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5/5 - Overambitious bluff?

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01-27-2019 , 08:28 PM

profNIT

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 24

5/5 live poker.. we are 800 usd deep.
action folds to us in highjack an we open 108s to 15.
Button and blinds all call
Flop is 9

We bet 40, only button calls.
Turn: 8

we check, button bets 60, we call
River: (pot:230) 8

Villain bets 140 and we jam for 695.

Thoughts?

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01-27-2019 , 08:46 PM

Hal N.

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 174

Bluffing twice on the same street would’ve looked stronger (the bluff, rebluff).

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01-27-2019 , 09:03 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Good spot for a bluff in theory since we have lots of boats in our range and villain should be capped to flushes. In practice it’s hard to get people to lay down flushes, even though you perfectly rep a full house. Wouldn’t mind a try but don’t be surprised when you get looked up.

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01-27-2019 , 09:48 PM

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

I dont think hes ever folding a flush and def not folding any boat. There's also a fairly good chance you have the best hand. I really don't like this at all.

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01-27-2019 , 09:57 PM

profNIT

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I dont think hes ever folding a flush and def not folding any boat. There's also a fairly good chance you have the best hand. I really don't like this at all.

What boats does he have though?
i never see him having 66/77/99 here, maybe 78s or 98s (and we block the 8, so that is a total of 2 combos)

i d like to think most decent players fold alot of flushes in this spot since i will be underbluffing this runout a ton.

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01-27-2019 , 09:57 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I dont think hes ever folding a flush and def not folding any boat. There's also a fairly good chance you have the best hand. I really don't like this at all.

He hardly ever has a boat when the turn is a 4-liner and brings in the flush. We only have the best hand if he’s bluffing, and with what? If this got posted from villain’s perspective on 2+2 everyone is snap folding a flush.

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01-27-2019 , 10:04 PM

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

What matters is would some random donk fold a flush and the answer is very unlikely.

Why cant he have a boat? He probably doesnt but he could. Lots of people are betting a set when checked to on the turn. Should they be? Maybe, maybe not. That depends on what kinds of hands he thinks Hero can have. Lots of people would bet the turn before a 4th flush card hits. Hero doesnt have a T all that often and almost never has a flush and checks/calls the turn.

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01-27-2019 , 10:08 PM

profNIT

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

wouldnt you say that most villains raise their boat on the 976 two-color flop?

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01-27-2019 , 10:24 PM

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

Reads on V?

V's image of hero?

If you are gonna run big bluffs, then this stuff is really important.

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01-27-2019 , 10:31 PM

#10

Minatorr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I dont think hes ever folding a flush and def not folding any boat. There's also a fairly good chance you have the best hand. I really don't like this at all.

What exactly do we beat?

And yeah sure we are good here like some non zero % of the time vs spazzes/button clicking, but I doubt it's a "fairly good chance".

In theory this is a great bluff jam but in practice it's a call or fold. Probably calling, we chop sometimes and win very occasionally. Need reads on V as well. If he's scared/nit that doesnt value bet thin enough this is actually a pretty clear fold.

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01-27-2019 , 10:36 PM

#11

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by profNIT

wouldnt you say that most villains raise their boat on the 976 two-color flop?

Im sure you mean raise their set on that flop. Some do, some dont.

Personally, sometimes I would and sometimes I wouldn't. I would be a lot less likely to raise a set here when its heads up, although since your raise came from LP, your range is a lot wider so I would most likely would raise the flop....but that doesnt mean every one would. You gave us no reads at all.

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01-27-2019 , 10:39 PM

#12

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minatorr

What exactly do we beat?

And yeah sure we are good here like some non zero % of the time vs spazzes/button clicking, but I doubt it's a "fairly good chance".

In theory this is a great bluff jam but in practice it's a call or fold. Probably calling, we chop sometimes and win very occasionally. Need reads on V as well. If he's scared/nit that doesnt value bet thin enough this is actually a pretty clear fold.

In all the hours Ive played, Ive seen it all. I wouldnt be surprised to see the guy show up with AA here. We beat plenty of hands and since OP gave us no reads at all....I think we can easily have the best hand.

As you said, against some people its an easy fold, but against others we have the best hand. Either way, I dont see the bluff working often enough against a hand we beat for it to be a good line.

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01-27-2019 , 10:47 PM

#13

profNIT

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 24

i guess im going to have to move up stakes where they respect my raises... lol

thanks for your input guys!

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01-27-2019 , 11:23 PM

#14

aftrglw

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 504

I actually think it's a great spot and don't know what V could bet the turn with that would call the river shove. Unlike a lot of hand histories, your story makes perfect sense here and I disagree that a lot of Vs could call with a flush here.

Results?

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01-27-2019 , 11:45 PM

#15

profNIT

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by aftrglw

he had 86s and contemplated for a while before making the call

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01-27-2019 , 11:50 PM

#16

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by aftrglw

It's all about context:

If hero is stuck, tilted, and blasting stacks, then it's a terrible bluff.

If V is a level 0 drooler, then it's a terrible bluff. Is a level 0 calling station going to fold a flush on the river? Nope.

In theory it's a decent line, although you are repping pretty thin. You need the correct reads and table image for it to work. Bluffing unknowns at LLSNL is torching money.

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01-27-2019 , 11:56 PM

#17

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by profNIT

he had 86s and contemplated for a while before making the call

Okay, so you ran into the top of his range. That doesn't mean it was a good or bad bluff.

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