V1: ~$800. MAWG who's fairly competent post flop. Pre, he limps speculative hands and raises with stronger pf holdings.

V2: ~$1k. The only professional I know who grinds 5/5 solely in this house. Usually sticks to a 11am-6pm weekday schedule. Sometimes hops in the 5/10 games. Fairly robotic TAG style. Capable of bluffing when needed, but spends more time playing games on her phone than observing the table action when not in a hand. Been a while since played with Hero, but usually observes hero playing TAG, sometimes LAG. Has seen me double barrel semi-bluff & play draws aggressively. In this session, Hero opened $30 OTB over several limps. V 3bet from SB to $110, hero called. Flop came A95 2-tone. Checked through. Turn was a blank and Hero bet $125 after getting checked to again and took down the pot.

_____

V1 opens $25 in HJ. Hero flats with 44. V2 flats OTB. 3 to the flop

$80

T64

V1 $55, Hero $125, V2 $325, fold, Hero..?

Fold pre
Flat flop
Fold flop unless you think she's capable of cold 3betting 98/78ss

So you don't set mine getting 31:1 implied?

You really think we can get stacks in by flatting this flop?

GII, this board is not draw free. TT is likely a 3 bet OTB, so the only hand you are losing to is 66. If you never worry about set over set, it will not affect your long term winrate in the slightest.

EDIT: Pre is fine, I would only occasionally 3 bet small pairs vs a HJ open from the described player.

Just play it however you play combo/nfd. You're about to get stacked either way, but you're not folding.

Pre is fine to flat

Flop fine - I can go ether way - Same thing would of probably happened if you flat. You still get raised.

Looks like a set of 6 or a major combo draw like 9s8s 5s3s. I would think TT would 3bet pre.

Gonna be really hard to fold. probably have to stack off here - you can explo fold, but it seems bad.

I assume hero has v covered?

Easiest move is to just shove. I don't love it but if she has a set it's just a cooler, you just gotta take it on the chin. Your hand is too strong to fold and you're very likely to be way ahead of her here.

I don't hate a flat just to put her in an uncomfortable spot on the turn. This risks a spade hitting, which could kill action, but I don't think it's bad to mix in a flat here.

Not unless the pfr is terrible, if that isn't true then I think flatting is probably bad

Easily can get stacks in, say you call flop and Btn folds, 180 in the pot, turn he continues for 100 you raise to 300 he calls, 780 in the pot with less then a psb behind.

Ps the deeper you are the worse set mining is

How many draws can villain be raising with in this situation and is she always raising? This is a tough call but it makes a big difference in this hand. Any pure bluffs at all? Is she going to read anything into your smallish flop raise?

Given the villain description I could find a very tight fold on the flop. There are not any 2 pair in her range because of the board. A bunch of hands that might have bet themselves are very unlikely to be making a 3 bet on the flop. This takes things like AT and 87 out of play along with a lot of weaker hands that might bet after 2 checks. The only over pair possible is JJ and it has to be discounted also with the action.

Given the way the hand played there is very little but sets and flush draws in her range. Sets are always 3 betting the flop so it comes down to how many flush draws do you put in her range. Because you are always crushed on the sets you have to put her on a wide range of flush draws before you are priced in.

Note that this is specifically because you have bottom set. If you swap out 44 for 66 you are ahead even if she only plays a handful of strong flush draws. Also, having made the first raise changes the EV a lot. If you had made the second raise on the flop you probably have to go with it because you are priced in even if you expect to have less then 50% equity.

Pre is fine in everyone position (assuming this game isn't super tough and every player 3bets an appropriate amount), raise bigger OTF. What's our position pre?

As played it's kinda interesting. We're beating no "value" hands at this point but villain's "bluff" raising range is almost exclusively 12+ outs (or at least perceived outs) combo draws which she should have a lot of considering she flatted the BTN being like 200bb or close with both PFR and cold caller.

Being OOP with villain I'd just shove the flop. We really don't expect to ever be more than a 60% favourite - unless she has the 2 combos of T6s - and we expect close to 0 folds but meh. Sometimes you gotta ride that variance train until it derails or makes it safely to the station.

Wait wait how is it that the deeper you are the worse set mining is? That makes no sense to me.

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He means very good players don't stack off as easily so when you hit a set you generally don't get stacks in unless you are set over setted. People that are good arn't stacking off one pair hands on this kind of a board 200bb deep unless you have history and are a very LAG player (and that's assuming he has AA) He could have AK ect.

Most likely situation is you are up against 66 but could also be AsKs or combo draws.

