5/5, $700 eff

I just sat down and am at a new casino, so no reads on anyone. Villain is 50s Indian guy, appears recreational.

Hero with AK in BB
HJ open limps
Villain in CO makes it 25, BTN calls
Hero raises to 130
Only Villain calls

Flop (290): J74
Hero bets 90
V calls

Turn (470): 2
Checks around

River (470): J
Hero checks
Villain bets 300
Hero?

I think villain's range when he bets river is somewhat polarized to Jx and busted clubs. Given my large 3b sizing pre he should be folding most of his smaller-middling pairs/suited connectors and non-suited broadways. Villain should only have 8-10 combos of Jx here and 7 combos of club draws. Also 6-8 combos of AQ/AK that float flop to my small C-bet size, although those should be somewhat discounted when he checks back the turn.

Given that I have 2.6-1 to call, is this worth hero'ing down with the nut non-pair? Combinatorically I have the correct odds, but villain's rec image makes me weight him more towards value. Also if he's calling pre with unsuited broadways he has a ton more Jx combos OTR as well.

Without a very strong read or tell, this is a trivial muck for me. I'd expect him to show up with Jx here almost all the time.

Are we excluding all QQ and all KK from his range? I guess KK would 4! gii pre most of the time, but QQ can definitely flat and see the flop here, imo.

Also, against some of the combos you've mentioned, you're just chopping the pot.

I lean towards a fold since recs are generally weighted towards value and all we have is A high.

There’s only one combo each of AJs and KJs. Hard to picture the described player x back the turn with Jx or better (and not raising flop with JJ/77). There’s enough combos of busted draws that I think I click call here.

It makes sense for V to check turn with Jx to avoid a turn c/r stack a donk line and control pot size. There are also quite a few draw combos and floats. Since he's unknown we don't know if he can vbet 99, TT, or spazbet with a 4 or 7. When in doubt I just fold these spots, easy to level yourself into a call thinking they have a wide range when they don't.

Seems like a reasonable spot to call down. If he thin vbets 99-1010 (he shouldn't really have QQ/KK here once he calls 1/3 flop and checks turn), your call does very poorly. But I expect when the pot gets this big, people just mostly check back and want to just win what's already there.

Flop you should be checking or betting a lot bigger, it doesnt make sense to range bet this board when board favors IP player and he can have a lot of raises.

Do you bet large or check when you have an overpair here, or are you just doing an exploitable betsize with AK?

I would think sizing up just a little bit on the flop for 110, and jam the turn for the rest (460) in to a pot of $500ish. We have a range advantage, and will get V to fold all middle pairs(TT/99/88), flush draw, and even Jx, most of time.

AP, I don't think V could have too many Jx combo - AJhh, and small chance of KJhh/QJhh/JThh. V does't have too many combo of flush draw either - AKcc/AQcc/ATcc/KQcc. TT/99 are very likely in V's river bet range. Considering people are way under bluff in these games, I would fold.

I’d bet most overpairs but check some like AcAx, but whenever im betting this board it’s prob 55-60% pot to make this a 2 street game

Our bluffs wanna max FE so makes more sense to just bet flop shove turn, and we wanna get max value with our overpairs

You're making a somewhat iffy assumption here about him dumping all of his non-major PPs PF. If he does have a hand like 88, and since your hand is pretty much face up, you don't think he could be value betting to see if he can get you to call with A-high?

If you're gonna do the stupid tourney down bet with A high no club on the flop you have to double barrel on the turn. Can't imagine villain folds a single hand he called with pre to this terrible sizing in position. Just not a good board, scenario, stack size, hand to do it with.

I like the sizing pre but then it goes downhill pretty quickly.

Not sure at all what the point of the flop bet is, especially readless. The only hands that fold (I'm not even sure if there are any) are hands you currently have crushed.

I can't even comment on anything past the flop since I would never find myself in this situation. Work on fixing your flop play in 3bet pots to avoid these sh***y spots in the future.