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Old 07-11-2018, 03:13 PM   #1
weltis
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5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Played an interesting hand the other night and wanted to hear everyone's thoughts. I think PF, flop, and turn are interesting / close.

Table just formed about 30 minutes ago. Hero has $1250. Although Hero is usually on the tighter side, a lot of the hands played were 6 handed and Hero was picking up a lot of mediocre hands like KJo, ATo, so his image may be slightly more loose and aggressive than normal.

V1 ($1000) is an unknown middle aged white guy.

V2 ($1000) is a middle aged white guy who plays a lot. Definitely a fish who makes weird plays all the time like check raising with air, bottom pair on monotone flops. Limp reraises huge with AKo, etc.

V3 ($1200) is a middle aged white guy who has played fairly tight today, but I have seen him in previous sessions call off pretty light and make strange check raise jams for his whole stack. Seems like someone who is tight most of hte time, but may go on tilt randomly for whatever reason.

Preflop: V1 opens from UTG +2 to $30. V2 in MP calls. I call in BU with A8. V3 in SB calls. BB folds.

I think 250BB deep against a fish in position, this is a standard call.

Flop ($140): AJ5

V3 checks.
V1 checks.
V2 checks.
Hero checks.

I decided to check this particular hand because I can't get three streets of value, I don't need to protect my hand, and I don't wanna be in a bet / fold spot against two players who have histories of check raising with a wide range. I rather check here and bluff catch / value bet later streets.

Turn ($140) AJ59

V3 checks.
V1 checks.
V2 bets 85.
Hero calls.
V3 raises to $390.
V2 folds.
Hero?

I tanked for probably 3 minutes here. We both have about $800 behind, so about a 3/4 pot size bet if I decide to call turn. Against unknown / tighter players, I think this is a pretty easy fold, as their check raises in a 4-way pot are going to be extremely value heavy. However, against this particular opponent, I wasn't really sure what I wanted to do. He's repping a pretty narrow value range - AJ, J9s, 99, A5s, and 55, which comes out to 19 combos. I think a good portion of these also lead turn. But I really couldn't think of too many semibluffs/ bluffs that could warrant a call. Having the 8 of spades is definitely a bad card, since we block some hands like 87s and T8s.

I think if I was $300+ deeper I would call turn, since I think my implied odds of rivering a flush are really good given my line. With these stacks though, I also know that there is a very strong chance by calling turn, I will face a river jam. So I am effectively calling about $1100 to win ~$1500, so I need about 42% equity. Of course, if he sometimes checks this number goes down, but I don't know how often this villain checks the river.

Thoughts? If you argue we should fold, what hands would we be calling in this spot?
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Old 07-11-2018, 03:27 PM   #2
shorn7
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Bet the flop. It is way too connected to just check and give a free look. You rate to have the best hand a lot of the time with 3 checks to you, so get one of your streets of value now. If you get checkraised, then you can re-evaluate.

Turn is close. In order to call at 0 EV you need to make $1220 total from the pot. Pot is $700 now, so that means you would need to make an additional $520 on the river to break even. And one of your outs might be tainted (5s), so you might even need to make a bit more.

I think is a reluctant but necessary fold. That being said, if you had bet the flop, you might have been able to check back this turn and get to the river cheaply...even another reason to bet on the first street.
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Old 07-11-2018, 03:33 PM   #3
Mr Spyutastic
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

PF and flop are completely std.

Turn is std to. At the point of the raise you are getting 2.29 to 1 and you need about 2.9 as his range I feel is pretty strong(like mostly 2 pairs and a couple sets and no draws)

So given the direct odds this is a fold. There could be some implied odds, but to me it's unclear since some of your "outs" may just end uposing you more money.

Overall I think this is a clear fold on the turn.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:15 PM   #4
bigdaddycope
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

I think we wanna bet flop 4 ways here. There's just so many random 2p and sets ppl can hit and we want to deny equity/protect in this spot. It doesnt have to be a huge bet and we have a hand that can easily be ditched vs a C/R considering we have so many better hands to to bet for value.

AP, super gross spot but is the BB really checking a big value hand on that turn card after flop action checks through?

Villan has to have ~0% bluffing frequency in this spot for us to fold this turn card (which may be true).

Never jamming. It's call and pray for a spade or that he slows down OTR. I think it's super possible for him to have like QT or something here.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:48 PM   #5
weltis
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Interesting to hear both sides of checking back flop and betting flop (for a small size, of course). I definitely see merits to both. To elaborate, I think checking flop is good because:

Our hand can call any turn pretty comfortably and a lot of rivers.
Sure, there are turn cards that give our 3 opponents two pairs / trips, but these are few.
I induce random hands to start bluffing and I can get two streets on good run outs.
Check raising the flop is more common than facing a check raise on the turn.

Overall, I really think flop is close and I think a mixed strategy is probably optimal. I think against more aggressive opponents I opt to check back more often.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:55 PM   #6
Mr Spyutastic
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

To add to your points regarding why checking is better,

you have top pair of A. Betting for protection is not a good reason here. You will usually be wa/wb.

Adds balance to your checking range. If you're auto betting all your weak and middle TPs, then what does it mean when you check?
Villains will have to call the turn bet wider because now you can be betting turn with 2nd or 3rd pairs.
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Old 07-11-2018, 05:20 PM   #7
jc315
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

checking flop is fine as is betting. i fold on the turn. blocking T8ss which would be a potential bluffing candidate. he usually has us drawing to 9 outs or fewer here.
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Old 07-12-2018, 09:51 AM   #8
shorn7
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Last thing I will say about flop and why I think betting is definitely better...would we be calling if someone led into us and either it was (1) folded to us or (2) there was one caller in between and no raise? If the answer to both of those is "yes", then I think we should bet when checked to by all three. This could be somewhat of a negative equity check spot where a lot of cards on the turn could make a better hand than we have now where we will only get action when beaten. I obviously think we would likely fold if V3 bet and both players called (at least I would fold) or if there was a bet and a raise in front of us.

Anyway, not that it changes the decision point in the hand much but my default on the flop in most hands is going to be to bet unless I have an unbeatable hand or absolute napkins with little to no equity to improve versus multiple opponents. Maybe that is a small leak for me (betting too frequently), but hard to determine without an extremely large sample so I am not sure.
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Old 07-12-2018, 10:20 AM   #9
samo
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Fold as played for reasons already mentioned.

Flop is a check-back, imho. No need to protect on this board texture; zero FE vs. A9+; chance to pickup more equity OTT and play ip.

I don't think building a pot with TPBK is optimal. Fwiw, it the flop had a bet and a call, my hand would be rapidly mucked.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:59 AM   #10
Keaton
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Re: 5/5 Top Pair NFD on turn facing x/r

Call pre is standard.

Bet flop. It checks around to you and you're last to act, so you're more apt to look like you're stealing when you bet. I really don't think KJ or QJ is going to fold here.

And yes, a decent number of turn cards give your opponents two pair or a gutshot straight. I'm not too worried about protection here, but that's part of the story too.

There is $140 in the pot, so betting and getting folds is a perfectly fine outcome.

Last edited by Keaton; 07-13-2018 at 02:14 AM.
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