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5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? 5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river?

03-02-2016 , 04:39 AM
$400 ES

Hero is new to table...second orbit in. Never seen BN before (MAWG) but he seems competent.

MP raises $20, BN calls, hero calls with 99 in SB

Flop ($60): 542
Checks to BN who bets $40. Hero and MP call. Didn't expect MP to overcall. That's kinda weird. Never seen him before either.

Turn ($180): Q
Checks thru

River ($180): 4
Checks to BN who pauses and thinks for a second before betting $50.

Call or fold?
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 04:46 AM
Doesn't make sense for him to have a Q or clubs (he would bet more on river) and you're getting ~4.5:1 so shrug call. Not worried about MP after he checks the third time.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 09:15 AM
Given those odds I call. Button or MP might turn up with a QX that they played scared or a JJ/TT that played careful/scared. But getting better then 4:1 I'm calling without history.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 09:55 AM
Preflop: Good, although you'll want to at least consider reraising a % of the time in spots like this.

Flop: The check is good. After the check, raise to $120ish and fold to a shove. You are likely best, but any turn , A,3,5 or 6 is scary and any K-T isn't great either. The raise will likely take it down now, and the sort of hands that will look you up with a call (88-66) and A5 are the ones you beat. You fold to a shove because the board is coordinated enough that if button has a set he'll probably get it in immediately when facing your aggression.

Turn: As played, bet $90. Button may have been stealing and even if he wasn't the Q will be scary to him. You're basically betting as a bluff, but you have enough showdown value to still win a fair amount of the time at showdown when you get called.

River: As played, the check is good. At this point a bet is semi-unlikely to get action from a 5, but will get action from the hands that beat you.

Once button bets, call. You're getting a great price and flopped top pair constitutes enough of button's range that you're easily good here more than the 22% of the time that you need to be.

The key street here is the flop.

Just my opinion...
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 11:13 AM
You're probably not going to win if you call and the other guy is still behind you. I'd probably fold. Unless V is ******ed he probably has you beat. What's he betting $50 on River with after two people called flop that's worse than 99?
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 11:55 AM
I call, but BN could easily have you beat, as could MP, who might think his JJ, TT, AQ, etc., is good and will call given the odds. The turn was such a scare card for MP. As played, though, I am willing to see it for $50.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moneyline

River: As played, the check is good. At this point a bet is semi-unlikely to get action from a 5, but will get action from the hands that beat you.

Once button bets, call. You're getting a great price and flopped top pair constitutes enough of button's range that you're easily good here more than the 22% of the time that you need to be.
No MAWG is value betting worse than 99 here on the river, and he is definitely not betting 5x when checked to. This really looks like a thin value bet, and any hand he is betting for value on the river here has us beat.

The real question is if we ever think he uses this small sizing as a bluff. If we think he has bluffs here, then a call is fine. If not then fold. Personally, I think this is almost always value and I fold here.

The fact that everyone wants to snap call just because the sizing is small is also a great lesson on using small sizing to squeeze some extra value when we have a hand like TT here, as we can expect to get called by random worse pairs who can't fold for a cheap price.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 12:18 PM
A better play would be to raise this small bet! What can they call with? However, what would Hero do that with? Not telling a very good story, but most players at this level don't realize that.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 12:56 PM
Villain has AQ, but this decision is not going to affect your winrate. Click a button and move on.

99-no-club is one of the worst combos to raise as a bluff.

Last edited by RaiseAnnounced; 03-02-2016 at 01:01 PM.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 01:01 PM
You're beat far more often than you're not, but as others have said you're getting good enough odds to call.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 04:48 PM
Easy call.

Also, these stacks are shallow for 5/5. What gives? Are all your current 5/5 threads in the same game?
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47
Easy call.

Also, these stacks are shallow for 5/5. What gives? Are all your current 5/5 threads in the same game?
All my threads are from the same game where the buy in is $300-$500. There's almost always several deep stacks at the table but when it's a 3-handed pot and two players have a grand while the third has $400, it becomes $400 ES.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote
03-02-2016 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
All my threads are from the same game where the buy in is $300-$500. There's almost always several deep stacks at the table but when it's a 3-handed pot and two players have a grand while the third has $400, it becomes $400 ES.
Not if you're one of the players with $1k, and it still makes a difference when two of the three V's are deeper than the short stack. If V1 has $100 and V2 and V3 have $3k, the hand is not gonna play the same way as if everyone has $400.
5/5 - 99 OP OTF. Call river? Quote

      
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