Quote:
Originally Posted by weltis
Are you essentially saying when villain's betting range wider than calling range, we should look to check call or check jam in order to induce bluffs? In this particular example, is the wider betting range a function more based on the exact board (T98) or villains spewy nature? Both? Would you check jam this board readless still?
Something like that, although that’s not an absolute or exactly what’s happening.
Basically if you bet here and he folds, he’s folding out all his garbage and hands that have low equity or even zero equity vs your hand. He continues with good hands, which in total should be at least 50% equity vs your range and i wouldnt be surprised if his continuing range otf vs your cbet is higher than 50%. I could check pokerstove but im on my phone atm.
Let’s say you check. He still has all the trash cards in his range, and he will bet them at a decently high freq (even if he is loose passive let’s give him like 15-35% bet frequency with air like AQ, SCs, Ax, KJs, KQs, or even hands like 44-88). Most of that range would fold vs your cbet but now he is making a mistake by assuming you have nothing here when you check (which is very commonly true vs most players, they have AK or AQ that is checking to give up).
Okay now his “good” range i described earlier like sets two pairs straights Re going to bet anyway if we check. So we lose the same amount vs his value hands, but now we also made money off his bluffs. We kept ranges wider.
We also make money off bluff catchers more if we check. Let’s say he has 44-88. They are hardly calling 2 barrels, let alone 3. If we check and he checks back and we get two blanks ott/otr, we are almost always getting paid. How do i know? It happened to me all the time back then, and people esp live hate folding vs lines that make no sense and they “put you on AK”. Ive seen people even snap call 22/bottom pair in these scenarios otr.
This also creates a metagame where you’re tougher to play against since when you check it doesnt mean you are weak, people are less inclined to bluff you and you can realize more free equity in future hands out of fear of you “trapping.” Overall, your opponent will always make more mistakes vs you if you are checking some overpairs here. Just think about it. Everyone should be betting their overpairs here as a “standard” right? Even dumb fish should realize this at some decent frequency, and definitely decent/BE regs knkw this and make less mistakes vs you than say if you check
Wrt vs unknown i just x/c otf and going with the hand on most turns if they bet again, donk jamming river on a blank if they check. Vs this splashy player i am snap x/jamming. Also, just because you check doesnt mean our opponent is going to default bet flop jam turn at 100% freq and put us in an insanely tough spot 100% of the time. I imagine it’s more like 20-30%. Therr are other decision branches that can be made that can gain us a lot of EV
Yea, higher betting frequency is due to the nature of the board as well as him being splashy. Just imagine a A73ss board and a 1098ss board 3-way pot, BB checks you check CO action on BTN. Which board is BTN more likely to bluff with air and/or bet thinner?
Last edited by Minatorr; 07-22-2018 at 06:15 AM.