5/5, 600 eff

V is older middle Eastern man, no history between us.
Hero in UTG with black AA ^30
CO and BB call

Flop (100): 432cc
Checks to CO who bets 60
Only H calls

Turn (220): 8o
Checks to CO who bet 120
H calls

River (460): 2o
Checks to CO who snap jams 460
Hero?

dont think you can fold once you play it this way, sigh calling it off

It's annoying you block the NFD but on the other hand you also block some made straights. Even with the Ac in your hand villain can have a bunch of FDs that bluff river and 55 might get turned into a bluff like this or a 75s/54s might barrel off here too.

Villain's 1/2 pot, 1/2pot, pot line looks a little bluffy but could equally be slightly missplayed set/boat. Cant tell much from it without reads.

I don't really think villain's go this heavy with a modest overpair but if he flatted you preflop with JJ+ he could take this line for value with 1-pair.

The river 2 is actually good for you as it removes 2 combos of sets V could have been betting while he's incredibly unlikely to take this line across flop/turn with 2X.

So you beat some of V's value range, he can be bluffing and he doesn't have a lot of combos that beat us. Readless I think you've got to call here.

How is this not a fist pump call with a super under repped hand that counterfeits goofy two pairs?

Or: where’s your raise on any other street?

In my game older players don't often fail to realise their 2pair has been counterfeited, so much so that they'll become visibly annoyed when it happens.

Nevertheless, it's going to happen sometimes and deffo makes us even keener to call.

Calling, don't see what other line you can possibly take readless.

snap call. only hand I am really worried about is A2

grunching.

I like a c-bet here OTF in general partially for this reason. This isn't necessarily a tough spot as you kind of "have" to call it off imo without any substantial reads but it's hard to say what effect under repping your hand.

But lots of people would take a bet/bet/bet line with KK, QQ, JJ that flatted pre because of your big UTG raise and maybe he was barreling with air, missed clubs, or 55.

Tldr; sigh call

If you are going to take this line, then stuff turn.

As played, obvious call.

So I am going to go against most everybody else here and say this is a fold as played. 99% of 5/5 and below players are showdown monkeys and will check back this river with a massive frequency with pretty much all hands that we beat. So V's river bet is very polarized here to a nut hand (most likely 44/33) or a missed draw (flush or 5x). Given that we hold the Ac, this limits the flush draws a significant amount IMO that would play this way (as a ton of them would check back the turn), so combinatorically I think V's range contains as many or more nutted hands than missed draws that he has chosen to three barell with. I would reluctantly fold here.

All the above being said, I don't understand why we played the hand so passively though? I would think we would have led or raised somewhere along the line which most likely helps us avoid this particular decision. I don't mind the c/c OTF, but I think either leading the turn or checkraising is mandatory as there are a lot of bad rivers for us that either beat us or kill our action. Would be interested in hearing OP's thoughts on why he chose to take this line.

We're leaving a lot of value on the table by taking this line vs rec players, especially multiway. I really don't see any reason not to bet 3 streets myself here. I mean, if we're opening 6x with just 120 bigs, I'm assuming we're trying to take advantage of bad players. As played, obviously call. I mean, if we just look at CO's value range of all 22-44, 88-TT, maybe half of JJ and 20% of QQ (yes, I see this flatted often enough pre flop), all A5 left, ALL 65, all 42 sooted with another 20% of the ofsuit combos for good measure, we're already at 30.5%. He only needs two or three combos of bluffs, or something like T8cc, 98cc, 87cc to make this call profitable.

Not sure that many villain's fire the third bullet with 99-JJ here so I would eliminate most of those combos. Also doubt that he shoves rivers with all the 8xcc combos too as he has showdown value now and with the river pairing, nothing will really have changed in our mind so we are more likely to call with an overpair. Just really smells like a value shove to me and I would need a very specific read on this player to range him as you have. But sh*t, my results blow this year so I could be dead wrong!

Didn't mention in OP that 2 people posted dead 5 which is why I made it 30 pre.

I took this line because I like having some overpairs in my checking range on this board that favors the field callers and I can comfortably call down on many run outs with some wheel and backdoor equity. I think check-raising turn is over-repping my hand- what worse hands are going to call me, other than maybe 99-JJ?

I agree with shorn that V's jam OTR polarizes him to either straights/boats or air (likely spades, I don't see many 5x here that isn't 65 or A5). I don't see him ever have A2 like one poster mentioned. I disagree with people saying he will just spazz shove a counterfeited 2p or 99-JJ because "he's old lol". When I call down twice my range looks a lot like overpairs. I think he checks back JJ- a lot OTR, especially since he's in position.

So there's 25 total combos of value that I can credibly give him:
44 x6
33 x6
22 x1
88 x6
A5s x2
65s x4

If you think he's loose enough to call with stuff like A5o, 65o, 32s, 42s, then that's easily over 40 combos of value we lose to. Now in terms of bluffs, having the Ac is pretty bad as it eliminates 6 combos I beat. So spade combos we're realistically left with:

KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ, JT, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 97, 76, 75

That's 13 combos (I discount any 8xcc as it's going to either check back turn or river a lot of the time), so barely enough for a call given the odds. And this is assuming takes a triple barrel line with every spade combo 100% of the time, AND that we don't give him any 65o/32s/42s.

In summary I think it's a marginal decision that can go either way, not necessarily a "slam dunk call" as some people claim here. Just because we take this c/c line with AA and under-rep our hand doesn't mean we're forced to call, as our hand is only a bluff catcher given V's polarizing line.

In the end, I did end up calling given we're at the top of our range despite having the bad blocker (this is an easy call without the Ac), and the fact that he insta-jammed almost before the river card even came. Bet pacing is something Bart Hanson talks about- most people with some value will give at least a few seconds thought about how much to value bet, so snap moving in tends towards a bluff. I don't like using live tells too often, except in marginal decisions like this one.

Results:

Villain has only 3 combos of each set, not 6.

lulz. don't ever discount the live spaz factor. nice call.

don't think this is a slam dunk call but i can't bring myself to fold here, i'd just always be sigh calling if i take this line. river is a great card because it reduces flopped set combos and some two pairs get counterfeited, and sometimes he might not have noticed that. i also do think the snap jam is a little suspicious, it means that he planned on jamming the river before the river actually came out. it doesn't always mean they're bluffing but a decent amount it does.

looks like you got max value nh

Agree with this. Have to call it off. I would likely have jammed turn. I just think it’s disastrous if this monkey checks back overpairs OTR and we win the minimum...

When V is unknown, you have to default to balanced play. Folding AA here would be super exploitative (especially given stack sizes and raise size) and we have no information to suggest we should be overfolding vs this guy.

wow I am stunned. And I was totally wrong and did forget the 3-5% rando spazz factor.

The snap shove is suspicious and I agree with Bart that it is generally a weakness timing tell and I did not take that into account here.

Anyway, WPNHOP. You have more $ than I would.

It sucks, but you have to call it off. V could easily have 99-JJ or 43 or a missed flush or straight draw. You're getting 2-1 odds. If V flopped a set, has 88 or 2x, pay him.

More disastrous than not allowing him to blast off early 500 on the river with nearly his entire bluffing range?