Folding pre is nitty but solid vs good players. You won't ever get coolered

I'm lost on this idea of folding a small PP IP for 2.5% of stacks.

It's not true that the deeper you are the worse set mining is. That's trivially falsifiable by pointing out that below a certain threshold set mining is not profitable at all. Above that threshold, it is profitable. So "deeper = worse" as a general statement is objectively false.

There is a threshold beyond which sets suffer from having to pot control (just as TP hands have to pot control above a certain threshold). That doesn't necessarily make them unprofitable, it just means they have to be played more cautiously and may be at risk for getting bluffed out. That's why, when stacks get that deep, 3b with PP can be appropriate to manipulate the pot size.

I'd disagree that a line that requires V bet, then call a x/r, and then call a river shove demonstrates how "easy" it is to get stacks in. Yeah, that'll work. It'll also work if she open shoves the turn. Or calls an overbet shove from us. Some idea of how likely these steps are should be introduced at some point.

Anyway, about the actual hand.

I think we can discount semi-bluffs considerably. V is not likely to expect us to raise and then fold to her also fairly small raise IMO (we'd be getting almost 3:1). Generally, when someone in our position raises, folding is not uppermost on their minds. Furthermore, if V has a nice draw, she has a profitable call. Why raise with likely minimal fold equity and risk someone coming over the top?

If we stack off, we're putting in $850 to win $1260, so we need to be good 40% to be indifferent to folding or stacking off.

My guess is that we're going to have to suspend some disbelief to get there.

JJ+ that didn't 3b pre? I think this is our best chance. I know a pro that sounds much like described V here. My pro tends to avoid high variance lines, such as 3b JJ. He can grind out a good rate without it, and much prefers the lower variance and easier playing decisions. He'd also rather see a flop and play a pot in position than gamble pre. However, he's also not stacking off with JJ post. So if V has JJ, I think we're moving her off it. If she has the set, we're not. Side of RIO with that?

Combo draw? Not really buying it, as described above.

Spazz? From the pro who's treating this as another day at the office, grinding it out? Yeah, no.

I guess there are enough faint possibilities that we can convince ourselves we have enough equity to stack off.

But I doubt there's anything wrong with folding in this particular spot against this particular V.

66 would be an auto call. Now we're ahead of 50% of sets (or more if TT 3b pre). That's a completely different situation.

^ this isn't a fistpump spot no matter what we do. I imagine the EV of call/raise are very similar to fold; it's probably just slightly +EV to shove imo.

Also don't forget there's a small chance she has 2 combos of T6s.

Not sure why you think she wouldn't have combo draws? I think it's a huge mistake to assume villains wouldn't 3bet combodraws here (even if you perceive it to be a mistake, they might not). Also, in this specific spot we raised really small OTF so we could be perceived to have Tx/JJ type hands that would fold to the cold 3bet.

Agreed it's a close spot and reads on V are pretty much everything.

From OP's description I'm slotting her as similar to the pro I know, who is ~never showing up with T6s here and ~never stacking off with JJ and ~ almost never RR with a combo draw.

Obviously, that's me using a stereotype (and a pretty narrow one) and I could certainly be off. Uncertainty should move us in the direction of a call.

In game, I can see myself winching 'em up tight and sticking it in. But on the drive home, I'm probably thinking to myself I didn't actually have to give all my chips away there.

Tough spot.

All-in, very hard to get away from set-over-set on this texture but hero's weird raise sizing on flop could also have induced some less standard-lines from villain, certainly villain should have many flush draws and maybe overpairs

I think the pre call is super standard in this particular spot.

V1 hand strength is defined by his raise, so I’d underweight V2 3-b TT. The initial flop raise narrows Hero’s range, so the 3-b OTF is very strong imo. V2 range: TT/66/AJs/KQs/QJs/98s/87s/76s/65s. I’d assume AQs+ are 3-b pre, same for JJ+.

V1 B/F reps high rankers and could block some of the above. So, given Hero’s narrowed range and V1 range possibly containing blockers, I’d weight (V2) toward sets from a pure combo perspective.

I’d tank, try to get a live read, and probably make a tight fold, wrought with frustration.

What do you mean exactly when you say "seen you play TAG or seen you play LAG".. lol

All in, he has more combos of draws then he has higher sets. if you are doing anything else in this spot play lower stakes

It means I adjust to table conditions and V is aware of that. Seems simple, lol.

^ curious of results here.

I flat.

Turn is an 8s. I c/f facing a $500 bet.

What an interesting turn card

I haven't bluffed on purpose with a set in a long time.