5/5 Gardens

Villain (HJ, $600) - Middle-aged Asian guy, sat down recently with a bunch of Baccarat cards. Never seen in poker room before. Folded for a few orbits, no real reads.

Hero with AK in MP1
Hero open to 25
Villain, CO, SB, BB call

Flop [125]: AQ6
Checks to Hero, who bets 75
Villain seems to act visibly frustrated, sighing loudly, looking confused at the board. Looks to me like it's faking. After 10 seconds, shrugs and calls.
CO calls, blinds fold

Turn [350]: 8
Hero bets 160
Villain does the same spiel as he did on the flop, and calls.

River [670]: 5
Hero checks
Villain looks like he is going to check, then 15 seconds later jams 255
Hero?

Is this a mandatory call here? Need to be good 21% of the time. I figure since he's IP on the river, he would check back weaker aces for showdown value. I only beat busted spades that decide to bluff jam, or if he weirdly turns AJ/AT into a bluff at the end. Losing to AQs, A6s, 66. Live read seems to indicate that we're beat with a big hand as well IMO.

Thoughts?

I do not think many players at this level turn top pair into a bluff. I do not see you being good %21 of the time but maybe this is a leak in my game.

I would fold river

With all the drama (weak = strong), my guess is 66 or QQ. Might even check fold turn, but I'm nitty like that. Fold river.

It really comes down to your read on his "act". If he's faking frustration, you're toast. Not sure why you'd even bet the turn if that's your read.

If we're indifferent toward his actions, then I like a smaller lead on the turn. I'm curious what the rest of the community here thinks about this play. Bet like $90 or $100. If you get flat called, he's pretty capped, and then I'd recommend jamming any non-spade river. If you get raised on the turn, easy fold.

Fold.

Why did you bet turn given this read? c/c is fine if you're not ready to give up.

AP, fold river.

Pretty sure I'm never folding a TPTK this clean for this price vs an unknown. As for the read I don't think it's really too interpretable without a correlation so it's just a non factor for me. AP jam instead of checking, but I would've checked flop and looked for action on the next 2 streets. You have a lot of equal/better hands without a that benefit more from protection.

AP, its another tough spot with short stack sizes and 1p hands. You really have limited tools in capped games and it becomes super volatile.

Pot is so bloated OTT after getting 2 callers that I don't mind a check unless we are up against a total fish who will stack off with AT, AJ, etc. If he bombs the turn, I can probably fold given the reverse-tell theatrics as well.

It’s something I noticed during the hand but didn’t give too much credit for, and didn’t even think about until after the hand played out. I don’t rely on my ability to read live tells and prefer to go off betting patterns instead.

If I didn’t give the info about his live tell, would you jam or call off river?

You’re checking TPTK on that board 5 ways? I think we get plenty of value from worse and don’t want to give free cards to a broadway or flush. Thought about checking turn for pot control but with 2 callers I wanted to charge any draws that decided to float.

Given my action up until the river, it felt super weak to just c/f river. Felt like I made a mistake, but it’s somewhat comforting to know people here agree with my fold.

these

You get a live read you're crushed, but continue blazing away? Makes no sense.

OTOH if you discount this read, fine blastoff river yourself.

From my experience, sighs and shrug bets/calls/raises from recs are very nutted. It's definitely one of the most reliable live tells.

Sucks because despite major signs that we should fold, these whacky villains have an underratedly high spazz % and sometimes have no idea what they are doing.

Grunch - he could very easily be value betting a weaker ace. His A-rag hit, he’s an idiot at poker so he’s putting on a show. Of course the drama reads strength but don’t under estimate V’s ability to judge relative hand strength. He has a pair of A’s! Has to be good, right? I probably beat V into the put and expect to be good 50-75% of the time. Easy game.

And to clarify, V isn’t ‘turning his hand into a bluff’, V has no idea he’s behind and is betting his hand. If H did this he’d Be turning his hand into a bluff but V’s don’t think that way.

While I agree that V thinks he’s nutted, I don’t give him credit for knowing what hands are nutted here. V could have A10 or AJ and think he flopped the world.

That being said I think 25+% of the time we’re beat here. A5 is V’s most likely holding with this line.

His hand looks like 89ss or missed spades. I’d bet river in case he is callng you down with AT or AJ. Agree that people aren’t bluffing river often but I’d prefer to lead because we are callng anyway and missing value.

Am I missing something? This looks like the easiest snap call in the world to me. Tbh I probably just jam river myself though with the Ks in our hand, but if I am checking to induce, then I'm never folding.

I could fold to a turn raise but no way am I folding after I check to him on the brickiest of brick rivers and he's got like 50 combos of missed draws and we're getting an amazing price on a call.

Results?

I folded, he shows me an ace, and tells me he had AT. Not sure I believe him though, he wouldn't show me the other card. Likely AQ IMO

I’m checking turn to keep his range wide. Maybe check-calling a brick on river to pick off a bluff. You never know how good or bad an unknown is. I find it’s safest to give them credit until you see otherwise.

Yeah he’s never shoving AT, makes no sense. Always aces up.