Villain is a 30 yo WG wearing a gold Rolex. He sat down 1 orbit ago and bought in for close to the max stack (2.5k). He seems to know a few other players at the table, so I assume he's a reg. I don't have any reads on his competence level or playing style.

Hero is taking a shot in this game (he normally plays lower stakes). Bought in for the minimum 500 and worked it up to 1300, mainly through 2 big hands against the table whale. Recently topped off for an additional 500.

OTTH ($1700 effective):
Villain opens UTG (8-handed) to 25, 3 calls, Hero completes in the SB with 22, BB folds.

Flop: AK2ss (pot = 130).
Hero checks, and it checks around

Turn: 4c (doesn't bring in the backdoor flush draw)
Hero leads for 60, Villain raises to 260.

Thoughts: I probably should have sized up on this bet. I wasn't really thinking about the pot size, and just threw out what would have been a large bet for a 5-way pot in the smaller game I am accustomed to playing in.

Hero calls 260. Pot = 650. Effective stacks 1400.

Thoughts: Not sure if I should have much of a 4-betting range here, so I elect to call. Also, and this is probably MUBSY thinking, it crossed my mind that Villain might be slowplaying AA, as I wasn't sure what hands would check flop and then 3-bet turn. Maybe like AQ which interpreted my turn sizing as weak?

River: 5d

Hero?

What's the optimal line on the river? Do we check/call, check/raise, or bet/fold. Bet/call is clearly bad, and I feel like check/raise is not great either. So IMO it's between check/call and bet/fold.

If anyone has comments on earlier streets, that would be appreciated too.

Lead flop to get value from Ax hands (it's multi-way so it's unlikely to check around)

AP, size up turn ($90-100 is fine)

Not sure what to do on the river given how we got here. x/jam feels like we might be overplaying our hand. Against an unknown I'd probably just check/call.

Yeah this is a very interesting spot. Because he opened UTG AA KK are a larger portion of his range than they would usually be. I'm still probably going for a c/r on the flop as well. When he checks back the flop and raises the turn alarm bells are going off in my head. It seems like he's very polarized here to AA,KK maybe AK although I think AK should bet flop; and spades or gutshot hands as his bluffs. Actually now that I think about it A4s also makes sense if he would raise that pre. I would probably bet 80-90 on the turn but your sizing is not the end of the world. I agree with calling the turn. It feels MUBSY to be so afraid of AA KK here but his line doesn't really make sense for any other value.

I think I find a check/call on the river, give him a chance to bluff with missed spades or QJ. Also if you are shot taking nothing wrong with taking the low variance route and just getting your set to showdown

slamdunk xc on river jamming is a disaster and folding isn't an option

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I’d probably lolfold ott and feel ok about it. This is a set almost always, either AA/KK or most likely 44, occasionally spazzed occasionally ******edly played AK or spazzed out A4s that didnt fold pre and did not cbet flop. He is literally never bluffing here with spades; this is always value

I would size up ott.

Otr i’d start by checking.

So, results: I did check and Villain checked behind. I showed my hand and he mucked.

In retrospect, I think I should have led the river for like 225 (with the intention of bet/folding). All of Villains hands that beat me will likely bet river if I check (and I will have to call). By leading myself, Villain may call with some hands that I beat which would otherwise check behind (like A4s or a suspicious AQ).

I guess I could see x/c as a more profitable line if I think Villain has a lot of bluffs in his range. But I think most of his bluffs are spades, which are probably c-betting the flop. Basically x/c is only profitable in the event he has a weirdly played QJ.

Leading river is the worst option. Well tied with check/fold prolly.

To think leading river is bad you have to think that V has a lot of hands which would bet river but would also fold to a 1/3 pot sized bet. Right? I guess I can't see V folding a hand like A4 to a 1/3rd pot bet, and I'm not sure if he would value bet that hand himself -- I don't see many players going for thin value like that on this river.

I guess leading river is probably bad (or maybe neutral EV) just because V has close to an equal number of combos of sets and 2pairs?

Before I saw results, I was about to say that both x/c and b/f are good options, but I'm leaning towards bet/folding about $350, since he will often check back his A4s/A5s/AKo when we check to him.

I guess the question I was considering is whether we could choose a bet size which would get villain to call with some of his AQ combos. I was thinking he might look me up some of the time for a 1/3 pot bet -- my initial read on this guy was that he's possibly a fishy rec player, mainly due to his somewhat tacky attire (I wasn't super confident in this read, so I decided against including it in the OP).

I'm amazed that people want to bet/fold the river without assigning some probability to the cases where this unknown villain is playing AK like the nuts on this non-drawy board.

I'm fine on the river with any plan that does not involve folding, especially since Hero has seriously underrepped his hand.

B/c turn then leading river is just a terrible and obvious line. It's never a bluff and never a good line for value as it's typically pretty strong. It targets way too narrow of a villains range that most like is betting anyway. Either should be raising turn or c/c or c/r river.

Betting river is pretty bad, xc normally correct. Whether villain can have open 35xx or raise 3x (like a3) on the then is also relevant.