Timing tells?

How comfortable did the villain look?

Pretty garbage spot TBH. We're getting almost 4-1 on a call but how in the world are we good 1 out of 5 times? We have shown nothing but strength and he's stuffing the river on a paired board. This is super duper nutted.

I fold and give myself a KITN.

Yes, relevant too. He took about 90secs or more. This included counting chips, checking my stack, moving chips around in chunks, a small sigh (albeit he was making strange noises already)


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Snap call river because V does weird stuff like tank shove AJ for $300 into 2 ppl (1 all-in on turn) on A high board when pot is like $1k. Pretty sure you see Ax/missed clubs vast majority of the time. If he has a 6, pay that man his money.

Yes but he did that after this hand

Wow, that sucks. I'm not sure I can fold after putting in more than half my stack on this board against this guy. I would not have bet river, though. Death's advice of a KITN to self is a good idea.

Whatever you do... eliminate this line of thinking from your mind.

Rather consider the pot odds (or implied odds) being offered.

The "... x% of my stack" is a fine rule of thumb for unsophisticated and inexperienced players.

Yeah, don't bet river unless you are willing to call the last $300. This is not a bet/fold spot.

Yes it is.

It just takes discipline

Hero folded. Villain showed q10cc

wow, that's a special kind of villain.

I'd be bumhunting this dude from here to eternity.

Don't really understand the purpose of a smallish river bet in this spot since we now chop with all other Aces (except AQ/A8/A6 which we lose to). We should either shove if we think we can fold out a chop or check/decide depending on sizing and live reads.

River bet was a big mistake. Agree shove is better to fold out a chop but didn't have the stones for that in game.

Prefer a check call though

Interesting spot hm... :?

Bluff catching the river is good... unless you know that he won't bluff his missed draws at all being SD & FD/@ 0 frequency (Given your reads that he has low AFQ)

Still weird because i expect villain to have a raising range OTF or OTT in this spot. Meaning he might be capped here.

Villain seems very loose preflop by your reads and i feel like given his line up until the river he is capped which is good because betting becomes +EV if we know the best hands he can here is Ax weaker then ours.

It seems close between bluff catching and getting v to fold out all his Ax for a chop...
How agro has he been OTR in certain spots given you said he x-calls down a lot? WSD %?
Will he fold TP to a triple barrel?

The EV between betting/shoving and checking here is close the 6 improves nothing in his value range tho which is good sort of lol. I would x-call yeah... Unless i had SICK reads on this villain (you mention he is unknown so...) i wouldn't try this play mainly just coz unknown...

Seems like your standardish loose passive guy who is semi competent btw..

Oops. Sorry, I think bet/folding was your worst option.

Sit at his table whenever possible!

Lol.

So what would raise the river that wouldn't have raised the flop or turn... Your telling me v thinks we never have a FD when we bet the flop or turn in this spot...

Ugh i shouldn't have looked at the results... late to the party eh.

Fold

I dont like betting the river tho. It's over playing our hand in that spot imo. We have top pair med kicker so we dont need 3 streets of value esp. vs that kind of a player.

I would check and evaluate the size of his bet - he's checking back all low aces.

Dont matter its still a fold

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Yeah it is over-playing i agree but we aren't trying to get value we are sort of semi-bluffing but not really because we are never behind his cappedish range at this point.

Also OP your reads on villain were wrong he is pretty aggressive to call, call, then raise you OTR with mid pair...

well yes they did. the reads were definitely accurate to that point, but part of the hh 'lesson' is that 90 mins isn't enough to give a complete picture of villain.

there's another player from the table posting up thread and he can attest that my description was accurate to this point. he then made a similar river bluff an hour or so later, but to that point, he had seemed loose passive for the most part

Aye... i still think we are ahead enough of the time to call OTR given run out, him being capped, and the fact that he gets to the river with a weak range a lot of the time.

It is a super weird/speical spot because how do we even get to bet/call with TPMK OTR in this spot lol... Happens so rarely or never at all i guess

I said in the OP that I got lost in the hand and this is the key piece of thinking that I rushed on the river. You're right, I believe he is raising his sets and Aces up hands on the turn. Potentially he may flat twice with flopped bottom two pair, but I think that's pretty much the only part of his shoving range that I'm behind.

I believe river is check/call>bet/call>shove>bet/fold>check/fold

there was an interesting conversation in the chat thread a few days ago about whether I can/should check back flop, to avoid playing a bloated pot oop with a relatively face up hand.

Obviously here, I thought I was playing a station and got two streets of value from a dominated hand, but i do also think checking flop has some merit

I like this idea this hand is very good to have in our x-call range, FD's calling regardless etc... But i thought it'll be more +EV to bet as well given he's not very competent. And his flop tendencies matter as well if he will bet his entire range, but fold his midpairs to a bet etc... and whether we want to protect in this spot

Same here man lol thought this guy was a station/classic loose passive who doesn't care to exploit ppl... guess now we know what to do given his horrible bluff spew OTR (so he will get out of line vs. us and in general).

other issue with betting flop is that we have to fold against a raise to a lot of villains and again, our hand is mainly face up

Well we don't "have to" fold the flop if we face a raise esp if we are the top of our range, with this hand specifically we have way better hands to bet/call "theoretically" so idm folding this but in general bet/fold majority of our range... Really depends on villain's tendencies.

We are going to be betting a polarized range in this spot and if we are deep enough we can bet/call some FD's maybe... And decide to have a bet/calling range maybe very villain specific with said info above.