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Old 08-10-2013, 10:50 PM   #1
boyrico
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5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Hero: $3k
Has been running hot. Young loose and aggressive, but has been tightening up in an effort to not spew. Even limped in some pots. Has been caught 3 barreling once or twice

V: $1100
First time playing with him, no solid reads. Seems to be loose-passive pre, aggressive post (think he played one draw fast but not sure as it didn't go to showdown). Again, these are not solid reads.

Fish:$300
Idiot, really screwed up this hand.

Fish limps EP.
Hero makes it $25 from MP with Ad9c
V calls from SB.
Fish calls.

Flop $75 Ac Kd 9d
V checks cards again before checking
Fish leads $40
Hero raises to $100
V calls
Fish folds

Turn $315 2s
V checks
Hero bets $180
V raises $460 more ($640 total) with $300 behind

All of our options suck
I thought if he had a nuttish hand (AK+) he would raise the flop on this draw heavy board (most of the time)
I feel like sets can be somewhat discounted because AA, KK he prob 3! pre, and two of the 9's are accounted for

We have the Ad so we know he's not spazzing with something like AdQd
Hero?
Apologize if you think this is a stupid post, this hand was bothering me
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Old 08-10-2013, 11:56 PM   #2
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

I think the turn is a fold. It's tough because like you said you'd expect him to 3b AA/KK pre here and there are only two 9's left in the deck. It's possible he got cute with aces or kings or that he's just fortunate enough to have 99.

I think if he doesn't have a set here he could show up with QdJd or QdTd or maybe very rarely K9.

This is a perfect example of why you need a plan when you bet the turn. If you knew you weren't willing to bet call here then you might not have bet in the first place.
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:04 AM   #3
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Ok let's break this down.

Live unknowns rarely have a draw/pure bluff in this spot given how much strength you've shown in this hand. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation imo.

Live unknowns rarely have a one pair hand like AQ in this spot also, given how much strength you've already shown. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation also.

Live unknowns are unlikely to show this much strength with K9s/K9o in this spot (and he may fold K9o preflop). This hand should be discounted significantly.

I would discount AA/KK 100% due to preflop action (no raise), and include all A9s/A9o in villain's range, and I would exclude all A2 hands assuming villain would fold to the flop raise.

I discounted AKo/AKs by 50% due to no preflop raise.

So here's where we are at:

Quote:
Board: Ac Kd 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 20.91% 20.00% 92 88.00 { Ad9c }
Hand 1: 59.091% 39.09% 20.00% 172 88.00 { 9h9s, AsKs, Ah9h, As9s, Ks9s, AhKs, AsKc, Ah9s, As9h, Kc9h }
If we just shove the turn and villain calls with 100% of his turn check/raising range, we are risking $760 to win $1435. We need 34.64% equity to make that play profitable. Based on the numbers above, it appears that's what you should do.

Now let's do some more worser case scenario analysis. Out of the AA/KK group there are 3 combos of KK and 1 combo of AA. Let's throw in just the one combo of AA (people like to be sneaky sometimes), and let's discount K9o/K9s by 100% (I only put in 2 combos of K9 originally). Everything else is kept the same:

Quote:
Board: Ac Kd 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.242% 02.02% 22.22% 8 88.00 { Ad9c }
Hand 1: 75.758% 53.54% 22.22% 212 88.00 { AhAs, 9h9s, AsKs, Ah9h, As9s, AhKs, AsKc, Ah9s, As9h }

In this scenario, we should fold.

Bottom line, this is an extremely marginal spot you're in. Some shortcuts to use in the heat of battle that'll get you to the right decision the vast majority of time: If you don't think villain 3bets AK preflop oop then fold the turn. If you think villain always 3bets AK preflop, then shove turn. If you think villain is crazy enough to check/raise the turn with AQ, then shove the turn. More rarely, if you're knowledge on villain is precise enough that you believe villain will play K9o in this spot preflop and overplay K9 on this board, then shove turn.

That's a lot to take in. In the actual hand I would probably tank fold. I see too many live players that DON'T 3bet AK, especially oop preflop, and I see a lot of villains play mubsy with A9 postflop given that you raised the flop. And I see one pair/draw/air so rarely in this specific spot that it's barely worth mentioning.
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:30 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by ggbsbc View Post
I think if he doesn't have a set here he could show up with QdJd or QdTd or maybe very rarely K9.

