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Old 03-17-2019, 02:51 PM   #1
BreakEvenAt1-3
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5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

5/5

V is 5/10 reg, seems like a winning player and capable of bluffing.

Hero with QhQs in SB
MP1 ^15, H 3b ^65, BB and MP1 call

Flop (200): 764r
H bet 85, BB call, MP1 fold

Turn (370): 3dd
H x, V bet 125, H call

River (620): 4o
H x, V bet 350 with 80 behind, Hero?
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:44 PM   #2
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

What are the chances that a good 5/10 reg is going to call a $50 raise with $640 in their stack with a pocket pair 77 or smaller?

This board is scary because it misses your range completely. Guess what: it misses their range completely too.

Yes, they can have AA or KK (and this is a completely reasonable way for villain to play those hands) but you have a good bluff-catcher and this is a spot to see more than your fair share of bluffs. If your hand is good more than 36% of the time, you have a slam-dunk call. If they show up with a full house or straight, good for them.

ETA: If you had held the Qd, you would have blocked missed diamond draws and maybe you should have considered a fold. Maybe.
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:11 PM   #3
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Might just muck turn facing a bet w bb behind.
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:29 PM   #4
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

I WOULD HAVE MADE MY DECISION ON THE TURN

calling the $125 leaves V with a 2/3 PSB for the river

If my read of V is I'm good here I would C/R all-in

otherwise fold to the turn bet
what are you drawing to a 2 outer if your behind ?
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:40 PM   #5
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan View Post
Might just muck turn facing a bet w bb behind.
BB is the turn bettor who cold-called the 3-bet pre. MP1 folded flop.

BB should not have any 77- in his range, but AA/KK might be possible. He might mistakenly think this is a good board to bluff. I'm calling down.

This is not a bad runout for our range this shallow. It should brick both players.
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Old 03-17-2019, 06:03 PM   #6
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

As played you're making this really hard on yourself.

You're basically deciding how to play the river on the turn.
If you just call the turn bet, you have to be ready to call an all-in on the river.

Another option is to bet like 250 on the river.
You have some fold equity and it becomes really hard for villain to bluff you out of the pot at this point.
He might just call with the winning hand, saving you 100, or he might go all-in, costing you an extra 80.
I think the fold equity + chance to lose 100 less makes up for possible losing the extra 80.
Heck, you might even sometimes win the 80 extra.

Villain can have so many possible hands here, almost all of them are either a complete bluff or beating you though:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ => possible but unlikely, would probably 4bet pre?
TT, 99, 88 => very likely, but the river bet is a bit big?
76, 65, 54, 55 => these all beat you and I think one of these is most likely
75 => possible but unlikely

A7, A6 => turned into a bluff
A4 => beats ya
AK, AQ, AJ, AT => diamonds that floated the flop cbet turned into a bluff?

just wrote this up quickly, might not be completely correct

Last edited by Yeodan; 03-17-2019 at 06:17 PM.
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:17 PM   #7
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman View Post
I WOULD HAVE MADE MY DECISION ON THE TURN

calling the $125 leaves V with a 2/3 PSB for the river

If my read of V is I'm good here I would C/R all-in

otherwise fold to the turn bet
what are you drawing to a 2 outer if your behind ?
Turn checkraise folds out villain's bluffs while value-owning ourselves against their good hands. It is rather better to just call both here and on river.

But if we are making the decision on the turn on that basis, then we need to believe our hand is good at least 56% of the time, because we expect to pay $450 to win $450+370. This tilts the scales more towards a fold on the turn.

ETA: But of course it is a three-bet pot that started out multiway, so it is hella bloated, and we basically should gird our loins and be ready to stack off fairly light in 3-bet pots when effective stack is 100 to 150 bb preflop.

Last edited by AlanBostick; 03-17-2019 at 07:22 PM.
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:21 PM   #8
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Turn checkraise folds out villain's bluffs while value-owning ourselves against their good hands. It is rather better to just call both here and on river.

But if we are making the decision on the turn on that basis, then we need to believe our hand is good at least 56% of the time, because we expect to pay $450 to win $450+370. This tilts the scales more towards a fold on the turn.

ETA: But of course it is a three-bet pot that started out multiway, so it is hella bloated, and we basically should gird our loins and be ready to stack off fairly light in 3-bet pots.
Are we really folding QQ on this board for $125 for us to call into a $495 pot?
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:52 PM   #9
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
BB is the turn bettor who cold-called the 3-bet pre. MP1 folded flop.

BB should not have any 77- in his range, but AA/KK might be possible. He might mistakenly think this is a good board to bluff. I'm calling down.

This is not a bad runout for our range this shallow. It should brick both players.
Word. Whatís the buy in? If heís some 5T pro and has 650 then heís broke and you canít beat him here. Youíre also face up af which is a problem.
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:39 PM   #10
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Turn checkraise folds out villain's bluffs while value-owning ourselves against their good hands. It is rather better to just call both here and on river.

But if we are making the decision on the turn on that basis, then we need to believe our hand is good at least 56% of the time, because we expect to pay $450 to win $450+370. This tilts the scales more towards a fold on the turn.

