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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 06-13-2015, 06:15 PM   #1
danhendo888
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5/5: What's my equity here?

5/5
10-handed

V1 (BB, $1500) early 60s rich Asian male, playing bingo with ATC, will chase draws including gutshots for over 100bbs on the turn, but running hot.

V2 (UTG, $1500) mid 20s male, playing a pretty straightforward ABC style, been raising pre quite often.

V3 (LP, $150) short stack.

Hero (MP, $560) mid 20s male, sat down recently, haven't played a hand yet.

Hand:
V2 raises to $25, five callers inc Hero (with KQ)

Flop:

$150
6KJ

V1 bets $100
V2 raises to $325
Hero ???

Can someone punch in some possible hand ranges for these villains and calculate my equity against those ranges in Pokerstove?
I'm pretty sure I'm meant to shove here but am not sure of the math behind why? E.g. if I'm against a set or 2p, aren't I theoretically already crushed?
(Sorry don't have Pokerstove)
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Old 06-14-2015, 01:53 AM   #2
Triplerangemerge22
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

assuming V1 isnt folding to your shove you need ~30% equity. nobody is answering your post because there isnt enough info to narrow their range.
id fold here. v1 may not call unless youre crushed. v2 likely has ak or better. against ak kj you are ~45%. against a set you are ~28%. on occasion you are up against both a nut FD and a better made hand. id want at least 40% equity against both ranges at the min and prefer 50%.
realisticlly against both ranges you have 25% to 30% equity. even hu against v2 you have 35% to 40%
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Old 06-14-2015, 01:55 AM   #3
Triplerangemerge22
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

now if you had AKcc or ATcc i would flat as you are drawing to the nuts and actually want v1 to call
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Old 06-14-2015, 04:29 AM   #4
danhendo888
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triplerangemerge22 View Post
assuming V1 isnt folding to your shove you need ~30% equity. nobody is answering your post because there isnt enough info to narrow their range.
id fold here. v1 may not call unless youre crushed. v2 likely has ak or better. against ak kj you are ~45%. against a set you are ~28%. on occasion you are up against both a nut FD and a better made hand. id want at least 40% equity against both ranges at the min and prefer 50%.
realisticlly against both ranges you have 25% to 30% equity. even hu against v2 you have 35% to 40%
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triplerangemerge22 View Post
now if you had AKcc or ATcc i would flat as you are drawing to the nuts and actually want v1 to call
Thanks for those figures, Triplerange!

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Old 06-14-2015, 07:19 PM   #5
Ragequit99
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

triplerangemerge22: Did you include AA in v2's range here? AK is reduced to 8 combos, KJ to 6 combos and sets to 7. The most likely nfds for v2 are blocked by jc on flop and kc qc in hero's hand and v2 cant both have hero beat and the nfd at the same time. Vs 6 combos of AA hero has 8 or 9 flush outs, 2 K outs and 3 Q outs so that's close to 50% equity headsup vs

V1 can continue with a lot of dominated FDs, straight draws and weaker KX JX if he is as bad as OP says. I get the impression $500 is nothing to v1.

There is $575 in the pot already and hero has $535 behind. I'm not totally convinced hero should fold here...

I'd be tempted to call and get the rest in on turn regardless of what comes - try to keep v1 in.

Also with v1 this bad I'd buy in for as much as table allows.
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Old 06-14-2015, 09:32 PM   #6
Triplerangemerge22
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99 View Post
triplerangemerge22: Did you include AA in v2's range here? AK is reduced to 8 combos, KJ to 6 combos and sets to 7. The most likely nfds for v2 are blocked by jc on flop and kc qc in hero's hand and v2 cant both have hero beat and the nfd at the same time. Vs 6 combos of AA hero has 8 or 9 flush outs, 2 K outs and 3 Q outs so that's close to 50% equity headsup vs

V1 can continue with a lot of dominated FDs, straight draws and weaker KX JX if he is as bad as OP says. I get the impression $500 is nothing to v1.

There is $575 in the pot already and hero has $535 behind. I'm not totally convinced hero should fold here...

I'd be tempted to call and get the rest in on turn regardless of what comes - try to keep v1 in.

Also with v1 this bad I'd buy in for as much as table allows.
Yes I added AA. TBH those are all rough numbers I ran in my head.

also at OP.....in spots that are neutral EV its alot better to fold if you tilt at all after losing a big pot. any tiny +EV is negated by your tilt

Last edited by Triplerangemerge22; 06-14-2015 at 09:47 PM.
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Old 06-14-2015, 09:41 PM   #7
Triplerangemerge22
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by danhendo888 View Post
5/5
10-handed

V1 (BB, $1500) early 60s rich Asian male, playing bingo with ATC, will chase draws including gutshots for over 100bbs on the turn, but running hot.

V2 (UTG, $1500) mid 20s male, playing a pretty straightforward ABC style, been raising pre quite often.

V3 (LP, $150) short stack.

Hero (MP, $560) mid 20s male, sat down recently, haven't played a hand yet.

Hand:
V2 raises to $25, five callers inc Hero (with KQ)

Flop:

$150
6KJ

V1 bets $100
V2 raises to $325
Hero ???

Can someone punch in some possible hand ranges for these villains and calculate my equity against those ranges in Pokerstove?
I'm pretty sure I'm meant to shove here but am not sure of the math behind why? E.g. if I'm against a set or 2p, aren't I theoretically already crushed?
(Sorry don't have Pokerstove)
OP check out http://www.flopzilla.com/holdeq.html . it's a free app that is just like pokerstove. if you're really really serious about being one of the best, i suggest you buy flopzilla as well. its a much more advanced version of pokerstove (but very easy to learn) and for a one time investment of roughly $35, it will save you hundreds.

I ran the numbers this time though holdem equalizer instead of through my head. It's alot closer than I thought initially. You have 34% equity. V2 has 37% equity (assuming his range is AA, KK, JJ, 66, AK, KJs, AQcc, ATcc) and V1 has 29% equity (assuming his range is JJ, 66, AK, KQ, KJ, K6s, J6s, AQcc, ATcc). As you can see it's roughly neutral EV whether or not you fold or stack off here so it doesn't matter much what you do long term.

If you don't fold, I'd flat to keep in V1 though.

There are issues here with the ranges. You don't give us enough info on V1. So we don't know if he plays his FDs aggressively or if he donks KT, KQ or two pairs+ etc so we have to make a rough guess. Also for V2, we don't know enough about his ranges either. He's aggressive but does he raise a lot pre UTG? Does he raise KJs, or ATcc or 66 UTG?
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Old 06-15-2015, 02:13 AM   #8
Nozsr
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Re: 5/5: What's my equity here?

V2 has been raising a lot?

And V2 is sitting behind V1?

And V1 is a loose cannon?

Normally we should think "they can't both be bull****ting" but in this case there is a good chance that V2 is trying to isolate V1.

We have top pair with 2nd kicker and a 2nd nut flush draw.

Hard to imagine many better flops for KQc.

(Other than KKQ or KKK LOL).

What were we going to do if we faced action after calling?

Agree with Ragequit.

Again.
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