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Originally Posted by wj94
Well you flopped top set and decided to check three times, maybe rethink that before analyzing anything else. Raise flop/bomb turn/bomb river. He's either got a hand he wants to continue with or he doesn't. You have 100% value zero bluffs when you c/c flop instead of c/r. You know why c/r top set on these boards is great? Because V's think to themselves "the board is so dry, why would he raise with a set?!"
So V checks back turn because he knows you have a value hand and wants to get there. Now you c/r river, so it looks like you have a set or 2p, and V ships it anyway. Hard to fold sets but feels like V always shows up with QJs/J7s/67s in some ******ed way where he had a backdoor FD, turned a gutter, then got there. Just bet/call river instead of c/r. What hands do you expect V to pay off a c/r with on the river? It's unlikely he has an overpair, overpairs and sets don't check back turn, so what's he gonna show up with that calls $375? River 3b bluff jams are extremely rare and it takes a special kind of V to turn their value hand into a bluff or just 3b jam a total bluff over a river c/r when it looks like you have a strong hand.
That’s right on the money.
If checking top set OOP 3x in this spot is optimal for you, you’re probably not aggressive enough overall.
Played as you do, I sigh and call and usually lose to QJ or 99, but can’t find a fold due to the line I took. But I wouldn’t actually take that line.