Err, do ppl really think a tightish player is likely to lead into 3 ppl OOP with a bare FD, then call a decent raise? He has Ax+ almost always, could even have AJ-AK because he's passive AF, raise/fold river to $170.

Who does this? I don't mean who might do it, I mean how can we ever possibly have a read that V doesn't lead OTF w/ a FD?

Grunch IMO the flop raise is too small with 500 effective.

not

Haven't really heard anyone mention what he thinks we could have. If he has any trashy Ax, which seems pretty likely since he checked in the blinds and then led out, he is probably calling a raise because he thinks it's very likely that we have a flush draw ourselves and because people just don't fold top pair on the flop very often in my experience.

Although it's obv possible that he has a FD, I find it less likely that a tightish player would lead out into a 4 way pot oop with a non nut fd. Seems like he would be more likely to c/c or c/r if he had a combo draw or a pair+draw.

Check on the turn seems good because in his mind he is now beat by anything that would raise the flop. If he made the flush then you save money. If he has an ace, you might be able to get him to call a river bet if he thinks your check back is fishy or he improves to 2 pair or trips where he would probably fold to a turn bet.

I'm never folding to the river bet because you don't know the guy very well at all and I see people all the time think "he didn't bet the turn and I have top pair or 2 pair, I better bet". He could easily be betting with any ace so I think it's a pretty easy call.

Flop: I would raise bigger, like 70-80.

Turn: We effectively have position now right? I think we need to bet the turn when it checks around to us.

As played, river is an EZ call IMO

I wouldn't worry much about a CR on the turn. If we do get CR on turn, what hands would villain bluff a turn CR with? Fold to CR because most villains aren't capable of bluffing in that spot OOP. Also, we did raise the flop so we can rep the flush when it hits on the turn.

+1

Agree with Playbig too that turn should be a bet/fold. He's not gonna bet/call Ax on the flop and then c/r a heart kicker OTT so if he raises he's got it.

I would only check the turn if we have a good read he will hero call a large bet or raise OTR.

Assuming we bet $120 OTT and he calls, what do we do:

a) when he leads for say $200 on blank rivers?

b) when the river blanks and he checks to us?

a) call. he's not a nit that only bets with a flush. Not folding a set to an unknown

b) b/f. He would prob bet with a flush, even randoms.

Lol, there is an assload of twopair combos and if he is bad enough Ax hands that will sigh call a small raise OTR.

Folding is totally out of the question.