This is a perfect example of why you need a plan when you bet the turn. If you knew you weren't willing to bet call here then you might not have bet in the first place.
I had a weird feeling, i thought about checking.. i knew if he raised me on the turn i would tank

To be honest, im not sure if i had a plan after betting the turn but how the hell can I check A9 on this board

Maybe his raise size threw me off too, you don't see many live players make this size of a raise
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:35 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929 View Post
Ok let's break this down.

Live unknowns rarely have a draw/pure bluff in this spot given how much strength you've shown in this hand. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation imo.

Live unknowns rarely have a one pair hand like AQ in this spot also, given how much strength you've already shown. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation also.

Live unknowns are unlikely to show this much strength with K9s/K9o in this spot (and he may fold K9o preflop). This hand should be discounted significantly.

I would discount AA/KK 100% due to preflop action (no raise), and include all A9s/A9o in villain's range, and I would exclude all A2 hands assuming villain would fold to the flop raise.

I discounted AKo/AKs by 50% due to no preflop raise.
I agree with your assessment.
I didn't give any consideration to air, one pair hands, or sets.
To me, it was either AK, combo draw, or mayyyybe K9 (but highly doubtful).

I discounted AK a bit because of the flat pre... But maybe this was wrong because I see way too many live players flat with AK.. Even if the original raiser is LAG
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:41 AM   #6
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
I agree with your assessment.
I didn't give any consideration to air, one pair hands, or sets.
To me, it was either AK, combo draw, or mayyyybe K9 (but highly doubtful).
To nit just a bit, we still gotta include the one combo of 99 left (which I did above but forgot to mention it).

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
I discounted AK a bit because of the flat pre... But maybe this was wrong because I see way too many live players flat with AK.. Even if the original raiser is LAG
Yeah I figured discounting AKo/AKs by 50% is a decent guess, but yeah I'm just shooting from the hip there. Given that you said this guy is loose/passive preflop and he is OOP, he may have more AKo/AKs in his range then we think.
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:49 AM   #7
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929 View Post
Ok let's break this down.

Live unknowns rarely have a draw/pure bluff in this spot given how much strength you've shown in this hand. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation imo.

Live unknowns rarely have a one pair hand like AQ in this spot also, given how much strength you've already shown. Discounting this hand by 100% is a good approximation also.

Live unknowns are unlikely to show this much strength with K9s/K9o in this spot (and he may fold K9o preflop). This hand should be discounted significantly.

I would discount AA/KK 100% due to preflop action (no raise), and include all A9s/A9o in villain's range, and I would exclude all A2 hands assuming villain would fold to the flop raise.

I discounted AKo/AKs by 50% due to no preflop raise.

So here's where we are at:



If we just shove the turn and villain calls with 100% of his turn check/raising range, we are risking $760 to win $1435. We need 34.64% equity to make that play profitable. Based on the numbers above, it appears that's what you should do.

Now let's do some more worser case scenario analysis. Out of the AA/KK group there are 3 combos of KK and 1 combo of AA. Let's throw in just the one combo of AA (people like to be sneaky sometimes), and let's discount K9o/K9s by 100% (I only put in 2 combos of K9 originally). Everything else is kept the same:



In this scenario, we should fold.

Bottom line, this is an extremely marginal spot you're in. Some shortcuts to use in the heat of battle that'll get you to the right decision the vast majority of time: If you don't think villain 3bets AK preflop oop then fold the turn. If you think villain always 3bets AK preflop, then shove turn. If you think villain is crazy enough to check/raise the turn with AQ, then shove the turn. More rarely, if you're knowledge on villain is precise enough that you believe villain will play K9o in this spot preflop and overplay K9 on this board, then shove turn.

That's a lot to take in. In the actual hand I would probably tank fold. I see too many live players that DON'T 3bet AK, especially oop preflop, and I see a lot of villains play mubsy with A9 postflop given that you raised the flop. And I see one pair/draw/air so rarely in this specific spot that it's barely worth mentioning.
Excellent post
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:59 AM   #8
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^agreed, thanks
Too bad we can't stove while at the table
I mean I guess we could but we'd get the clock called on us
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Old 08-11-2013, 01:36 AM   #9
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929 View Post
Ok let's break this down.



