I feel like there is more history behind UTG's massive limp-raise than we're being told. Maybe he saw us raising with some very speculative hands?
Preflop: The call of a limp/raise to 20% of effective stacks by a snug player UTG seems beyond bad. One has to assume he is not doing this to win a 7bb pot but is trying to create an SPR which makes it easier for him to take the LAG's stack. Notwithstanding our blockers, it seems like AA/KK. It's hard to think of a profitable flat-calling range for hero. Even with AA, we should be 5-betting trying to get stacks in vs KK. AKo seems like possibly the worst hand we should be calling with.
As played, checking back the flop to avoid being check-raised AA/KK seems the right play but I'm not sure what card we're wanting to come.
On the turn, calling 120 into 270 with our weak draw seems like a really bad play. If villain has AA then it's A
A
, A
A
or A
A
.
On the river, his bet of only 120 into 510 seems odd. Why wouldn't he check with his overpair. Is he trying to get a call from QQ/JJ? All of a sudden it seems like he might have had badly played AKo all along. I don't think a shove for an extra 315 is going to get villain off AA or KK. But maybe we could shove and get him off a chop!? We would be representing a stupidly played straight or 2-pair. I think I want to go for it but I'm honestly not sure if we get this through more than 40% of the time.
Last edited by Nogyong; 01-08-2018 at 03:18 PM.