This hand is going to serve as a litmus test of sorts to see if you are a pro poker player or not. And for the record in the moment I made the wrong decision so let's see if you can get it right. I almost had to smack myself after this hand, I know better.
Commerce Casino 5/5 300-500 game

Hero ($2800): 31yo white guy stacks and towers of checks. been running over the table getting good hands outdrawing opponents hitting turns when they slowplay flopped monsters. solid scary aggressive image.
Villain ($600) : younger guy mid late 20s new to the table not crazy but more active than the rest of the nits at the table.

The table is short 6 handed and everyone is pretty inactive except me and villain.

UTG folds Hero UTG+1 raises to 25 with 54ss. Villain calls everyone else folds.

FLOP ($55) J42dd

Hero bets $25 villain calls
standard

Turn($105) 7r
Hero bets $60 villain calls
i had a "feeling" like he was on a draw so I don't want to give him any free cards.

River ($225) 8r

Hero check, villain bets $160.

We think about it for a few minutes and then eventually turn to villain and ask do you have nine-ten of diamonds and he lets out a little chuckle and says "no that would be good though wouldn't it"

What should we do? Why?
What do you think he has? Why?

Please grunch, I'll give you some awesome valuable breakdown later if its not super obvious to you now. The answer to this spot and a million others just like it are super trivial and easy to approach once you figure out the glaringly obvious tell in this hand history. Show me your chops!

6-handed so you're in the HJ? Opening pre is marginal but I guess fine.
Check flop, you get called by a ton of hands that are ahead of you, and even the drawing hands usually have two overcards.
Check turn, our hand is not strong enough to be worth protecting here with a bet.
River would sometime be a hero call, because all the draws whiffed (other than 56) and I wouldn't expect someone to value bet Jx here unless he hit two pair. Usually fold river though, because people don't bluff enough and sometimes he's bluffing with a hand that beats us. His talk makes more likely to fold, and I assume he has some very strong hand that isn't T9. He's almost certainly telling the truth that he doesn't have T9, but if he were bluffing he'd be unlikely to admit he doesn't have the nuts.

I bet flop just the same to deny equity from overcards and usually dust my hands and be done with the hand. If V has aggressive tendencies I think you should change the way you play other combos on this board (Like checking the turn with AJ), but not this one.

Seems like a bluff, but I probably still fold because I have 54. It would suck really bad to lose to 89 or 55 or 66. That said V has like no sets or two pair, so I guess it'd have to be thin value with a J using a balanced sizing to trick a weaker hand into hero calling, but stuff like that doesn't go down in these games often. With no reads it just has to something though, right?

You elicited a response from V that indicates a strong hand, and you would need a good reason to believe that it's a false tell. Maybe there's something in the exact words he used? T9dd would be good as opposed to the hand he actually has which is...another combo of T9?

Normally when a villain tells you that he does not have one of the combos that beats you it's because he has another hand that does beat you. Villain is removing one of the hands from his range that beats you so he's trying to make it more likely that you will call. I mean why would you tell someone that you don't have one of the hands that beats him unless you had another hand that did beat him?

If V was bluffing he wouldn't say he doesn't have Td9d. He would just stay silent or he would say something like "Maybe" or "It's possible" in response to your question as he wants to keep one of the hands in his range that does beat you. This way it's more likely that you will fold.

Pre is fine, Gets worse though if your standard open is 5x
Check flop
Check turn

I agree with CWsports....villains reaction likely indicates he has another hand that still beats you. Since no other T9 combos should make it to the turn, and a set probably raises you on the turn, my guess would be that villain has 78dd

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Is the test to see how far we get before we realize this is a troll?

Bc i got to here:

'Grats on moving out of the 40bb cap games, Rich.

Cash out pre

As stated above, villain removed a hand that beats you from his range. They normally don't do this without a strong hand. So from a reads perspective, based on what you said, it's a fold... In a vacuum, I think this spot is still mostly a fold. For value, villain has AJ (and maybe some other Jx hands), 56, 78s, J8s, and possibly a few sets. As bluffs, villain has some one pair hands that beat you. Sure he has some missed flush draws and maybe wheel draws, but given the relatively static nature of the board, I expect him to check these back a fair amount of the time.... Otoh, you have lots of Jx hands, 99-TT and maybe some overpairs in your range, and possibly nutted hands looking to x/r river. I don't think you need to be calling with 4th pair.

i think you should not leave us in the dark and just teach us.

btw i think doug polk would say to go with your feeling

I think I give up after he calls flop and checking turn, as played I'm folding.

A few thoughts:

I was going back and forth between checking and betting flop but I think I ultimately like betting better. It's going to be really tough to play this board OOP as we are going to have to fold a lot of runouts (check folding sucks too because we do have the best hand here a good amount). Betting seems to be the better play as we deny equity and protect, and we can simultaneously (credibly) run with a bluff easier having bet the flop as i imagine most of our OPs and sets are doing on this flop. I think a lot of this applies to the turn as well. We still could be betting with the best hand and denying equity but we're also keeping up the story for a TB if he just calls again.

This seems to be a good river to go ahead and bomb. We block sets (if slowplayed), we block the second nuts (and should have 56 here plenty as well if we're doing this with 54) and we don't block any diamonds. Seems like a good spot to overbet and get diamonds + any bare jacks/pps to fold.

