Hi guys. I'm looking for a second opinion on what i considered a standard play in game, but having second thoughts on afterwards.
As always, any feedback is very much welcomed and appreciated.

It's early sunday evening and i'm sitting at what must be one of the dreariest tables i've ever been at. Nobody's talking, everybody is just grumpily ignoring each other. The game itself is good tho, only one decent reg 3 seats to my left, the others are weak unknowns and semi-regs.

Villain is one of those weak semi-regs. He limp/calls like 60% of hands and is somewhat sticky post as well, allthough not as bad as preflop, he definitely has a fold button when played back at. Not great at handreading tho. He also tends to bet big when he has value/wants to protect.

CO is an unknown scruffy looking MAWG who sat down 3 hands ago.

OTTH:

Folds to Hero on the HJ who raises to 20 with JT.

CO (1k stack) 3bets to 50.
Villain (1500 stack) in the BB calls 50.
Hero (1200 stack) calls also.

Flop (155):
A97

It checks through.

Turn (155):
A97 8
Jackpot

V bets 200.
Hero...
(while taking 20+ seconds to decide, i look left and see CO picking up his cards, as if he's ready to fold.)

So this is clearly the major inflection point in the hand. So imo pro's and con's between raising and folding are:

pros for raising:
-i have the nuts with a redraw and want to get more money in, ldo.
-villain can have massive value like 77/99 that missed a c/r otf. Possibly a9s/and Ax also.
-there are a lot of cards on the river that can slow down the action like flush and straight cards.
-i have the nuts with a redraw and want to get more money in, ldo.

con's against raising:
-I take away his ability to barrel river, which he seems pretty likely to bomb.
-his most likely hands are 1 pair hands, like AJ/AQ/AK, which he mostly b/f imo.
-conversely, there aren't that many superstrong hands in his range, such as sets (discounting AA, only 6 combo's) or 2 pair (3 combo's of A9 and maaaaaybe 2 combo's of A7s?).
-I have very little to protect against. And hands with significant equity (sets and KQ) aren't folding anyway.
-V seems sticky enough to x/call any reasonable bet on the river even if a scare card comes. And he certainly isn't folding sets.
-My live read on CO being ready to fold might be off and i might be missing out on an extra call or even a raise with a slowplayed AA.


So flat and hope V keeps barrelling? Or raise and try to play for stacks/get more money in? If we raise, what is our best sizing?

Let me know, and feel free to comment on any other decision in the hand. Thanks in advance and apologies for the long post.

TL;DR: Raise turn for fat value or flat and induce a big river bet?

Pretty sure I'm raising here for value. 1/2 the deck will slow one of us down on the river. Not a blow 'em out of the water raise, maybe $350-400 on top. V needs to call $350-400 into $950. Also sets river up for shove.

checking flop is a mistake, always bet flop

I disagree that he overbets this turn with one pair like AJ-AK. This is AA a lot I think.

No matter what you do, it will look strong. I prefer flatting personally.

V most likely would have 4b this pre if he had AA, especially when facing a puny 3b

Why? I would be betting into 2 opponents who are very Ax heavy with little fold equity. I guess in a perfect storm they both have TT-KK or KQs and it gets through, but that seems rare.
I also run the risk of getting ~200BB's in vs a set or a "i have AK and i DGAF" type of hand, which isn't that terrible, but definitely not great either.


I've seen him make simular bets with TPGK in simular spots. I dont think he ever has AA, he 4bets that pre for sure. 77/99 definitely a possibility tho.

I just raise now. Make it $500. $400 looks a bit cheesy and as if you are stringing him along. I don't think you are getting much more out of him on river unless he has you beat, so might as well get what you can now. If he also has JT, you are probably free-rolling, and he's bound to shove now. He might call with two pair, flush draw, set, etc.

there are more reasons to bet than just fold equity especially when ip

you don't have to go with your hand just because you bet

I'm not in position, i'm in the HJ. CO was the original raiser and is directly to my left/stil to act behind me.

I think this is a flat on the turn. I think villain's range here is sets (77-99), 2 pairs (87s,98s, A7-A9s), some pair/draw hands (T9s, QJs, QTs, KTs, KJs), weak Top pair hands (AJ, AQ, maybe AKo), and the nuts with JTs. I think facing this range you should call, because almost all of these hands will continue betting river, either for value with his sets and maybe the 2 pair hands, or bluffing with his straight blockers or missed flush draws. He might even turn his weak top pair hands into a bluff OTR trying to represent a flush when it comes in. I think the line should be to call turn, and either raise all-in if he bets river, or shove yourself with a polarized range.

Scratch everything i said then, misread your op

raise turn to $500-550 to setup a river shove.....if you just flat then a ton of cards will kill your action on the river (any club, any diamond, or any card that puts 4 to a straight on the board)

Definitely do not flat.

I'd all in.

Also realize, hitting a club would be a bad thing. I dont think people always realize this in these spots.

can't imagine flatting. that's nutso. 65 is never folding

CO is pretty irrelevant - if he calls here, it's mostly going to be with flush draws, and specifically diamonds since you block clubs, and that's not going to be profitable for you.

Board has way too many bad river cards. Non-bricks are: 9 clubs, 11 diamonds, 8 non-flush cards that create one-liners, and 8 non-flush cards that pair board. So you only get a brick-ish card 10/46, or a little bit over 20% of the time.

Definitely raise here. I think villain's hand is already made, so I probably just click it back to like 450-500, and let villain decide to shove OOP on a draw-heavy board. But if villain has hands like 9Tdd here, it might be better just to ship it, as you're not really winning anything vs draws (as opposed to getting them to fold) by clicking it back.

+1 on the ship. so few bricks in the deck.

True.. I misread this.. this is a 77/88/99 a lot then.. not AA

Thanks 2 all for their comments. Some good stuff in here.

So while playing the hand i never even really consider flatting and confidently raised to 550. We can squabble about the sizing, i dont like shipping it much, but whatever. I felt like raising was the obvious play.

However, afterwards i was dissecting his range a bit and 1 pair hands make up something between 40-55% of his entire range. Simply because there are more combos of AK/AQ/AJ then of 77/88/99, for instance. That's a lot of hands we fold out, almost all of which are drawing dead.

I fully realize that their are many bad cards otr, but most of the hands that give up on the are those same 1 pair hands we fold out by raising the turn.
Also I highly doubt he is folding a set on, say the T river, so we can often still eek out some value, albeit perhaps less. And on some rivers we can still get it in anyway.
However we miss out on all the value we get when he x/c river with Ax, which again is a large part of his initial turn betting range.
I haven't thrown this into a solver to see what is the most EV play, but i'm guessing it would be kinda close.

I see where you are coming from if the live read is a protection bet of a 1 pair hand. Will he fire again on a brick though? x/c?

Depending on image and villain you can get a light call when shipping because they put you on a draw like Ad2d.

I find it hard to believe a solver would consider a call here. Could be wrong though.