Villain's range doesn't matter. Only his calling range matters.

If he's calling with TP, great! Value bet from here to eternity.

In my games, this is actually a pretty good board to move TP off his hand (if you're image is good). Game conditions obviously vary a lot.

Post specifies villain's range is pretty much exclusively AK, AQ, AA.


From villain's perspective, we should be either value betting light enough to make AA a call, or bluffing enough to make AA a call. Either way AA should be a call.

I agree.

If V thinks we're playing in a way that makes AA a mandatory call, he should call.

If V thinks we're nittier than that so that we're not bluffing or value betting wide enough and AA is not a mandatory call, well then it might not be a mandatory call.

I shortened this to "depends on his reads of us" but I think we're on the same page.

I am betting here, but its not exactly a bluff, id say its more of a value bet. I think its rare he has you beat here, and i think he is just as likely to call you with AQ/KK/QQ as AK, so basically he either is the type to fold his whole range and so you get FE from AK, or he calls with his whole range and you get value from AQ KK QQ.

I also think you never get raised here, so thin value is elite because it also forces calls when you actually have it (such as JJ). river bet size is fine, but on the same thought as far as value betting, i may ramp it down to 250ish to get more calls.

(i see results now that he had AA which...LOL, i guess this is the one hand he could have that a higher bet sizing forced a fold.)

how everyone in LLSNL acts when any bluff works.

What's wrong with his fold? I see all the time here when H hits a low flush or straight with better hands out there, this forum always says shove because "lol, lost of bad players can't fold sets even when they know they are beat."

V's fold was fine. Villain showing the set was the biggest error he made, apart from not betting flop. He basically just told everyone there he will fold not only sets, but the top set to pressure on scary boards.

I think villains line is fine and hero made a gutsy/great play.

If river brought a brick, hero would have lost an additional 300$ .. Nice runout and wp!

You really think villain can call here with QQ or KK?

its not so much about whether he will call, bit about what youre betting against. I think most of the time itll fold AK and so it has FE, but i think sometimes it gets called by AQ KK QQ and itll get value. I dont think im ever getting shown better, although apparently i was wrong.

The value of thin value bets is it punishes people who bluffcatch with too wide of a range (aka QQ) or who dont bluffcatch wide enough (aka AK or T9 or 6x). 99 times out of 100 as V, QQ and T9 will have exactly the same value cuz most people with hero's description are holding a polarized range here of Jx+ and absolutely nothing. Of course hero cant have much air here because what air is he calling with OTT? like... Q9 is the worst hand even possibly in hero's range unless hero was just blindly floating the turn.

I think this bet gets called by worse a solid 0% of the time

As kind of a broader point, the only thing V really did wrong here is getting dealt a big hand out of position. So, nothing......

This whole thread is a great example of how hard it is, even for good players, to play big pots oop when stacks are DEEP.

Considering he chuckleheads that populate llsnl tables, I'd take the over.

Well, and he showed it. That was the other issue.

Playing OOP is hard, no doubt there. But he could have been on the button and if Hero made the same play, top set is still bluff catching here.

I was going to say size river smaller. The fact that he folded what he had is probably a sign that this is correct. I assume you were betting for value right?