ from the deck. He might be unhappy about the flush on the river. I'm checking back. I don't think he's gonna pay us with KK or AA just because he is a middle aged manila player. Those guys were playing the game before we're born.

The way I see it is very few combos beat you: AKhh, AQhh, AThh, KQhh, JJ, and QQ. That's 6 combos and I discount JJ and QQ because of blockers and he would've bet more OTF and T9 seems too loose for a 3-bet. What does that defensive flop bet mean? My guess is a strong draw, maybe with TPTK. Turn's a brick and he checks it - rules out sets to me, sets are jamming here or at least looking for action, AA and KK are also betting here. To me this now smells a lot like a draw. When the river brings the flush and he shows his neighbours my mind jumps to QJ and KQhh automatically. He's showing the second nut flush to see what they think. I check back MUBSily

Well played. I don't like heart on river as now there is good chance he folds his overpairs. But with only 500 left, betting 300 or so would be bad. Guess just ship it.

Maybe it's a merge smile?

Grunch... My read with the tell is this is sometimes a huge hand. Like QQ or JJ slow playing. However bet sizing and no raise makes me seriously discount that. Also, my read is that V thought your raise was for a draw and now everything got there and he hates it. I still think I'm betting a lot of the time because you block both QQ and JJ. But I think I'm betting something he can call with two black aces (the show to his neighbor is "look my aces just got cracked"). I'd bet $200-250 for a crying call, and not worry too much about him shoving.

I am not worried about him hitting the draws given the tell and preflop 3bet.

But what were the neighbors' reactions to villain's hand? Hard to believe everyone was inscrutable after villain's oversharing.

Fold pre is probably right. On top of being against a range that crushes you, you don't know V's tendencies so no idea if you can ever bluff him off AA or value town him on QQ2 or soul read him for AK when he 3balls you on a JT267 board. So I think it's incredibly difficult to turn a call into +EV. I'd much much rather have 78s to call. That being said, folding seems weak, and I hate seeming weak so I would usually call.