V is new to table; 50's middle eastern; seems decent; 1k eff

5/5 1k eff; 7 handed

V Ep2 limp, H 25 in CO
btn call (tight passive) & limper calls
964xss (75)
X, H 40, BTN fold, V xr 115, H call
Turn Tx (300)
V Bets 140, H call
River 7x (580)
V checks.....

Bet Overpairs?
Best Bluffs to bet?

Over pairs can't bet for value because villain will have too many sets/straights/two pair that are going to call and the whiffed draws/bluffs won't call. His EP limp/call means no over pairs except maybe JJ. Betting an overpair is hoping to get hero called by single pairs putting hero on a whiffed flush draw and that is too narrow without a read on villain.

For the same reason no bluffs, the only hands a whiffed spade draw can get to fold are other whiffed spade draws and bluffs that have a single pair. The board is just too strong to bluff without a good read on villain's range and play style.

Against villains that have a weak range after checking river then either a value bet or a bluff could be OK but you don't know which. If villain will do some trapping/pot control with strong hands then neither might be good.

Probably checking full-range on the flop, but having a betting range isnt going to change the EV too much. Im definitely checking back all overpairs and weaker 2 pairs. Probably betting good two-pairs, sets, straights, and missed flushed draws for 1/3 pot on the river.

Is QJdd a hand we should be betting here OTR?

We are targeting missed NFD, flush draws that paired, 9x, 57, etc

I'm not calling QdJd on the flop if I cbet and I probably check 3 ways

Board is super draw heavy, we don't block spades, and we are IP getting 3:1.

I think vs a standard V it's a pretty easy fold, but this guy has been raising a lot postflop and shutting down on later streets.

Really thought I should raise turn since that bet sizing doesn't suggest a strong hand, b/c he should be betting more on such a wet board.

It certain falls into the range of hands to consider it, you have almost no showdown value.

Without a better read on villain I hate this situation though. There is no way to tell if it's a good idea or not. Is his turn bet weak or is he trying to keep your weak hands in the pot after his 87 hits? Is his river check weak? Is planning to check/call with weak two pair/top pair that don't really like this run out? Is he trapping with the nuts? Will he station you off with weak single pairs?

This is really a live read situation. If you are confident he is weak then go for it sometimes.

Mostly I would fold flop with QdJd on this board. Even if villain is weak you don't have much to play with. If he is really bluff raising that often then consider a flop reraise or call flop just to bluff turn.

You mean turn overpairs into a bluff? I don't think that's necessary. You're certainly not value betting them.

If you ever show up here with whiffed draws other than NFD, that'd be where you'd start. NFD has a tiny sliver of SDV and it's a poor blocker in this situation. It's probably okay to bluff those in practice just based on sizing tells, but it's definitely not a fist pump. In theory, you need to mix in NFDs as well but holding those hands present huge problems in practice and would be spew here.

Hence the QdJd river spot...

Any merit to QQ+ as a razor thin value bet OTR (like $180 or so). V's semibluffs may have backed into TP and we can still get looked up by 9x...this is live poker after all.

We shouldn't really be defending OTF with random overs with a non-nut BDFD and a single-gap BDSD when we're x/red by a sane player in a 3-way pot on a board that's bad for us. We can run thought experiments on what situations I might bluff here, but the reality is in practice I'm probably not really ever doing it.

Vbetting overpairs OTR is just letting results get to you. It's not a sound approach to this spot at all.

I probably only value bet 97 or better on the river and check back everything else, including overpairs.

Like normally I'm a huge advocate for making thin river value bets, but the flop x/r just seems to polarise his range so much and it's hard to extract thin value off a polar range.