5/5 effective 600.

BUT is a good winning pro, he plays very tight pre but looser in position.

BUT opens to 20, hero SB 88cs to 80. BUT calls. (i play 3bet or fold from SB)
HU
(165) flop AA7hdd
hero bets 45. calls
(255) turn 5s
x x
(255) riv 5c
x 125 hero?

well im not sure v would fold the QJ on the flop in position to a 1/4 pot bet...
so would v fire with air on the turn or wait to the river? Betting turn looks scarier because he knows i will fear a river barrel as well, so checking back turn and betting riv looks a bit more like value :thinking emoji:

Ya, this is really a who’s leveling who type of spot against a good player.
Such a coin flip spot honestly.
I can’t find anything wrong with calling or folding.
I think I lean fold because he seems very capable of betting OP’s for thin value as well, and his sizing seems very okay with a call. But is this a further level? I know I do that against thinking opponents as a level. lol
Flip a coin on the table imo.

His river betting range is going to be all his Ax,JJ+,all his bricked FDs less than King high. If he floats hands like KhJh on flop then I think were supposed to call. I ran it in GTO+ ( which I've been doing lately with live hands) and it shows
3.7% raise with 8s8c (100%), call 41.8% with 8c8h and 8s8h and fold 54.5% with the other 3 combos that have 8d.

In game I would probably fold because hes probably not calling the same range I already have considering it's a 6max button range. But that means hes also going to have less 5x so it could shift the other way if his range will consist of more broadways and mid suited connectors.

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Is flip a coin at the table ever actually an answer?

Not really, I was definitely joking.
Still waiting for the right chance to do it myself.

Yeah I feel like this spot is such a mind fkkk
Maybe I should just play MDF?

for you to have a tough time calling river, he'd have to a) x/ turn with a good amount of trips and JJ-99 and b) not overbluff river

I mean I wouldn’t literally flip a coin at the table. But you can look at your watch and if the second hand is 0-30 seconds call and 30-60 seconds fold. I don’t particularly use these randomizes as final decision makers but I’ve read some people do.

Marsh

Ive literally flipped a coin at the table at least 10 times in big pots. When the decision is that close, you might as well use it to your advantage and flip a coin to make yourself look gambly.

I dont think this is that close though. I would fold (and I hate the 3 bet or fold from the blinds mentality but to each his own). Id rather keep the pot smaller with 88 when OOP to a strong pro.

I think the sizing of the flop bet makes the river spot tricky here bc he's going to be calling with almost his entire range on the flop if he is as described

I prefer a check on the flop or a slightly larger sizing to deter him from floating

Very interesting hand, looking forward to the result.

Hero folds

Unlike a previous poster I don’t think bigger pairs are in his river betting range here. I mean you 3 out of the SB that’s strong...and if anything your hand looks like even TT-QQ face up...but then again, if he’s floating you and doesn’t have an A he might bet the turn instead of checking back.

At the end, if he has showdown value but thinks you have a bigger pair I think he checks back, and if he has Ax he of course takes this line, but he also takes this lines with ATC he played on the button. You do block 87 which is a hand he could also take this line with but again, I think he’s checking that back so we are down to Ax or nothing

Really close but think I call here TBH. I’d be interested also in looking him up to see his hand if he’s someone you okay with regularly since it’s so close.

i think youre right about just flatting pre. I picked up the habit of 3bet or fold from SB just because i was playing online and the BB just goes crazy squeezing when u flat from SB. Also it kinda turns your ranges face up but I think ill try flatting 22-TT in the future from the SB in Live games

As played, I'd make a crying call.

Hero should have more big pairs in his 3b range. I think a capable opponent is more likely to use hands like KQs/QJs as blockers, rather than thin value a hand like TT. Could be leveling myself.

Flop/turn - I might use a delayed 3b.

Seems like black 88 is a pretty nice combo to call off with. So I wouldn’t worry about the leveling and pay the man his money if he has it.

The only reason I don’t actually prefer this to a hand like QQ is because he could be going for value with worse than QQ but better than 88. But big pairs block his flop high card peels that may elect to use a line like this as a bluff.


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I thought about this but maybe he doesnt check turn with TT because he’s afraid of J Q or K otr

Yes but your downbet, x line has plenty of Aces waiting for V to catch up. I don't think he can do anything other than to check back his range, much of which has SDV, and evaluate river. Of course if he has an Ace, he's waiting for you to catch up anyway.

My only minor criticism of your line is that I think you need to bet river after downbet, x line. I think b/f here otr is better than x/c.

If you lead river, his 88-JJ has the MDF problem. Now you have it at the bottom of your range. And of course, you employ the Sklansky "bluff to block your opponent's bluff" axiom.

That said, his sizing wants a call. And it's easy to level ourselves into a fold with the mind games etc. So it's a gross spot and a coin flip like everyone says from the bottom of our range. But I think I still prefer leading the river after taking your line.

If I bet only $45 on the flop and check turn and river, I'm calling this river bet.

Does anyone like a really stupid small bet like $30 on the flop? If hand played out the same we could count on him having a lot more air on this river. It's kind of dumb but I think people don't play too well against it.

To me, $30 is about the same as $45 on this flop -- the pot is $165, and I think the hand would play out the same, except the river bet might be a bit smaller. I guess that makes is "easier" to call, but we are either ahead or not.

(I wouldn't bet $30 or $45.)

Bad line. Bet turn. Ship river.

AP you have no alternative but check fold.

??

Why is this a good 3 barrel candidate exactly?

I would never flat here against a pro or any reg who isn’t a big nit pre OTB for that matter, good sizing pre.

Flop seems ok, turn i’d probably continue firing. He’ll make a lot of mistakes ott with his range vs a dbl barrel and it makes the rest of the hand easier to play. Tho the latter is a byproduct of the turn barrel, not saying that we are dbl barreling to make the hand easier to play

Ap river is kinda whatever, if you wanna be a hero raising is better but im not a fan of turning random hands into bluffs

Obv you have plenty of actual/perceived Ax, and 88 unblocks every pair/bway/FD combo he has, and the majority of his range is going to unblock your Ax. He should be aware of all of this. So, when you make the small cbet otf, you know you are getting called by 90% of his range (this is good), and nothing is going to change on most turns, like this one which means 88 is an excellent bet bet. The river paring 5 doesn't change much (had he called 1/3 pot, 1/2 pot) given he is simply calling down Ax on most any river not too deep. But, being about to fold out 77-KK at all/some frequency or any 5xdd he might have somehow had, with your worst hand is ownage.

You did all the standard stuff heading to turn but then lost your way. 3b pre, good. Bet flop smallish, good. Everyone knows what's up to this point. Checking turn.... nooooooo, unless you simply choose to give up (which is also ok, but that's the line you commit to when you check turn). Also, you aren't going to need to start checking turn w some Ax here either once you 1/3 pot flop because again, what's changed? You are going to want to maximize range equity by betting turn with hands that benefit from doing so. Messy, but ideally that makes sense.