Nut FD.... Is my thinking flawed?
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,051
I had this hand tonight and it made me think. Probably because I lost but maybe it will save me money long term.
1/2 NLHE I have $250 and Villian on button has $600
AsKs in SB.
Button has been crazy betting up to 50 preflop open.
3 Limpers including button.
I raise to 16.
All fold except Villian on button.
Pot is $36.
Flop is Js 8d 3s
Obviously, I am happy with my equity here.
I bet $25 and Villian jams.
I snap call. After thinking it through, I had a flip against anything but 2 pair/Set but without fold equity, does this make sense?
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,726
This is fine, especially with button described as crazy. Even against more normal players a call should be fine as this line is often a (dominated) draw.
Maybe raise a bit more pre depending on table dynamics.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 4,333
Totally fine. Folding would be a large mistake because
a) there is money in the pot so with 50% equity folding is bad.
b) you have more than 50% equity v moron who can have worse draws.
If you are not sure about these spots doing ranges on pokerstove and the equity maths is essential if you are serious about improving. Sadly this is boring as **** but having people tell you the answer obviously has about 1% of the value of being able to find the answer yourself. If you have any doubts about how to do it, ask.
These spots are frustrating when you lose 34hh or whatever but that is the game.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,181
He has a set of 3s and j8s sometimes but he probs does this with worse FDs. I'd assume JJ + 88 is in his crazy preflop opening range. Unless you have a specific read that he wouldn't overjam without a nutted hand wp.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 439
What did he have... Obviously can't fold there, sucks
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 163
I don't think that there is anything wrong with the way you played the hand. Getting it in on this flop against this villain's likely wide range (crazy pr antics) is just fine.
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 67
Quick pokerstove against a reasonable estimation of his shoving range here:
49,500 games 0.000 secs 9,900,000 games/sec
Board: Js 8d 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.349% 49.35% 00.00% 24428 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 50.651% 50.65% 00.00% 25072 0.00 { JJ, 88, 33, AJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, J8s, T9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 8s6s, AJo, J8o, T9o }
So yeah, you're essentially 50-50. With the dead money in the pot already calling is correct. I don't think I forgot anything from this range, but if you think he's shoving wider than this it makes calling even more profitable.
Using my range:
.4935($295) - .5065($209) = ~$39.72
So every time you make this exact call you will make $39.72 on average.
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,585
1.29:1 odds, we only need to win 43% of the time, at worst spades and pairing one of your whole cards is good, that's 12 outs, which is about flipping, which is above our odds on our $, so there's a call.
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,051
Appreciate the thoughts. I didn't stove it because I pretty much know the odds for his entire range already. I have been playing these hand aggressively forever because of the huge fold equity tipping the scale. However, in this situation, there was no chance of him folding. So, it seems that the dead money tips the scale here and still makes it a winning proposition over time...
Thanks again.