Quote:
Originally Posted by sabloid
The turn raise is clearly bad. I should have made it like 450 with 550 to shove on river. In either case, whether I bet 300 or 450, can I ever fold on river? When villain calls the flop I suppose he can have JTcc, T7cc, 56cc. KJcc, AJcc would have raised pre flop. I guess I beat QT and non clubs 56. The villain did three barrel bluff few hands before on a double paired board.
I agree with everyone who says to fold the river.
Villain limp called pre-flop and then called BB's donk bet, which makes me think he does not have a premium starting hand, but he has at least a J on the flop since it was very dry. Don't think he's calling with 2nd pair or worse with the pre-flop raiser behind him to act. 77 and 44 also make sense - this is certainly a decent flop to slowplay a set on.
Then he leads into 2 players when BB checks; what would he do this with? If not a set, then definitely a hand that picked up more equity on the turn. J9 makes sense, as does Jx cc. Set is still possible - the 9c does bring in draw possibilities but nothing completes so he certainly could have decided to just call your turn with the intention of leading brick rivers, or maybe going for a check-raise OTR if he thinks you might have raised the turn with a draw and is capable of bluffing the river.
But then he jams a river that brings straight and flush possibilities. I don't think he's doing that with J9, 77, or 44; those he'll now want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. I definitely don't think villain is jamming QT. Again, that's a hand with decent SDV, he's not turning it into a bluff.
His river bet is very polarizing, but what hands could he have here in the lower pole? I can't think of a single bluffing combo that gets to the river through the flop and turn this way. So I would read that bet as a nuttish hand that has your set crushed.
Last edited by GuitarDean; 12-15-2018 at 08:12 PM.