ETA: But of course it is a three-bet pot that started out multiway, so it is hella bloated, and we basically should gird our loins and be ready to stack off fairly light in 3-bet pots when effective stack is 100 to 150 bb preflop.
You donít think weíre good here 56% of the time? You said yourself that V rarely has 77-. Not to mention folding to 1/3rd pot sizing is pretty bad on turn. It almost looks like heís value betting OTT then realizes his hand is no good when I call, and decides to bluff river. I suppose he could also be going for value with KK/AA but he 4bís those hands with at least some frequency.

If you believe his cold-calling range pre consists of all pocket pairs, then itís an easy river fold IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan View Post
Word. Whatís the buy in? If heís some 5T pro and has 650 then heís broke and you canít beat him here. Youíre also face up af which is a problem.
1K Max. He just lost a big pot the hand before and hadnít reloaded yet.

Whatís wrong without hand being face up? He can range me on overpairs but also think Iím a nit that will overfold on this 4-straight board. Doesnít mean he canít have bluffs here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
As played you're making this really hard on yourself.

You're basically deciding how to play the river on the turn.
If you just call the turn bet, you have to be ready to call an all-in on the river.

Another option is to bet like 250 on the river.
You have some fold equity and it becomes really hard for villain to bluff you out of the pot at this point.
He might just call with the winning hand, saving you 100, or he might go all-in, costing you an extra 80.
I think the fold equity + chance to lose 100 less makes up for possible losing the extra 80.
Heck, you might even sometimes win the 80 extra.

Villain can have so many possible hands here, almost all of them are either a complete bluff or beating you though:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ => possible but unlikely, would probably 4bet pre?
TT, 99, 88 => very likely, but the river bet is a bit big?
76, 65, 54, 55 => these all beat you and I think one of these is most likely
75 => possible but unlikely

A7, A6 => turned into a bluff
A4 => beats ya
AK, AQ, AJ, AT => diamonds that floated the flop cbet turned into a bluff?

just wrote this up quickly, might not be completely correct

I donít think he has a majority of those hands that you listed. A decent 5/10 reg isnít going to cold-call almost 10% of his stack with A4-A7, AJ, AT, 76, 65 or 54. As above I think he 4b KK/AA with at least some frequency. Main pivot point when deciding whether to call or not is if he has 22-77 is his preflop range.
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:52 PM   #11
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakEvenAt1-3 View Post
You don’t think we’re good here 56% of the time? You said yourself that V rarely has 77-. Not to mention folding to 1/3rd pot sizing is pretty bad on turn. It almost looks like he’s value betting OTT then realizes his hand is no good when I call, and decides to bluff river. I suppose he could also be going for value with KK/AA but he 4b’s those hands with at least some frequency.

If you believe his cold-calling range pre consists of all pocket pairs, then it’s an easy river fold IMO.



1K Max. He just lost a big pot the hand before and hadn’t reloaded yet.

What’s wrong without hand being face up? He can range me on overpairs but also think I’m a nit that will overfold on this 4-straight board. Doesn’t mean he can’t have bluffs here.
Just a dirty spot that comes up often. You can bet flop but the turn really creates a lot of problems for your actual and perc range here. It depends on some stuff, but I just don’t like bluff catching stacks when I’m capped on 4 liners.
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:56 PM   #12
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

pre/flop seem std. ott can consider x/jamming, your line looks kinda bs and he might think that you think he's weak so you just shove your spazz here. I don't expect him to fold 1010/JJ all the time and if he does well he's not betting them too often otr. he's also snapping with AQdd/AKdd that didnt 4b pre

river i'd call, i'd fold JJ/1010
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:44 AM   #13
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Turn checkraise folds out villain's bluffs while value-owning ourselves against their good hands. It is rather better to just call both here and on river.

But if we are making the decision on the turn on that basis, then we need to believe our hand is good at least 56% of the time, because we expect to pay $450 to win $450+370. This tilts the scales more towards a fold on the turn.

ETA: But of course it is a three-bet pot that started out multiway, so it is hella bloated, and we basically should gird our loins and be ready to stack off fairly light in 3-bet pots when effective stack is 100 to 150 bb preflop.
by just calling your hand is face up and V can correctly play the river.

a C/R here may fold out the other KK and may get a call from QQ JJ AKdd
AQ dd or any 2 dd for that matter where V would most likely check those back on the river.
unless V has reason to think he can get you to fold AA KK here why would he bluff river

so as I said decision is on the turn
fold or GII , calling is worst option
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:52 AM   #14
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
Are we really folding QQ on this board for $125 for us to call into a $495 pot?
Given the pot and effective stack size, any turn bet at all is an implicit river shove. If we can't find twelve combos that villain would bet on the turn that we beat, either bluffs or weaker value hands, we should fold.

It all comes down to how likely is the villain to bet JJ or TT in this spot.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:15 AM   #15
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Hero needs only 26% equity to justify a call otr.

I think this is a pretty straightforward call.

V could be taking this line with a naked bluff alone 20% of the time.

