Hero bb: 830- tag winning image, has only shown down winners. Button villain has a ton of respect for my game and knows I am a winning player.

CO: 400- table changing Asian who just sat down.

Button 830- generally a tag but is tilted. Has been running bad and has gotten his money in good several times losing every time. Has lost about 2000. He is opening up a lot more in LP and had been calling a lot. Has been drinking and is most likely buzzed. Study's the game but Doesn't appear to be a winning player. He knows all types of poker terms and likes to discuss them at the table. Has been 3! Often with hands like QJo vs EP opens.

SB passive nit 800ish

Folds to CO who limps, button raises to 20, SB calls, co throws in 20 to call the button raise out of turn, hero decides to 3! to 75 with AdQc, co calls, button says now I have to call and calls, SB folds.

Flop is 543dd, hero checks, CO checks, button bets 110 and starts talking about his range and how we have AK etc etc. I think he could be betting here very wide plus his sizing seems pretty small. On one hand villain is tilted and with decent equity won't be folding much but at the same time I know villain has a ton of respect for me and my game so we may have decent FE here.

My default is to fold here and not think about it but can we do anything besides fold here?

Once you check to villain you probably lose most of your FE vs a tilted villain. I don't think villain is going to give you any significant credit for trapping with an over pair on this flop in a multiway pot and a set/straight is really unlikely after the flop 3 bet. So villain will mostly give you air or a flush draw, and a tilted villain with any pair probably gets it in.

Anything but a fold is a disaster here.

You 3bet and then checked the flop, so you're representing exactly what you have: AK or AQ. A check/raise on the flop makes zero sense and is a terrible idea in general, but especially here against a tilted Villain.

Attempting to stone bluff a tilted player is rarely wise. If you wanted to try it - and I don't think you should - it was imperative to continuation bet the flop.

I like a flat pre instead of bloating a pot OOP. As played, I also would have checked the flop, and check/folding here is the only option. Villain is tilting hard and he will be spewing chips soon enough. No need to force the action here.

Does this mean when we do have 88+ in this spot we should be looking c/r?

Looks like a value/suck bet from BTN. If you had an overpair or AKdd or AQdd you would certainly be betting this flop. To me, that is why he can get away with betting small.

Against a range of 22-JJ (he'd prolly 4bet QQ+, maybe even JJ+ not sure), KQdd, KJdd, QJdd, JTdd, T9dd, 98dd, 87dd, and 76s we have 33.1% equity.

Pot would be $1765 if he calls.
So (where x is his calling frequency)
x*(-765 + .331*1765) + (1-x)*335 = 0.
-180.78x + 335 - 335x = 0
335 = 517x
x = 64.9%. So he needs to fold 35% of the time.

Out of the range that we gave him of 62 combos total, he would need to fold ~22 combos.
That's 88-TT and JJ 2/3rd of the time.


If we think that he will fold 22-44 some decent portion of the time pre flop and he has
Against a range of 55-JJ, KQdd, KJdd, QJdd, JTdd, T9dd, 98dd, 87dd, and 76s we have 35.6% equity.

x*(-765 + .356*1765) + (1-x)*335 = 0
-136.66x + 335 - 335x = 0
335 = 517
x = 71%. So he needs to fold 29% of the time of his 50 combos or ~15 combos.
Now he only needs to fold 88/99 and half of TT.

Is it really such a clear ck/fold here?
If we think that he can bet some weaker holdings on the flop and will lay them down to pressure, there is a reasonable case for ck/shoving here I think.

This gets even better for us if we think that he would bet larger on the flop with a set or straight as the board is pretty wet and he wouldn't want to encourage action from other draws.

I don't think tilted villain is ever folding 22, 33, or 44 pre flop here. He is tilted, on the button, and very obviously priced in to set mine vs two opponents with the pot already being $175 and $55 more for him to call.

Tilted Villain isn't likely to fold 88, 99, or TT on the flop. In particular he is not folding to a 3bet check/raise which pretty transparently is over cards.

Also, CO is still in the hand and there is a small percentage chance he flopped a set or something else big and we raise/shove right into him. Not good.

I rarely attempt to pull stone bluffs on tilted players, so that's why I say this is a check/fold scenario. We are OOP with air vs two opponents on a wet flop, I don't think it's +EV to pursue this. However, if we were going to, we'd have to c-bet the flop to continue to tell a story.

As played, check/raising here is disastrous.

I think check/fold is fine. Even if he is tilted, we have CO behind -- who limp/called a 3bet (what the heck?).

We could have taken a stab at the flop, but we'd have to bet/fold and I don't see the merit.

Once you deny to C-bet flop = In a three-way pot, Fold to V 110, pick a better to make $.



Having said that, One and Done C-bet is acceptable I think on flop. Try to take it down. You rep an overpair, great. When they don't have overpairs themselves, or good draws, most of the time they will fold. I wouldn't double-barrel, bleeding too much at that point.
Just giving up and not C-betting is also acceptable.

But we have almost 40% equity against a hand like 88-JJ.
We're 53% against 98dd and JTdd type hands.

Saying that it is a stone bluff is pretty well diminshing the value that our hand against a decent portion of his range (two overs, bdnfd, gutter ball, and sometime we are outright ahead).
It's fine if you don't like to play, but lets at least be realistic about how we are doing here.

check/fold flop

Thanks for the breakdown, I do think he is going bigger here for value with his made hands. In fact, because he had been getting sucked out often he began making ridiculous over shoves in previous hands when he had a made hand because he was tilted and losing. His small sizing otf seems to indicate a lack of absolute strength.

The only reason why I even thought about doing anything is because of your post in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...18/?highlight= . Although the spots are very different, I wouldn't of even thought about a c/r here without this prior discussion. Still not sure how good a c/r is here. Seemed like it may be a good spot though.

Are you not even concerned about CO because he checked? Remember, this is a guy who limp/called a 3bet. He might be checking for deception or some other ridiculous reason. Maybe he's waiting for tilted btn to bet?

Check/raise is sexy until CO comes over the top -- at least he only started with $400.

It can be workable as a move to mix up your play, particularly against a very aggressive opponent. But only if we can be really sure that somebody after hero will bet worse. Particularly with the middle strength 88-JJ hands almost every additional card makes Hero's situation worse. Anything higher and AK/AQ gets there, anything lower and sets/straights get there, any flush cards can beat hero. Even if a card doesn't beat hero it becomes very hard to make any money because hero won't have any idea if they are ahead or behind.

And never do it very often, because it's very obvious and exploitable. If you get into the habit of check/raising this sort of board then even half decent players will notice and bet their good hands into you while chasing their draws cheaply.

100 pre, X/F flop.