Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep 5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep

09-29-2017 , 02:31 PM
Timing tells, while reliable, are very tricky. Often in live poker they indicate strength, but in this specific situation I would lean towards weakness, or perhaps not weakness but "fear." For example in a 3b pot people often snap bet their overpairs on dry flops.

Id guess his most likely holdings are weaker Jx or total spazz.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 02:59 PM
yeah this is a snap call, he has Jx or 77, you lose sometimes you win plenty.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:16 PM
For the love of all that needs RESULTS... post the hidden spoiler thingy that I can't figure out how to use yet lol
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Timing tells, while reliable, are very tricky. Often in live poker they indicate strength, but in this specific situation I would lean towards weakness, or perhaps not weakness but "fear." For example in a 3b pot people often snap bet their overpairs on dry flops.

Id guess his most likely holdings are weaker Jx or total spazz.
Agre that timing tells are tricky...

I think that in this spot, it shows that he wasn't really considering how the K interacted with his and hero's range... So 77 would definitely be a hand where villain might not care, he's planning to shove regardless of river. AJ and QJ I think become a little bit less likely, especially AJ because now he realizes he loses to KJ. I also think it's somewhat unlikely for villain to have KJ here, but hard to say - if he was already planning on shoving, the K otr could potentially make him do it faster.

The timing tell basically makes me slightly more likely to call in this spot, but not a ton. It slightly increases my weighting of 77 while decreasing my weighting of both AJ and KJ. It also would slightly increase my weighting of hands like 9J and 8J.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:46 PM
Result:

Spoiler:
I read everyone's opinion & am humbled that you took time to respond. Thank you.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
This comes down to his EP raising range. There are zero combos of AJs or KJs remaining. There is one combo of QJs and taking this line would be quite an overplay in my book given the worst Jx hero can reasonably have is JTs and the occasional J9s. If villain is wide pre even in EP I would much rather a 3! pre, and if he's tight from EP I probably just muck and move on.

The read seems to be pushing us in the direction that villain can show up with anything which feels like a catch-all excuse to hero down and be shown some inexplicable bluff, but versus a sane individual I'm probably folding to the turn x/r.
That makes a lot of sense. I would even question whether we should be expecting to get three streets of value from QQ+ in the first place.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
Result:

Spoiler:
I read everyone's opinion & am humbled that you took time to respond. Thank you.
/banned
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-29-2017 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
That makes a lot of sense. I would even question whether we should be expecting to get three streets of value from QQ+ in the first place.
Agreed. I think we get the most value from his range with a b/x/b line.

It gets a little tricky if villain leads river, we raise, and get raised on. He really shouldn't be 3! the river with a hand worse than ours for value so I think we can reasonable r/f river.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote
09-30-2017 , 06:33 AM
You guys are thinking about a timing tell that we don't actually have on Villain but not the tell that he's usually passive on rivers, yet he just shoved a very large stack against someone who most likely (pretty clearly) has a J?

If we are ahead, this guy is clearly pretty tilted.
5/5  Trips top kicker made uneasy by river jam 240bb deep Quote

      
m