5/5 NL live, full 10 ring game. V is a very loose reg. About 4 years of history between us.
This session, same 10 ppl at table for about an hour. Mostly old-timers, guys with too many limps pre. I’m known to put aggression when in position. These games I’ve been only raising about 2-5% of hands when in the blinds, as I believe I have an edge post flop.
V- $1200
Hero-covers
Hand history:
Hero is bb – As Jc
UTG straddle to 15.
1 MP call
V on the button raise to 65.
Hero calls
UTG folds
MP folds
Pot = 165, heads up
Flop – Qs 8h 3s
Hero checks
V – 65
Hero – calls
Pot = 295
Turn – Qs 8h 3s Jh
Hero checks
V bets 160
Hero calls
Pot = 615
River – Qs 8h 3s Jh 3h
Hero checks
V bets 240
Pot = 845
Hero insta shoves with ~700
V folds
Unfortunately, when I mucked my hand, my two hole cards were flipped over (hit dealer’s hand). V was in shock, asked how I made it to the river, let alone the turn. He folded AQ, and was adamant that he was going for value with AQ the entire way, vs all my KQ QJ, missed flushes…but that my insta shove on river was the strongest move possible. He claims that a check/shove on river shows back door flush or a boat 98% of time, and he didn’t think I had that 2% to turn my missed draw into a bluff there. He believed that a missed flush would bet out on the river, trying to take down the pot, not check shove.
My thoughts- on the flop, I had ace blocker for backdoor nut flush, that his range on the button is pretty wide, and he probably has me beat on flop about 60% of the time… but, I was getting ~1/4 odds, more than okay with me to float 1 card. On turn, felt my jack was good at least 50% of the time and was willing to keep the pot on the smaller side just in case. I don’t see AQ going for value on the turn with only a half pot bet against straight/flush draws. On river, with the board pairing, I put only AA, KK, boats, and backdoor flushes raising. I see every other hand checking back. I know villain likes to bet his draws (triple barrel spades/straight not out of the question), and that he is good enough to bet second pair (AJ, KJ, JT, TT,99) for value, but this would not be the spot. So when he bet about 2/5 pot, I put him on AA, KK, or Qx, and felt that the only way for me to win was a shove, and there was too few hands that could call.
Am I crazy to have played it this way/think about it like this?
