9 players - Blinds $5/5

Setup
UTG - ($1,750 - 350BB)
HJ - Hero ($1,000 - 200BB) [9♠︎9♥︎]

Preflop (Pot size: 10)
SB posts small blind $5
BB posts big blind $5
UTG calls $5
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 folds
MP folds
Hero bets $25
CO folds
BTN folds
SB folds
BB calls $20
UTG calls $20

Flop (Pot size: 80) [J♠︎7♦︎4♣︎]
BB bets $25
UTG calls $25
Hero calls $25

Turn (Pot size: 155) [9♣︎]
BB checks
UTG bets $150
Hero raises $300
BB folds
UTG calls $150

River (Pot size: 755) [Q♣︎]
UTG is allin $1,400
Hero has $650

The turn raise is clearly bad. I should have made it like 450 with 550 to shove on river. In either case, whether I bet 300 or 450, can I ever fold on river? When villain calls the flop I suppose he can have JTcc, T7cc, 56cc. KJcc, AJcc would have raised pre flop. I guess I beat QT and non clubs 56. The villain did three barrel bluff few hands before on a double paired board.

ez fold otr ap

Basically everything got there, and V knows that his image is bad and shoved anyway. Yes, I think we can fold our turned set.

That said, you are 100% correct that the min-raise OTT was crap.He bet pot, he's not folding to any reasonable raise. Get that value!

Raise or fold the flop.

Agree. It's pretty obvious someone has Jx here. BB most likely. Not sure what we're hoping for calling OTF. I'm just folding OTF.

You self diagnosed this pretty well. Yeah, needed bigger turn raise. After he called your min turn raise you were ahead, but with river card and his shove he has to have you beat.

As you know, the turn raise is pretty bad. I would have gone bigger pre, too, but not by much.

River is a fold, but it sucks that he could be bluffing or have JQ. Hard to put him on clubs after the turn pot, but could be a combo draw or he hit a straight.

I dont like the call otf when 2 players show interest. Raise that weak donkbet otf and try to tell a story or fold.
Minraise ott is not good. I would make it 600. You are giving him an insanely good price even though he allready said by potting turn that he is willing to pay more.
Ap gotta fold now

Are we really going around folding nut sets to backdoor flush draws and gutters now?

I suppose against the average live player it’s a fold.

If you fold 99 here you have no calling range that gets to the river in this manner except T8, T8 and T8.

You'd have to believe he NEVER has 77, 44, QJ or random spazz here ever to fold 99.

Could you explain what that means? What does it imply if I only have those hands in my calling range ? Villains can bluff a wider range ?

I agree with everyone who says to fold the river.

Villain limp called pre-flop and then called BB's donk bet, which makes me think he does not have a premium starting hand, but he has at least a J on the flop since it was very dry. Don't think he's calling with 2nd pair or worse with the pre-flop raiser behind him to act. 77 and 44 also make sense - this is certainly a decent flop to slowplay a set on.

Then he leads into 2 players when BB checks; what would he do this with? If not a set, then definitely a hand that picked up more equity on the turn. J9 makes sense, as does Jx cc. Set is still possible - the 9c does bring in draw possibilities but nothing completes so he certainly could have decided to just call your turn with the intention of leading brick rivers, or maybe going for a check-raise OTR if he thinks you might have raised the turn with a draw and is capable of bluffing the river.

But then he jams a river that brings straight and flush possibilities. I don't think he's doing that with J9, 77, or 44; those he'll now want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. I definitely don't think villain is jamming QT. Again, that's a hand with decent SDV, he's not turning it into a bluff.

His river bet is very polarizing, but what hands could he have here in the lower pole? I can't think of a single bluffing combo that gets to the river through the flop and turn this way. So I would read that bet as a nuttish hand that has your set crushed.

The way I reasoned about a call is that I didn’t think he is jamming straights on the river. It’s more likely a flush. And when he limp called preflop , he doesn’t have like a strong flush. When he calls flop, it’s certainly more a call with like A7cc than AJcc as he would raise with the latter. This puts him on very few flushes or a bluff. I certainly put myself in a tough spot with the turn raise size.

Result : I called and he showed 58cc.

+1

Even in the unlikely even we are ahead I have no idea how we are going to realize our equity here.

Fold flop is best. We really shouldn't ever arrive at the river in this manner except the weak T8s float combos. Once V bets pot OTT as the preflop caller I think we just go ahead and shove. It's a large shove but stacks are otherwise awkward. He's snap calling with any hand that's 79+ so we get max value from his value range and he'll probably gamble with any combo draw.

I dislike a "normal" 3x raise to $450 leaving a $1000 pot with $500 behind and villain free to bluff rivers as he sees fit. Folding rivers getting 3:1 when he bluffs 's is a disaster. Obviously our chosen raise size was the nut low option but I'm not folding nut sets 200 bigs deep versus villains that can 3 barrel bluff minutes before and l/c 58s from UTG preflop.

Given his actual hand I think it's even more a slam dunk call as he seems like the type to just turn all non-SDV hands into bluffs which skews his range to many many bluffs. For all intents and purposes this V is a massive button clicking muppet. Unless he just sat down an orbit ago OP should have had some kind of better read to provide.

That definitely surprised me.

So he called the donk bet on the flop with the pre-flop raiser behind him with just a gutshot.

And then led out into 2 players with a FD and gutshot with 1 card to come <--- not as terrible as the flop play, but why....

I felt I did a pretty solid hand range analysis up there, and turned out completely wrong as I discounted his actual hand completely on the flop. I don't know if my analysis process was wrong or if this is a case of "you simply can't read bad players."

Villain had a FD and s double gutshot on the turn.

Whoops, you're right. Didn't see that.

Still a pretty WTF call on the flop though with just the gutshot. With the PFR behind to act, high chance he gets raised off OTF, and only 4 turns complete his hand immediately with a few others that give him a hand that he can continue to the river with.

65s would've been possible, but there was no way I was giving anyone 85s on the flop.

Seen the results. But was calling way before read them.

Johnny is right. Just can't go folding sets very often. Although it was close with such a small flop sizing guys will show up super wide here.

Calling flop was -EV

I'm OK with shoving turn here.

There's no raise sizing that allows for our river bet to have any fold equity, so might as well maximize it on the turn.