villain just sat down an orbit before - no reads

Hero $360 V covers.

V limps in the CO, folds to Hero in the BB with KK who makes it $15. V calls

HU to the flop ($31) 42Q

Hero bets $25 V calls

Turn ($81) 10

Hero bets $50 V raises to $180. I have $270 left, so it appears to be one of those fold or shove decisions.

Giving him a range of all pocket pairs except KK, Ax suited, draw combos with Q or J, I have about 60% equity. Problem is that it is LLSNL, V seems comfortable, and my gut is telling me I am beat. What should I do?

Might be nitty but I think you can fold here. The limp call pre from the CO suggests that this is a bingo player. And he hit bingo. And we're only getting 2.4:1 on a call. That's not good enough if we assume his range is all value and mostly two pair

Seems to be a common type thread today.

Anyways, preflop has setup a decent spot: HU with a biggish SPR of 11.5, albeit OOP. We should never commit in this spot having only gotten in a small 4% of stacks preflop (imo), so I'd either lean to a couple of smallish bet/folds (and then decide whether we bet/fold versus bluffcatch river OOP), or if we're not comfortable folding to raises then leaning to checking an early street (flop is likely better than turn as better chance at keeping pot manageable) and attempting to get to showdown underrepped.

My table plays a lot different than one that ends up HU preflop, so there is admittedly a slightly different dynamic, but overall we raised preflop from the blinds OOP, bet the flop, and continued on the turn. What do we think villain thinks we have? So if we're taking the betting route (which we've taken), I now fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Hand is played fine. I think folding is actually fine vs. an unknown with strong vibes, but never, ever show.

Ask him if he can beat AK and hope he shows.

Trust your gut. This is nowhere near a must call. If your guys says fold, do like Javanewt suggests and move on.

That being said calling isn’t insane, but trust your gut.

Board is wet enough there isn't an easy answer. But in general against an unknown you should heavily favor fold.

Your raising range is too wide for an unknown player. Most of the hands you list call flop but are not raising turn. Pairs JJ- that are not sets are folding the turn. Most of the flush draws will chase rather then raise. The only hand that raises for value that you beat is AQ and AQ other then AcQc are more likely to call. The QX other then QT are folding or flatting way more then raising.

Grunching:

Folding your overpair 200bb's deep at 1/3 is a mistake only against the spewiest or laggiest opponents. You've only put in 1/4 of your stack so you've left yourself ample room to fold.

I don't like your ranging of V's hands. JJ+ and maybe 10's also would have raised in front of you pre. Sets fit his play. Other PP's do not. Not many 1/3 players are turning them into a massive bluff very often. A semi-bluff with a FD is more likely, but again, not that many 1/3 players do it this massively large.

He still has a lot more combo's of hand that you are ahead of, but I don't think it matters that much unless you have read that V can do this. You need to fold although I know it will feel crappy.

In Vegas, at the right establishment (Aria on Saturday night for example), you might be able to squeak out a shove. There is lot more calculated aggression from locals and complete spew from tourists. Still, even in that environment, folding to an unknown is no mistake.

fold but never show

I fold without too much fanfare. The board is wet enough to level yourself into a call, which I have unfortunately done many times. Sometimes I'm right, but I'm definitely down $$ long term from trying to hero these off.

Hero only beats a few hands (J9cc KJcc primarily), seems like a slam dunk fold.

Easy fold. Absent reads, there is no reason to shove or call here. Wait for a better spot.

I figured he would have more likely raised sets on the two tone flop and wouldn't have a set of queens or tens on the turn, so I put him on combo draws and shoved.

V called and turned over AA

Trust your gut is generally a good rule. Sets might call that flop, and not raise. Its certainly a plausible line, even if we think its a bad play (bad players make bad plays).

Some guys love to trap, as this Villain did. If your read says you've been trapped, you've got to think about hands that he could trap with, that you could beat. There are none in this spot.

Its a marginal spot between shoving and folding. Its really those reads that are going to make the difference between a good decision and a bad one.

If he had raised PF, then the money would have gone in anyway, so don't feel bad about this one.

Did you suck out?

WOW - V limp/called from the CO with AA?!?

Probably waiting to limp/re-raise someone, but when it was only BB, why bother? It worked

I've actually been caught in this exact same spot as Villain. Limping in LP to reraise an aggro player or two behind who are willing to call limp/reraises, only for it to fail and have a sensible tightish guy raise out-of-the-blinds. With these stacks, it's perfectly fine to disguise our hand and play a somewhat high SPR pot in position. Although I would have continued with my preflop plan and likely just went into calldown mode postflop (the whole point of not reraising preflop is to not lose a customer that can fold, and raising the flop seems to contradict the preflop thinking).

GclulessplanBnoobG

If we’re folding here what are we even calling with? Yeah sure it sucks and a lot of the time we’re going to Ben best but we can’t fold the 4th best hand we ever have here (Set of Q, set of 10s, AA) to one aggressive action. If I was sitting to your left and happened to see you had kings and folded this, I would be raising any two cards on the turn every single time until you caught on. Folding here is ridiculously tight. We’re losing to a terribly played WQ, TT and AA and that’s it. He has way more than 3 combos of value we’re beating to make this a call without even thinking about how many bluffs he has. Folding here is by far the losing play. Imo shove is a good play but I don’t hate flatting. Leaves about 2/3 pot on the river and keeps all his bluffs alive although there are a lot of cards we hate on the river.

Folding here is incredibly exploitable and ridiculous and is by far the worst play. If you’re folding all your overpairs in a board because he MIGHT have a set or two pair that he played horribly preflop then you’re just lightin money on fire.

^^^^

Against really good players who are capable of exploiting us, then this is something to be considered (and we can consider going into check/call mode ASAP if that's the case in order to keep their range super wide). But against the majority of the player field, continuing to a raise on bigger streets is lighting money on fire (not folding).

And we're also behind a lot more hands than AA/QQ/TT (he can't have other sets or two pair combos?).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah my bad QT, 22 and 44 are most likely too if he’s not raising sets on the flop. I’d love to play where you play if you can fold overs on this board with confidence.

Isn't this just pure Baluga Theorem?

Readless, assuming the person is a somewhat non-idiot, the best case scenario is that they're semibluffing you, but if they were the sort of person to semibluff you, why didn't they just raise the flop? I can't really see a lot of J9/KJ showing up here without also having clubs, especially since you hold the Kd so it's not like they peeled to a backdoor three card straight and flush draw.

I would've expected you to get shown QT a lot here.