Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubey
Agree with al of this. This might be a safe board against a standard 5/5 3-bet/call range, but this Villain should be a lot wider than normal. In fact, I expect he calls with pretty much his entire 3-bet range in position, this deep. Especially if he (incorrectly) feels that we are pretty face up with our 4-bet range here. Which calls into question the validity of 4-betting A5s in this spot, but here we are.
Real rough numbers:
On the flop we will get all in with three 2/3rds pot bet. Villain can fold 40% of his range per bet and remain unexploitable. In order to have hands that beat one pair here, villain needs to be three betting and calling this 4bet with 33,44,55, 68s, 45s, or A2s. That means a 3b/4b call range of around 14%, which is roughly 150 combos. Over 3 bets, that winnows down to 184*.6^3 40 combos, with 19 of them beating us.
1. I don't think villains 3betting range has 100% of 33,44,55, 45s, or 68s, and even if it does, 45s/68s may fold to a 4bet
2. Even if it does, math would say either we can triple for stacks here with AA, OR we can triple for stacks here with any two cards and be profitable. Are you tripling any two cards here?