hmmm it looks like he's trying to set up a pot control... this is usually a sign of weakness.

Usually a sign of weakness and he really wants to check. A jack isn't as likely to hit his range as an A or K. I really think you should have c/r the flop and I guess betting the turn sort of corrects that. I think villain cbets almost every time on a low somewhat disconnected flop and a c/r would have gotten a lot of folds.

I'm inclined to bet partly because top pair changed and the tell (maybe). I don't think checking and getting to the river is terrible at this point. Our equity dropped about 20% on the turn. Not a slam dunk decision either way.

Yes, it's often a sign of weakness.

But there's a very good chance we have low equity + the worst current hand.

This hand plays so differently and better if we donk flop.

The turn J would be a slam dunk second barrel, and we'd often follow with a third barrel.

As played... I mean, I don't know. I guess we can lead now.

Like I said, c/c flop is the worst possible line.

This would be a great turn to barrel if we had led the flop, but it's difficult for us to credibly lead now; villain is showing overt signs of weakness, yet it's hard for us to capitalize oop; and we have less hot/cold equity because the turn blanked + less fold equity than if we had led flop.

I think it's a bit of disaster to miss (and we miss very often), get to showdown, and have villain win with Ax, better Kx, or 98, 44 or 76s or w/e.

I don't really have a plan for the hand after we c/c flop.

I think we played this bad on almost every street (or not bad, but sub-optimal). I'm kind of lost in it now, and usually when I'm lost I x/f.

Yeah would have done things different but now I check and hope to get the free card. Don't think a lead here is horrible but what are you repping AdJd? TdQd? KxQx where X is the other suit on the flop?

We knew x/r flop was the best time to start a big bluff line, and we decided to take it easy with this hand (which, as I spent many words describing, I agree with), and an offsuit J doesn't change that. Any A, T or 7 would have changed that, but not a J.

If you have a tell that he's trying to power check, then you can act on that as confidently as you feel about the tell, but that's really up to you. As far as us passive non-observers, I think x/c is best.

You have anywhere from 20 to 30% equity on the turn vrs a reasonable value range. Live players are notoriously bad at sizing bets. You'll often face a half pot db on the turn offering you 25% direct pot odds. So check calling 2 is hardly a mistake.

You can also c/r turn as a bluff if you think he'll bet fold 1 pair

I mean, leading flop + turn + likely river is the superior line.

But this run out and dynamic is definitely interesting and creates a few possibilities.

We need to look at ranges and likely actions.

Villain, especially with the turn live tell of weakness, can have a huge number of flopped + turned draws that might bluff river that we actually beat like QT, Q8, T8, T7, 87, 85, 75, 74, 54, 52, 42, , etc. So many combos.

And by the way, he can also have draws that beat us like KQ, KT, Ax.

And of course he can have better/weak made hands like 9x, 6x, pocket pairs.

Leading the flop + turn would have gotten "value" from many of those on one or two streets, put villain into various RIO spots when we both make hands (V makes a straight + we make a flush; V makes a flush + we make a better flush; V makes an 8 with 87, we make a better 8, etc.), and would very often have gotten folds on the turn + river from better made hands + better high card hands.

So this would have been a spectacular board to consider triple barreling for value / semi-bluff equity / bluff equity depending on run-out and any reads... with this run-out + this read being just about as optimal as it gets.

Now that we c/c the flop + have a live tell, I'm inclined to do the following:

Lead 1/2 pot on the turn.

Villain is signalling he's weak. Our bet is a fairly high equity bet against weaker made hands like 98, 77 or w/e, because we can have so many river outs. And it's often a "value bet" against a HUGE number of straight draws and many flush draws. And it also gets a call from those nut flush draws that beat us as well as straight draws that beat us.

We bet 1/2 pot on the turn, and sometimes we bink. At that point, we'd have to make a good river decision (lead, c/c, c/r, c/r/fold, c/r/call, etc).

If we miss the river, which is the most frequent case, then I'm inclined to c/r small as a bluff. Villain's range for betting the flop and calling 1/2 pot on the turn becomes extremely polarized when it bets most rivers. However, and our live tell is great, it's very hard for villain to have a nutted hand while there are an ENORMOUS number of airy hands like the ones I noted. So his nuts to air ratios is going to be extremely skewed to air after he calls turn and bets rivers.

A small river c/r wins another bet from villain's bluffs (many of which we beat anyway - but we also need to raise as a re-bluff because we don't beat all his bluffs as KQ, KT, Ax are better). The re-bluff sizing needs to be very small because of what it's trying to accomplish - get villain to fold a group of very weak hands that beat us that fold to any c/r size. Villain will check behind with those 9x, 6x and pocket pair hands and win... we would have gotten folds from those if we barreled... but since we didn't, I think we're probably just letting those go to showdown and win because he also has so much air here and he might now call 9x, etc.

It seems like we can generate a lot of EV by taking some creative lines here, and c/c flop, c/c turn seems like one of the the least profitable ones. Any of the lines I suggested will win so much more from so many more hands that are going to beat us when we c/c, c/c. For example, if you c/c flop and turn, are you also planning to c/c rivers? That sounds really bad... yet we're possibly ahead of like 100+ combos of whiffed draws. My lines win the most from the widest ranges.

Not disagreeing. Donking is by far superior if you think you only get raised a negligible percent of the time. If you think you induce spaz raises or thin value raises from overpairs, Donking can get you in some very awkward spots.

Whereas c/c mathematically is not going to be a mistake.

I mean the whole point of calling k8ss pre was to defend equity share. Calling flop and turn is a continuation of that idea. I think given reads a c/r or donk can be higher EV but you expose yourself to making a mistake larger. Again with reads you might be able to do better postflop than just defending your Share of the pot, but there's certainly risk

Based on the chip shuffling toward betting line read hero decides to bet ott.

Flop was 9d6d3x SB Checks, I check, Villain Bets 40, SB Folds, I call.

Turn Jh Immediately Villain motions towards and grabs/shuffles chips close to the betting line before I act

Hero bets 75, villain calls in under 5 seconds

River 5c, hero?

Looks like this PAHWM ran its course for the most part.
I bet 145 on the river and villain tank called with A9o saying he put me on pair fd combos. All in all I'm still not really sure what I would have done differently because I really felt the chips shuffling to betting line was a strong tell at the time. Generally I don't use tells like that when I have just moved to a new table but this time I really felt that despite it being my first couple orbits that the tell legitimate. Thanks for the discussion everyone. Definitely got a lot out of this.

Well, he had the hand you put him on, this runout just sucks for your range. He has more Jacks than you, and it's not totally clear why you would lead out with a Jack anyway.

If anything, this line is good to take with something that beats A9 to prevent him from pot controlling it on the turn.

I woulda liked any A/K/T/8/7/diamond, and even a 5/4/2 woulda given you some bluff outs to a 4-straight on the board and a 6 woulda let you rep turned trips with a x/r. So honestly, an offsuit J ranks in one of the bottom 6 worst turn cards for you to make a move.

Of course, your tell is what guided your decisions from the donk lead on, but just providing some perspective for why you don't need to try and make up for lost ground when you take a passive line on the flop and bad turn cards fall for you. You should x/r this flop a lot of the time, but it's fine not to with this hand, and you should have some tricks up your sleeves on a lot of turns with any of your flatting hands, and there were a ton of things you coulda done on a ton of turn cards, but just not this one.