grunch

nice combo for flop lead wp

GII ott AP

not folding for this price otr

Ya, I think multi-way here in a limped pot having 2:1 bluffs is far too bluff heavy still honestly. That last thought is a great point too.

Good point about the small blind completing wide -- I totally missed that... I thought this was 2/5. So both SB and BB have roughly 75-80% of hands here.

If you run this hand in PIO as SB vs BB you see a 3:1 bluff:value ratio on the flop. So more bluffs than the toy model allows. One reason we are allowed to bluff more frequently than in the toy model is that our bluffs can often improve to a pair that wins at showdown. So our range isn't actually polarized. Our nut hands have close to 100% equity, but our bluffs have much more than 0% equity. The simplified toy model is inaccurate, but in the other direction: we get to bluff *more* frequently in reality.

Here's the PIO output to back this up:
OOP (bets 80 combos, checks 860 combos): https://imgur.com/a/XBdmcMT
IP (bets 450 combos, checks 450 combos): https://imgur.com/a/hDKxK4n

I don't know how multiway affects the analysis. Given that COs range interacts very poorly with this board, I'd guess not by much.

Another point is that in optimal play SB is checking a lot of his 6x here, to balance his range. In reality, live players won't do this. So in live play, SB is actually a lot weaker here after he checks. That means we can probably bet more frequently than indicated as above.

Awesome discussion! Really good content.

I started leading more on dry flops when im in the blinds lately because i noticed that people dont fight enough for the small pots and fold a lot. It is even working a lot better then expected.

We call, V1 also calls. V2 in sb has 77, V1 shows a 6 and mucks. Didnt think V2 could have 77 there. Thought he would raise pre for sure.

I just don't see how we're good Ott. I get the whole price we're getting and everything, but regularly making big folds will save a lot of money live.

Villain can have 43 so we can never fold.

Sure, there are three combos of 43s, but with raise-call I see us almost never, if never being good. FWIW, I'd call HU.

I think both players can have 6x combos with this action, especially SB who can have all 6x. Doesn't seem like the type to fold 62o to this turn action.

Assuming he has 62o in his range, yeah. I know no live player is folding a 6, but I guess if they're calling all of those 6s.

Remember, it’s 5/5 man. SB is far closer to uncapped than in a 2/5 game.

Kind of a misconception that’s been floating around here... IMO It’s hard for BIG folds to print money because...

1) in most situations we aren’t that deep

2) part of the reason the price is usually great

3) people spazz

4) people over-value

5) most V’s underbluff but it’s still a consideration

if we need to be good something like 18% in some random spot it’s unlikely we’re printing with a fold.

Idk what I was thinking, thanks for the reminder that SB doesn't have to put any money in pre

so we lead into two players with 8 high and a gutshot, hit our gin card on the turn and we still don't know what to do....hmmm, maybe the lead wasn't so great after all?

I know what to do on the turn — Rip it in and hi five the dealer!

We didn’t lead into two players. SB checked, weakening his range. We bet into one player, the CO, who did not have the lead in preflop aggression and who’s range interacts poorly with this flop.

Lot of results oriented thinking in this thread. Betting out, or even check raising, from the blinds is printing money on this board. If Hero had bet flop and both players folded, which is the most likely outcome, then this thread would never have been made.

we have the 7th nuts in a multiway limped pot where every other nut combo is in play.
we double barrell, get raised and then are called.

high 5 for your life

More results-oriented thinking. The reason the flop bet is printing money has nothing to do with the particular outcome of the hand. The fact is that SB and CO have air more than half the time, so yes, our flop bet is printing money. Just write down the CO limping range and SB 100% range and calculate how often both players whiff the flop. Bet is profitable and it’s not close.

The turn is a separate issue now that everyone’s range is stronger. SPR is close to 1 and there are worse straights and naked 6s, so we’re forced to GII. Yes it’s a high five spot. Just write down the ranges my friend.

An open limper in the CO is not folding for 2 BB with high cards

I mean, if he’s really continuing with 100% of his weak a$$ range then there’s a very easy exploit. Overbet turn and give up on missed rivers.

Or we can play a fundamentally balanced strategy and mix our 6x value bets with well chosen flop/turn bluffs. In that case we’d also bet flop and turn with this combo of 84.

we did not run into the one or two combos to make this lead unprofitable. there are dozens.

Yes we'll win $15 sometimes but unless we're gonna pin our ears back and go bet bet bet, we're gonna lose the flop and turn bets a significant amount of the time too to stubborn pairs and overcards when we don't improve.

and if you are going bet bet bet here, then you're doing it on a load of other hands too and it's gonna make better bluffs less profitable

and here we are losing $250 because you're high fiving the dealer on the turn with the 7th nuts when you're drawing dead...so that flop bet has to pick up the $$ a significant number of times to make this profitable



honestly, spending too much time on pio and following the resultant recommendations about bluff & value ratios is ****ing suicide for beating 2/5 and 5/5 because the assumptions pio makes about what your opponents 'should' do too rarely reflect what they actually do.

but you do you

Dozens??? You defeated your own argument. If dozens of combos make our lead unprofitable we are printing money considering SB's range has like 1000 combos in it and IP probably has several hundred. There need to be hundreds of combos that play back at us to make our lead unprofitable.

Pairs are correct to be stubborn on this board and overcards should float our flop bet sometimes. We aren't trying to get a pair or decent overs to fold with our flop bet. We're trying to get Q7o to fold. If Q7o gets to showdown or bluffs us off then GG well played. I don't expect that to happen but if it does at least we get the EV back when we have value.

I'm not committing to a triple to try to get pairs to fold. Maybe on some runouts but the flop bet should be profitable by itself.

What better bluffs do we have? Straight draws are pretty good bluffs. There are better straight draws but even if we bet them all we'll still be underbluffing. It's kind of hard to overbluff here unless you just bet everything.

It's not a high five spot but it should be +EV based on reads. If they are playing contrary to the reads we have on them and we're always getting stacked here then GG we got outplayed. We shouldn't second guess our reads though. SB is a station who's preflop range was any two and MP overplays hands. But before you say we shouldn't have been bluffing a station, a station doesn't mean he won't fold air which is literally 75% of his range or more, and we still actually have very good equity against continuing ranges on the flop.

Combinatorically boats just don't come up very often compared to 6x whatever hands they've decided they like. They both have 6x more often than either has a boat, IMO, even though they block each other.

We don't have to win the pot on the flop more often to make up for the times we get stacked. That's ignoring all the times we barrel good turns and win, or win stacks on this particular turn.

Feelie, I think you’re forgetting about node lock. You can tailor ranges to maximally exploit opponents. For HU pots at least.

You can use your brain and solvers together. That will always be better, and usually even more efficient, than just your brain.

Most people are just lazy and rationalize said laziness wrt off table work.

it’s pretty insightful to see that a certain line is a 14BB mistake for example. Or how certain cards change the EV for IP and OOP etc. or tons of other things etc.

node locking is the key here.

imo