I would discount AA/KK 100% due to preflop action (no raise), and include all A9s/A9o in villain's range, and I would exclude all A2 hands assuming villain would fold to the flop raise.
Have you ever played live poker? Not 3 betting AA/KK is a habit of many players. While unlikely this is totally in a live villains range. Id say up to 20% of players do not 3bet it in order to trap with AA/KK.
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Old 08-11-2013, 01:59 AM   #10
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Stupid post. Must call .. This comes with Playing a9... Can't fold with stack. Sizes call faster
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Old 08-11-2013, 01:59 AM   #11
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I only said stupid post cause you did
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Old 08-11-2013, 02:00 AM   #12
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

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Originally Posted by Mandor_TFL View Post
Have you ever played live poker? Not 3 betting AA/KK is a habit of many players. While unlikely this is totally in a live villains range. Id say up to 20% of players do not 3bet it in order to trap with AA/KK.
That's all I play is live poker. (I've never played nl online before). I don't really disagree with anything you've said here. There are 4 possible combos of AA/KK (1 combo of AA and 3 of KK). In the 2nd scenario I included one combo (AA) in villain's range to try to account for some trappiness. I do suspect that the 2nd scenario of villain's possible range comports more with reality than the first scenario which is largely why I ended up advocating a fold on the turn.
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Old 08-11-2013, 09:11 AM   #13
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Super close spot, imo as has been broken down a bit. I would not exclude A2 totally or combo draws. Think I end up getting it in because he is loose pre so has K9 and a2 enough.
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Old 08-11-2013, 10:29 AM   #14
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

I think this is a shove.

I think we have to give Villain some credit for a hand here.

Reads for strength:
1) Villain is unknown with more then 200bb.
2) Villain calls an open-raise from the SB
3) Hero has the A, so Villain cannot have a pair+FD.
4) 2 turn is a complete blank, yet villain is now showing strength

Reads for weakness/draw:
1) Villain double-checks cards after the flop hits.
2) Villain does not raise flop.
3) Villain didn't shove turn.


I'm trying to see this hand from Villain's eyes, and given Hero's line, he can't really expect Hero to fold much here. The flop smacks the hell out of Hero's range, and Hero put in a raise vs. the donkey-bet from the Fish.

I'd normally add this up to a fold here, but since we're only beat by AK exactly (I'm not completely eliminating sets, but they're just quite unlikely here), and there are plenty of other strong hands that are out there (as has been shown earlier in the thread), and since Villain seemed to leave himself some chips behind, I think we can shove and get some fold equity against hands that have lots of outs against us.

I do admit though, this looks like AK here...
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Old 08-11-2013, 10:58 AM   #15
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
2) Villain does not raise flop.
3) Villain didn't shove turn.
Both of these things indicate strength to me.... 2 is pretty typical of not so good players who flop a monster... beluga whale theorem and all. 3 seems like a pretty reasonable strategy to get in stacks without shoving.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929 View Post
That's all I play is live poker. (I've never played nl online before). I don't really disagree with anything you've said here. There are 4 possible combos of AA/KK (1 combo of AA and 3 of KK). In the 2nd scenario I included one combo (AA) in villain's range to try to account for some trappiness. I do suspect that the 2nd scenario of villain's possible range comports more with reality than the first scenario which is largely why I ended up advocating a fold on the turn.
IMO, you discounted AK more than you should have, but included no FD only combos. As has been mentioned, V must have just the bare FD (and not the NFD at that), which decreases the liklihood... but QdTd and JdTd both make sense. Yes, this is an absurd spaz if he has the FD... but people do it sometimes when they miss their draws.
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:12 PM   #16
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

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Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
IMO, you discounted AK more than you should have, but included no FD only combos. As has been mentioned, V must have just the bare FD (and not the NFD at that), which decreases the liklihood... but QdTd and JdTd both make sense. Yes, this is an absurd spaz if he has the FD... but people do it sometimes when they miss their draws.
You could easily be right, and if you are then turn becomes a trivial fold. Even if we include 1 or 2 combos of big draws, discounting AK less will really crush our equity.
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Old 08-11-2013, 02:22 PM   #17
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
I do suspect that the 2nd scenario of villain's possible range comports more with reality than the first scenario
The second range you came up with looks about right imo, might even be more AK in there. LLSNL villains flat with AK a lot, in my experience.

Think this is closer to a fold than a shove.
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Old 08-11-2013, 03:08 PM   #18
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

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Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
First time playing with him, no solid reads. Seems to be loose-passive pre, aggressive post (think he played one draw fast but not sure as it didn't go to showdown). Again, these are not solid reads.
So in essence, another lag. I don't know why we're only figuring him for the top tier of hands. COmbo draws, pair and a draw need to be included, if read is correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
Fish:$300
Idiot, really screwed up this hand.
Fish only make the game better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
Hero makes it $25 from MP with Ad9c
If you're going to play A9o, this can't be a dilemma. It's a shove. If you don't like it, stop playing A9o.
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Old 08-11-2013, 03:37 PM   #19
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Discounting AA or KK here is pretty bad....I mean do you not think he knows the fish limped in....Would you 3 bet AA or KK pre flop with a fish behind....