Raising the turn is a terrible idea.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:30 AM   #16
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

What are the effective stacks with mp1
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Old 03-18-2019, 12:07 PM   #17
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

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What are the effective stacks with mp1
Looks like $705
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Old 03-18-2019, 03:34 PM   #18
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman View Post
by just calling your hand is face up and V can correctly play the river.

a C/R here may fold out the other KK and may get a call from QQ JJ AKdd
AQ dd or any 2 dd for that matter where V would most likely check those back on the river.
unless V has reason to think he can get you to fold AA KK here why would he bluff river

so as I said decision is on the turn
fold or GII , calling is worst option
GII is the worst option, it's either call or fold here. Why would I raise jam when my range is so capped on this board? I'm not polarizing my 3b range pre in this specific configuration so I never have a set or straight here. I don't even know what "V can correctly play the river" even means. If he's bluffing he still has to bet again and I can decide whether or not to call down. If he's thinly betting worse overpairs then he likely checks back and I still win. He rarely has KK/AA as those are likely 4b at a high frequency pre.

Results:
Spoiler:
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:29 PM   #19
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakEvenAt1-3 View Post
GII is the worst option, it's either call or fold here. Why would I raise jam when my range is so capped on this board? I'm not polarizing my 3b range pre in this specific configuration so I never have a set or straight here. I don't even know what "V can correctly play the river" even means. If he's bluffing he still has to bet again and I can decide whether or not to call down. If he's thinly betting worse overpairs then he likely checks back and I still win. He rarely has KK/AA as those are likely 4b at a high frequency pre.

Results:
Spoiler:

Yeah your range is capped but the BB reg is also fairly capped, he's not really supposed to ever have a straight here unless he just got extremely bored and wants to spew off $$. Same goes for sets. He's mostly capped here to 99-JJ, possibly QQ-AA that trapped pre, some floated diamonds.

If he's thinly betting worse overpairs i don't really expect him to fold too often vs a bs line of 1/3 flop and x/jam turn over 1/3 psb when the bdfd comes in

Turn really can't be a fold ever, imo folding is the worst option.

Not saying turn is a jam but it's something you can consider, and it definitely isnt worse than folding. folding would be a crime.
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:34 PM   #20
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakEvenAt1-3 View Post
GII is the worst option, it's either call or fold here. Why would I raise jam when my range is so capped on this board? I'm not polarizing my 3b range pre in this specific configuration so I never have a set or straight here. I don't even know what "V can correctly play the river" even means. If he's bluffing he still has to bet again and I can decide whether or not to call down. If he's thinly betting worse overpairs then he likely checks back and I still win. He rarely has KK/AA as those are likely 4b at a high frequency pre.

Results:
Spoiler:
you give us no info on V or yourself
so what were supposed to assume bolded??????
your whole statement is results oriented because V bet river and you called

if you just want pats on the back that you played correctly then ok
congrats well played!!!!!!!
others lurk and read these posts and just may be open to learning.

if you stated V will bluff missed draws and over value overpairs and value bet
them then sure calling turn with intent of calling river is ok.
but you didn't state that
as played you stated V's a winning reg $5-10 player so for him to bet river after you turned your hand face up means either V's a donkey or your table image is that of one
no offense but otherwise your not telling us everything
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:37 PM   #21
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman View Post
you give us no info on V or yourself
so what were supposed to assume bolded??????
your whole statement is results oriented because V bet river and you called

if you just want pats on the back that you played correctly then ok
congrats well played!!!!!!!
others lurk and read these posts and just may be open to learning.

if you stated V will bluff missed draws and over value overpairs and value bet
them then sure calling turn with intent of calling river is ok.
but you didn't state that
as played you stated V's a winning reg $5-10 player so for him to bet river after you turned your hand face up means either V's a donkey or your table image is that of one
no offense but otherwise your not telling us everything
Well, even the higher-stakes winning regs can be donkeys at times apparently lolol
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Old 03-18-2019, 05:53 PM   #22
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Maybe he was bluffing, I would, hero face up af.

I think itís a terrible call down
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Old 03-19-2019, 12:19 AM   #23
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

If we believe that the villain can't have AA or KK because they flatted in the BB between an MP open and a SB 3!, and if we believe that they can't have 33-77 because the size of SB's 3! priced out set-mining for villain's stack size, then our hand is the nuts, and we should play it like the nuts when we have the deck crippled. Calling down is fine.
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Old 03-19-2019, 01:53 PM   #24
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Why stop betting turn like he has any 5s cold calling.

Just bet bet bet. You complicated the *** out of this hand.

If he nitrolls KK but there are so many hands you beat. They always put you on AK anyway when you 3!, he's never folding a pp here.
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Old 03-19-2019, 04:25 PM   #25
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Re: 5/5 Calling down with overpair on bad runout

Quote:
Originally Posted by StinkHolePatrol View Post
Why stop betting turn like he has any 5s cold calling.

Just bet bet bet. You complicated the *** out of this hand.

If he nitrolls KK but there are so many hands you beat. They always put you on AK anyway when you 3!, he's never folding a pp here.
No you don't bet bet bet w QQ in a 3b pot ftb on 7643. It's so sad because if you bet again I'd jam 88 and you'd somehow snap it off and think you got me.
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