As played, I think we have better hands as pure bluff catchers (jacks,98,T8 no diamonds etc) though it can't be that bad givien villains line. He seems to only rep a rivererd 2p or backed into a straight and we block some slowplayed sets.

As for the "tell" I'm no really sure. I lean towards what others said about removing that hand so you're more comfortable calling him (as he wants) but I just don't think I'd feel strong enough about it to make a decision based off of it.

People bluffing usually don't remove nutted hands from their range. They usually don't chuckle either...I'm guessing 65 is most likely hand.

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Grunch

Lol fold pre.

AP call I if you think you can be good 1 out of three times/he's capable of bluffing a busted draw. He probably whiffed because most players at this level don't value bet thinly enough so rarely is this Jx unless he ran into 2p on the end.

Aren't you the guy living in their car and was short-stacking this game not too long ago? Pretty rich IMO to be puffing up here and trying to call out people on whether they're a pro or not.

Grunch

Villain should be checking back a lot, it comes down to if he valuebets AJ here like he should or not, if he does we should jam, if he doesn't then we should call. Very gameflow/villain dependent especially shorthanded.

Im gonna act like im also James Bond from casino royale and put him on a single hand.

A typical non crazy non nit would 3! with almost any Axs, so we can remove all of that. So what is left is SCs and S1Gs. He would raise with a combo draw which removes 5d6d on the flop, as well as KdQd which if it didnt 3! pre wouldve raised flop with over+FD. He would raise 8d9d or 8dTd, or 9dTd on the turn. He obviously didnt have a pair+FD on flop or you wouldve correctly indicated the cards which were diamond in HH.

So going into river he could have Jx, 7d5d, 7d9d, 8d6d, or 7d8d. J8 wouldve folded pre cuz he only plays 1 gappers. AJo is also possible, bit when he said no to Td9d, this is a stone cold tell that he does in fact have two diamonds in his hand, jus not those two. The remainder of his diamond draws hit one pair which he wont bluff. Therefore he has exactly 7d8d.

Im instamucking 74 here and snap shipping J2 because this read is so obvious and im such a pro.

Not sure if serious. Pretty sure not given the rest of the post, but if so...

OP, if you can convince me that your standard play is to make <50% PSB on the flop with TP with a FD on the board, then I might not lock this up.

I feel like when we get so comfortable with the game that we call our chips "checks" (or even better "cheques") then, and only then, do we pass the litmus test for prodom!

EDIT: Bonus points if we are from Cali!

I have a feeling that OP is going to receive a lesson in humility very soon.

Lol

Reasons to fold:

Villain had 78dd and rivered two pair.

Talking and being relaxed is usually indicative of strength.

People just don't bluff enough in LLSNL in my experience

We have better bluff catchers. On this texture I'm very often going bet bet check river with a jack.



Reasons to call:

We block the straight.

Villains will usually raise their strong value on a suited board before the river.

Villain has way more medium strength whiffed hands than he does strong value.

Pass. Yeah thats the very reliable tell that is jumping out of the hand history if you bothered to read it. Good job guys.

In the moment I heard him laugh first and interpreted that as being weak and called. He showed 65os.

I dont have a standard open. I might 2x-12x at any time usually sizing more towards the middle.

the tell is he removed a strong hand from his range therefore he is very strong.

checking turn seems like letting him get there for free. I'm playing aggressively and these guys are afraid to play back at me. If I weren't playing so aggressively this play might not make sense.

Problem with bombing river is I don't put him on a better hand. I feel like for him to call 2 streets so easily he has to have some kind of draw. So bombing river doesn't make sense to me here. Also I don't think this is the type of player to try to bluff off of hand here, he's got it in him to call imo.

fold pre? 5handed with only one other guy capable of playing back?

im not trying to call anyone out. but if you dont read that hand history and see that villain removed a strong hand from his range and therefore he must be very strong himself than you probably aren't a pro. either way we can all get better. and yeah i'm still sleeping in my car so dont worry i aint puffing up just trying to open some eyes to a very strong tell. namaste.

you missed the tell where villain removes strong hand from his range therefore he has a very strong hand.

obv troll post didn't bother reading past first sentence i hope he wasted a lot of time writing that.

Heads-up why would I just assume someone would have a flush draw? I vary my play I think I might bet more with TP like 75% pot but if i had middle set or AA i would def bet closer to 40% pot or something. my sizings might be super obvious to someone paying attention but i try to vary them and mix them up at the right times to confuse my opponents(and myself lol).

i would say my standard c-bet is 1/3 to 1/2 pot ranging out to full pot sized bets on occasion sometimes as pure bluffs and other times as value. depends on board texture.

also capable of over betting flops especially when an all-in is 1.1-3x pot.

Hahahaha. Thanks yes I'm playing in Los Angeles California and calling my chips checks.

You win.

Every day when I wake up from sleeping in my car.

not bad reasoning but you're missing the very reliable tell of him removing a strong hand from his range.

very funny.

thanks =D. efff that game thats not even poker.

not a troll wanted to see if you could spot the tell. ill assume you would have buddy.

no i'm not a pro, god help me if i were, i'd shoot myself.

good job misapplying verbal tells tho, obv you're not a pro either.