Played an interesting hand the other night and wanted to hear everyone's thoughts. I think PF, flop, and turn are interesting / close.
Table just formed about 30 minutes ago. Hero has $1250. Although Hero is usually on the tighter side, a lot of the hands played were 6 handed and Hero was picking up a lot of mediocre hands like KJo, ATo, so his image may be slightly more loose and aggressive than normal.
V1 ($1000) is an unknown middle aged white guy.
V2 ($1000) is a middle aged white guy who plays a lot. Definitely a fish who makes weird plays all the time like check raising with air, bottom pair on monotone flops. Limp reraises huge with AKo, etc.
V3 ($1200) is a middle aged white guy who has played fairly tight today, but I have seen him in previous sessions call off pretty light and make strange check raise jams for his whole stack. Seems like someone who is tight most of hte time, but may go on tilt randomly for whatever reason.
Preflop: V1 opens from UTG +2 to $30. V2 in MP calls. I call in BU with A
8
. V3 in SB calls. BB folds.
I think 250BB deep against a fish in position, this is a standard call.
Flop ($140): A
J
5
V3 checks.
V1 checks.
V2 checks.
Hero checks.
I decided to check this particular hand because I can't get three streets of value, I don't need to protect my hand, and I don't wanna be in a bet / fold spot against two players who have histories of check raising with a wide range. I rather check here and bluff catch / value bet later streets.
Turn ($140) A
J
5
9
V3 checks.
V1 checks.
V2 bets 85.
Hero calls.
V3 raises to $390.
V2 folds.
Hero?
I tanked for probably 3 minutes here. We both have about $800 behind, so about a 3/4 pot size bet if I decide to call turn. Against unknown / tighter players, I think this is a pretty easy fold, as their check raises in a 4-way pot are going to be extremely value heavy. However, against this particular opponent, I wasn't really sure what I wanted to do. He's repping a pretty narrow value range - AJ, J9s, 99, A5s, and 55, which comes out to 19 combos. I think a good portion of these also lead turn. But I really couldn't think of too many semibluffs/ bluffs that could warrant a call. Having the 8 of spades is definitely a bad card, since we block some hands like 87s and T8s.
I think if I was $300+ deeper I would call turn, since I think my implied odds of rivering a flush are really good given my line. With these stacks though, I also know that there is a very strong chance by calling turn, I will face a river jam. So I am effectively calling about $1100 to win ~$1500, so I need about 42% equity. Of course, if he sometimes checks this number goes down, but I don't know how often this villain checks the river.
Thoughts? If you argue we should fold, what hands would we be calling in this spot?