Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I'll grant that he can have like AJcc-AKcc here and might sometimes show up with a hand with a ten in it (although most players don't raise those hands UTG+1, maybe with the exception of ATs). But he never has 99/AK/AQ. He's flatting a 90% pot bet against a committed player with three players left to act behind him.
With $100 in the pot, $190 behind, and no reads, we can assume that an unknown OR will make undisciplined/frustrated calls some % of the time @ these stakes. Recs suffer horribly from entitlement tilt, and will easily "put" people on draws/weaker pairs to validate continuing, even multiway, even @ a terrible SPR, & think drawing to overcards is a good way to play.
Discounted combos IMO :
JTs-ATs = 10, 99 = 3, AK/AQ = 2, FD = 6
88/TT = 6, QQ-AA = 18
This is 39% vs the OR, and we're definitely ahead of SB generally speaking (i.e. he has even more Tx, etc.). But yeah, I see your argument for folding, and that may be best, but certainly in a hot/cold equity sense, it's an arguable call, and w/ position, we basically can play near perfect on most turns.