5/5 - flopped 2P, raised OTT. Best play? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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5/5 - flopped 2P, raised OTT. Best play?

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06-25-2016 , 05:58 PM

DTLB

adept

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 904

$400 ES

MP limps, hero checks J

in SB, BB checks.

Flop ($10): J

Hero bets $10, MP calls

Turn ($30): K

Hero bets $20, MP raises $60

MP is a MAWG who is LAP pre but tricky post (at least to me). Haven't played with him that much but when I do I have a lot of trouble ranging him so I'm never sure where I'm at. Earlier he raised a cbet IP on something like KJ6ss, checked back turn and folded to a river lead. I think he said he raised a draw OTF.

Best play here?

If we call, what's our plan if river is a brick and he bets out again?

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06-25-2016 , 06:40 PM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Call and calling most river bets. You block 66. He should raise pre with JJ/TT. He could have a better two pair or the Q9. He should have QJ/QT in his range, maybe 98s. He also may have binked a K with K9s or even KQ. I estimate you beat about 26 combos and lose to about 25 combos. Good enough to call and evaluate the river.

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06-25-2016 , 09:01 PM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Problem here is sizing imo

pot is 15
10 is ok for lead
35 ott
Bet 30 not 20, you'll get a far more accurate read if you size ~75%. If V still raises at this point you can prob exclude most Kx and bet/fold given the T is not a clean out.
As played you're now really guessing and facing a river barrel also. Easy to burn half your stack in this spot and I don't think it's necessary.

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06-25-2016 , 09:38 PM

IMA

banned

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 584

c/f turn

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06-25-2016 , 09:53 PM

Sommerset

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 3,863

Does LAP mean loose Passive? If so, i check this turn. KJ K10 and KQ are all in play here. This card hits every hand in his limp range and basically misses everything you check with in the blind. Since you say he's tricky post he could recognize this, but I sort of doubt a lose passive is tricky with a brain, more likely he just does weird random crap. I think this is a gross fold we basically hate all rivers here that don't fill us up and we are out of position here so he can fire with impunity and force us to make a real tough river decision.

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06-26-2016 , 02:13 AM

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,240

This is pretty much the nut worst card for your hand. You can fold.

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