9 handed 5/5 game

pretty easy table with half clowns, and half good players
1.2k effective

utg vilain 1 (1k): very bad and passive, first time I play with him, seems like your average bad passive fish that limps and folds to pressure. he's winning and looks like he's about to leave soon.

Co Vilain 2 (600): super bad, calls any 2 cards, worst player at the table

SB Vilain 3 (1.2k): thinking reg, laggish, we have a ton of history together, he can get out of line a few times but he knows I know that so there's a bit of metagame going on for sure.

Hero utg+1 (covers) has been winning a bunch of small pots , seems in a good mood, tag

Dealt to hero JdJc

V1 limps, hero makes it 30, v2 calls and v3 calls

flop (125) AhKcTs, V3 checks, V1 checks, Hero bets 85 (I figure this board hits my range and I look pretty strong betting out, plus blockers so wtver), V2 folds, V3 flats, V1 tank flats

Turn (380) AhKcTs 5h, both check to me, I bet 275 (since both called flop, I figure I can fold out Ax and maybe even KT, plus blockers so wtver, planning to shut down river...) V3 flats, V1 folds.

River (930) AhKcTs 5hQh V3 open shoves for 850, Hero ????

When we are beat, we are beat.

Happens, sometimes they suck out.

I just give up on flop and turn, to many villains to bet out and get fancy here.

One argument for calling river is we are only losing to KJ and TJ and even those would be very questionable flop calls OOP by a competent villain so I am not sure if they are in his range.

You bet flop and turn...lighting money on fire

Hard for him to have hearts. Maybe a bluff once in a blue moon. Usually a chop. Probably worth the call

How is the flop hitting your range hard a reason to bet here? That means anything that calls has you crushed lol

Have KJhh in your range

If JJ is the top of your range with that action you might be playing poker entirely backwards.

Four ways in a raised pot doing anything other than c/f'ing flop is really spewy.

River it's kind of hard for him to have a flush as played but I don't see the merit in thinking too hard about a spot we should never be in.

So you are advocating him to call this river bet with sets? Otherwise we probably only have 3 combos of hands that can call. I don't think we should bet the flop and turn with AJ

KT is also a possibility

This hand is not well played imo. However, you said you have lots of history and metagame w villain and we don't know any of that history so it's hard to really comment.

River is an obvious call against this villain. How the hell are you supposed to have a J or hearts on this action?

The flop and the turn are where the problems are. Both bets look fairly spewy.

don't think he bluffs into a relatively uncapped range here and is more using his image to try and get paid off. This is a fold all day in my book.

I'm not too worried about the flop bet as I agree, we need to cbet here some times with little to no equity, but WHEN BOTH COME ALONG I hate the turn bet because we're dealing with two crazy ****s who could have anything in a bloated pot.

Come the river, even me giving V3 a starting range of:
TT-55,33-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s,43s

and assuming he's reverse floating with any Kxhh, even K2hh, he still has more straight combos at the end of this hand than flush combos. I'm calling. I think you're chopping more than 50% of the time.. which in this case:

Let's say 60% chop, 35% crushed, 5% button click bluff by V(BTW **** ton of 2p + set combos compared to straights & flushes), gives us an EV of:

EV = .6*(465) - .35*850 + .05 (1780) = $70.

Anyway, i'm calling strictly on the fact that his flush combos aren't too high compared to chop combos.

Also, I think a big bet on the river like this is generally going for value, so we're going to be seeing a straight most of the time or flush here. Also, Hero looks extraordinarily strong by double barreling on this board.

So I ask you OP:

Does V3 think OP will fold or call strong hands on a board like this wo the nuts? That's the key question for me.

RESULTS!?

I folded he showed me TT

wow......just terrible analysis. instant iggy.

meh...... I would muck it.

The only weird part of his action is the big shove on the river. If he actually made hearts, it seems like he would want to get some value for his hand and bet smaller.

but since you blasted away on the flop and the turn, he is putting you on something like top two, or maybe even a set, and he doesn't see you folding, even though he is betting so big on the river.

but yeah, getting there on the river and then having to fold is really frusterating, but it is the right play.

This. Flop and turn were terrible, but when we bink the river, our holding is so well disguised that this should be a pretty easy call, even if we think we're chopping a lot.

That flop bet is definitely a leak and really spewey 4, but you asked about the river so...

You've repped massive strength and a V you have lots of history with open shoves into you. How have you played these spots before against him? What's his range here? Do you think this guy is really capable of turning KT or KQ 2 pair into a river bluff when he puts you on a made hand?

I feel like I'm missing too much info to make a real good decision on the river here but with the info you provided I'd fold. This feels like at minimum a QJ who was possibly flatting your turn bet with the nuts. But I also think KTh, JTh make a lot of sense for him here. That's the exact line I'd take with KTh and I'm that laggy reg

There's obviously a few Jacks in his range as well you'd be splitting with.

The only possible bluffs I see are him somehow making a soul read and turning KT or AT into a 2 pair river bluff.

Getting just over 2-1 here on my call I'm making a really unhappy fold, but I put em in the muck. I don't think I'm ahead enough...unless you truly think this guy is turning 2 pair or even bottom set into a bluff. That's just not a play that you ever see at this level tho really. And anybody making that play at this level should probably consider it a leak.

But like I said before your flop bet is a bad leak. Plug it.