Not raising sets or 2 pair on this board on the flop...closer...but once again he has a fish to his left...he does not want to fold out....so slow playing sets and two pair should go up. (though somewhat discouneted is still valid)....

Him not having A9 or K9 because he folds these...well once again...there is a fish in the hand...one would assume he plays more of these hands...

I don't know about you guys...but when a fish is in a hands (usually deep stacked i will admit) regs become superfish preflop...and raised pots change from 2 or 3 way to 5 or 6....

Not saying thats the case here but..everything this guy did that you all want to supper discount...has kind of gone out the window at least in part do to the fish....(and yeah he should donk out most of the good hands since the fish means your likely to check back a lot, but thats a little more advance then wanting to slow play and not 3 bet big hands with a fish in the pot...)

Now the second part comes to weather you can read him as a lag or not...And honestly you have not given enough info here....maybe he semi bluffs is the only read I have...

If he were a lag post flop, it useually a pretty quick read....the I'm not sure kind of suggest a normal passivise player hitting a few hands...

Here you showed a lot of strength...and got raised by a player who up to here could and probably should have slow played...and now shows huge low stakes strength by raising the turn (had he done that ever before???).

I know that some of my arguments he could call a9 or k9 preflop argue for a call...overall my guess is this is a fold though close.

As far as planning better...betting planning to fold is fine unless you really bleive this guy is supper aggressive....I mean the bet fold (though exploitable) is still the main play when you flop well, and requires a strong read and good reason to change...I almost always have that read before i even see the flop.

Last edited by Little_blue; 08-11-2013 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:07 PM   #20
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Discounting AA or KK here is pretty bad....I mean do you not think he knows the fish limped in....Would you 3 bet AA or KK pre flop with a fish behind....
From the SB?
Every single time.
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:15 PM   #21
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So in essence, another lag. I don't know why we're only figuring him for the top tier of hands. COmbo draws, pair and a draw need to be included, if read is correct.

Fish only make the game better.

If you're going to play A9o, this can't be a dilemma. It's a shove. If you don't like it, stop playing A9o.
I don't see him as another LAG (or at least a good LAG) as i figured him to be loose-passive pre

I love fish, but I feel like his donkey bet changed the dynamics of the hand

And no, I will not stop playing A9o when a fish has open limped. This is a dilemma, people are saying its marginal but closer to a fold. Just because I flop top and bottom doesn't mean I have to stick in 200bb
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:18 PM   #22
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Btw, to anyone wonderinf, I'm sure V would call pre with A2s, K9s, and maybe K9o.
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:24 PM   #23
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

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Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
Btw, to anyone wonderinf, I'm sure V would call pre with A2s, K9s, and maybe K9o.
Still need a parlay to occur for villain to have A2s tho. He needs to make a bad call on the flop and then overvalue his hand on the turn.
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:30 PM   #24
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
If you're going to play A9o, this can't be a dilemma. It's a shove. If you don't like it, stop playing A9o.
This is terrible advice in general, even more so for LLSNL (unless it's an abs trivial short stack decision), you should adjust your decisions to incorporate new information as it becomes available throughout the hand, not blindly stack off post flop because you took a certain line pre flop.

Also hero pre flop play with A9o seems fine here.
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Old 08-11-2013, 04:58 PM   #25
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Re: 5/5 flop two pair facing turn check raise 220BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico View Post
I don't see him as another LAG (or at least a good LAG) as i figured him to be loose-passive pre

I love fish, but I feel like his donkey bet changed the dynamics of the hand

And no, I will not stop playing A9o when a fish has open limped. This is a dilemma, people are saying its marginal but closer to a fold. Just because I flop top and bottom doesn't mean I have to stick in 200bb
I didn't describe him as loose and aggressive, you did lol. If you wanted to not describe him as a lag, than use words other than loose/aggressive.

So you're not going to stop playing A9o, but when you flop 2 pair you don't know what to do? Having a plan pf, whether I agree with it or not, gets respected if you follow through with it. But you describe him as a lag, and say A9o is a raise here always, then later in the hand, V all of a sudden is a tight old man and apparently you didn't play A9o to hit 2 pair...
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