lol i misread the hand history, didn´t notice we 3bet...
that changes everything ofc, how can you ever fold here? as avarita once said, you gotta pry those snowman out of my cold, dead stiff fingers!

What does Villian think your range is?

as played, given Villian has been losing and you think he's tilting slightly. I think its a call, and Id be pretty happy about it. I expect villian has outs.

I agree that with ATsai that preflop is a flat and turn is a call. You need to call $1225 to win $2185, meaning you only need about 36% equity to make a call breakeven. His most likely hands are TT and 66, and they are about equally likely imo (maybe slightly weighted toward TT). KK is also very possible but slightly less likely because he'd 4bet pre with it sometimes. So even if he never has air or any worse value hand or any of the semibluff hands that that wj94 included in his range, a call should be right around breakeven; include just a few combos of these and it should be profitable.

Also I would've sized the turn bet larger.

I think this is a call. I don't think that he over bet jams w/ KK, TT here that often. I would weight him more toward the huge draws and some AA AK that he's turning into a bluff trying to get you to hero off against his (likely) draw.

I still see him having more draws as I'd expect 4 bets pre a good portion of the time w/ AA, KK, AK, and some TT. This gives more credence to 66, KTs as well. I think I have to call here.

Against his wider semi-bluffing range:

Board: Tc 8s 6h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.392% 58.39% 00.00% 668 0.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 41.608% 41.61% 00.00% 476 0.00 { AA, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, KTs, QhJh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h }

Against the above range and removing AA (assuming he 4b this pre):

Board: Tc 8s 6h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.273% 47.27% 00.00% 416 0.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 52.727% 52.73% 00.00% 464 0.00 { KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, KTs, QhJh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h }


Against only sets, straights, and KTs:

Board: Tc 8s 6h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.636% 38.64% 00.00% 255 0.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 61.364% 61.36% 00.00% 405 0.00 { KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, KcTc, KdTd, KsTs, 97s }

Against only sets and KTs:

Board: Tc 8s 6h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.421% 44.42% 00.00% 215 0.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 55.579% 55.58% 00.00% 269 0.00 { KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, KcTc, KdTd, KsTs }


So yeah, you have to call here even in a worst case scenario unless you think there's a 0% chance he has KTs, and even then it's still probably a call.

ATsai owning this thread.

Again, BIGGEST mistake in this hand is forcing the fish out. Huge leak.

In the investment world, you want the highest ROI possible. Meaning...the least amount of up front money for the biggest return. In this case, we achieve that by keeping the fish in (even tho he's passive post) and by cracking overpairs of the Tag. By 3b w/88, we exclude other investors from participating in our venture, raise SPR and narrow our villains range.

As played snap call. If he flatted KK pre closing the action, then well, pretty cool tarp, here's my stack. More often, we are up against KTs trying to iso & print monies off the fish....he interprets our 3b as light bc he iso'd the fish...plus we've been 3b'ing a bit already....therefore his range is nice and wide. Bc our 3b size, position, and dynamic makes it a great squeeze spot pre.

And if he never has bluffs in his range here, wtf @ this thread bc you played 8hrs with this guy.

Interesting spot tho for sure. I'd call & ask if he has a set. Prob try to chat him up before I called to peak into his soul cause that 'ish works against most. Lol readaments.

Yep. +1

You said villain is tilting and has probably noticed you can bet fold. For all of the reasons listed above, you shouldn't have a set in your range (unless it's kings). He may be doing this for value with something like K-10. I think his most likely holdings are the flopped straight draws that picked up flush outs. He doesn't think you can call anyway. If I played the hand this way with described reads I am never laying this down!

Hey guys, I'm not saying that villain can't have KTs here, but would you guys call the 3b with it in his position? I personally would fold (or maybe 4b) but now I'm wondering if that's a leak since people seem to think it's a likely hand in this good player's range.

Regarding K-10S, I wouldn't call it and I wouldn't put it in many good players ranges, but the initial read was that the villain was starting to tilt. I know that when I am tilting, K-10s (and sometimes even worse) is in my 3 bet calling range. And no it is not a leak, it should be folded obviously.

I only read a few posts this hand... but I agree that 3betting 88 here is horrible.