Tuesday night 5-5 2500 max game, I'm on a nice table with 6 recs and a few solid regs to my left.

Main villain in the hand is the prototypical fun player: a talkative rich guy who's on his 5th wineglass, yakking it up at the table. I've played him before and he's fairly LAG, I'd guess he has around 60vpip/40pfr stats. However he isnt absurdly spewy or anything, and he definitely has a fold button.
He views me as a tag grinder, commenting on how tight i was after i 3bet in a previous session.

5 minutes prior, villain raised pre, got called by one of the grinders from the blinds, and went b/b/check on a 997r 6 2 and lost to 88. Villain didn't show but was talking to himself, saying he should've thrown out the third barrel.

OTTH:
(Hero has 2k, villain covers. Both players in between have ~1.5k.)

Straddle to 10 is on.
Villain in UTG2 raises to 30.
Skandi tourist in MP calls.
Loose passive fish in CO calls.
Hero has T8 on the BTN and 3bets to 150.
Villain/UTG2 calls.
CO calls.

Flop (475 after rake):
853

check, check, Hero bets 220.
Only villain calls.

Turn (915):
853 8

Check, check.

River (915):
853 8 2

Villain bets 450, Hero calls.


As always, any comments and feedback on any part of the hand are appreciated. Thanks in advance.

PF - seems super standard to just flat with a decent hand IP. He's not folding to your 3! and do you really want to go to war with 10 high? Unless you have reads that you have a lot of fold equity (which doesn't seem to be the case) bloating the pot with a marginal hand seems needlessly complicated and FPS. Just flat and see a flop.

OTF AP - bet seems fine, maybe even a touch bigger. You can fold out overcards with your bet and keep telling your story, and since you made TP, you can get value from 66-77 that might peel one street. What would you do if you'd whiffed the flop (like if the 8 were a J not spades)?

OTT AP - Jackpot. If he didn't believe you OTF, the turn doesn't change anything. You're losing to only sets and the case 8. Bet 500-600 and set up the river shove. You have an awesome value hand that's well disguised.

OTR AP - What do you think he's betting here? I'm calling, never raising, and given your line, I expect to be good here a lot.

Seems like an odd hand to 3! here, but ok you know the player pool better than me. I assume you would fold to a 4!?

I like flop and sizing.

Turn...why aren't we betting again? Absolute pure value spot IMO given the likelihood that V has 99+ here (a fair assumption for a raise/call 3! range OOP). Frankly after this turn, I want to play for stacks vs this guy so I bet again, at least $400 so we have less than a PSB for the river. Probably more like $500 which would leave ~$1100 for the river and give V 3-1 to call with an overpair.

AP, I shove the river as other than bd diamonds, you destroy his betting range. And since you checked the turn, it looks bluffy. At least raise some amount...I can't understand just flatting with the absolute top of your range here. I mean what hands with diamonds does he actually get to the river with?? Is he floating AKdd/AQdd on the flop for $220?? That seems like a huge stretch.

The fact that you posted the hand means you probably lost, but if you are going to 3! T8ss, bink trips and not felt trying for max value on this board texture, then I think you played it poorly.

Don't see the point to 3b this hand against a field of weak/fun players. Would much rather just go wide for value, with a bluff mixed in here or there.

Gotta barrel this turn. We have a hand we can go for 3 streets of value with. Also, it will look so out of character / FOS for you to barrel this that he'll prob call you down super light. I think I like another half pot bet of ~450, sets up a ~1200 river shove into a pot of 1800

Pre is whatever. Flop check might be better, pretty close. Turn and river, just what the hell are you doing.

A talkative rich guy who opens early drinking 5 glasses of wine probably isn't folding to a 3bet. He's the main villain you need to base your 3bet decision on pre and the more callers there are, you should strengthen your 3betting range.

Just call the river. Your not getting called with worse if he's been commenting how tight you are.

Yeah you crush his betting range, but how happy are you when he calls? I don't think this dude is calling a river jam without a great hand. Sure, maybe we felt AA sometimes but when he's calling he's much more likely to have outflopped us or caught BD diamonds.

FWIW, I'm also getting all the chips in the center playing this hand, but I'd be doing it with a b / b / s line. Once you play this passively, a river raise AI looks really strong and isn't getting called down by lol-JJ.

Agree to disagree. This is a 3! pot and the board is totally ragged. I expect TT+ to call a river shove a ton here. Main point is the # of hands we are ahead of on this river that may call is way higher than the number we lose to that will deffo call. Even if he only calls the shove with QQ+, flushes, and boats, we are still better than 50% when called (18 overpair combos vs 2 flushes + 12 boats).

PF is just awful against gambley players with 10 high. Just flat.

Flop I'd check esp with backdoor FD 3-way in a 3b pot.

Turn is a must barrel, you turn basically the nuts against a whale and you check....?

River I'd just flat, he mostly polarized here. I seriously doubt he is betting 99/1010 at any high freq, probably same for JJ although higher freq than 99/1010.

A lot of actions in the hands are just backwards. We have ten high vs a bunch of fish/whales and then decide to 3b. Then when we turn the nuts ott we check.

like i get your turn check for balance purposes (he should have more 8x and sets than us)

but like, this is one of those spots where if we are going to 3! T8s pre and bet flop (we should check flop IMO) we neeeeed to be getting stacks in by the river by betting the turn.

more often than not this guy is going to be paying off 3 streets with an overpair.

My belated thoughts on the hand:
Preflop: This is where i disagree with most. Almost everyone itt is advocating a flat pre.
Imo, if we are gonna VPiP this hand, a 3bet is significantly better. I don't expect to win the hand preflop a lot, or maybe ever, but folding out some equity should be a priority in this spot.
For starters, we fold out the strong players in the blinds a high percentage of the time. Even regardless of skill level, it's just so much easier to win the hand vs 2 opponents than it is vs 5. We thin the field, gain the initiative and have a chance to play in position vs player(s) who should make significantly worse decisions postflop than i do.

Flop: my cbet can still get called by worse and i can protect a bit vs 4 potential overcards. A check definitely is fine also, i don't mind either option.

Turn: clearly everyone thinks this should be a bet and i agree. Devil's advocate: A) i check back most of my range on this turn, so for balance is should check here also. B) My range and image are still stupidly strong and i might fold out a bunch of worse hands, and C) .... Yeah i got nothing. I need to exploite him hard here. This is a clear bet.

River: As drunk and whaley as this guy is, i cant imagine raising here get's called by worse often. I guess 89s and 87s do, but an overpair is definitely folding imo.

Results:

Thanks for the feedback guys!

Grunch

Turn is a slam dunk value bet to set up the river shove. $600 on turn leaves ~1/2 PSB begins for the river.

Pre fine, flop would like a smaller bet, as played turn is a must bet.

grunch. flat pre, bet turn, AP river easy call wp.