5/5, $1200 effective

Villain in MP1 was mid-20s Asian TAG - not much of a read on him as he recently sat down.

Hero UTG with JJ opens to 25
UTG+1 calls
MP1 3-bets to 105
UTG+1 folds

Flop [$245]: 923
I check
MP1 bets 200
I call

Turn [$645]: 8
Both check

River [$645]: 7
Hero?

Should I be value betting or check/calling as a bluffcatcher here?

Very interesting spot. Betting doesn't make much sense. You look sooooooo strong on this runout after this action. If you bet half pot on the river and get called, I expect your hand to be good almost never.

Similarly, although it is better than betting, I don't like c/c. People tend not to bluff these spots, and for good reason. You simply have hardly any bad hands, and the 3bettor does not represent a flush with this action. I think most of the time when Villain bets the river, it's with some good overpair that he checked back on the turn for pot control.

I think you can c/f river to a normal-sized bet tbh. This is a little unbalanced if he bets exactly half pot, you will be folding too often, so in that case, I would say flip a coin and call half the time. But if he bets like 2/3 pot or more, you can safely fold all JJ, since you will have enough of QQ+ and the odd flush in your range to make it unprofitable for him to bluff.

Tough hand. I don’t know why villain would fear the flush with a hand like AA:x or KKx.

I’m definitely checking river. Whether to call a bet remains to be seen.

Never betting. C/c something small, C/f to a larger bet.

Block bet $100?

Anyone would donk turn about half pot for bluffing?

This is what I would do.

I think his range is AA, KK, QQ, TT, AK, AQ and potentially a flopped set with 99 or 88. I feel like his flop c-bet shows a little bit of weakness for being 80% pot, seems like he missed and is just trying to take it down. Your call and the flush coming seems to slow him down.

I think I check/call here as value betting and getting re-raised puts you in a really tough spot. A blocking bet does seem interesting but he could sniff that out if he's a good player.

I think this is a possibility but I would only do something like this once I have more information on the player. If he seems like a thinking player, then it would work BUT I think for most people, they wouldn't believe you and just call you down.

No. This is why you should have weaker hands; you can bluff with those instead. This is why you need to continue some frequency with stuff like A5cc and T9cc on these boards. You don't have good bluff candidates on these runouts.

Definitely checking river, but I don't understand why people think you should never check back AA or KK. If anything, against people who don't hero call a lot on the turn, we should be checking AA KK with a diamond a lot more, and bluff more (or all) of our AK AQ. If we bet all of them, we don't have strong diamonds when a fourth diamond comes.

I don’t quite understand what you’re trying to say here. Could we not take a check/call-turn donk line with a set like 77-99? Why do I need to have A5cc in this spot to make a credible bluff?

Bluff? With a set?

I might split my ranges otr so that I’d bet smallish w/ AQ w/ Qd,QQ, and few flushes like AQdd,AKdd (~260), betting the pot (overbetting might be even better) with 77-99, ATdd and rest of AK.

I would c/c JJ and c/r A3-A5dd, AQ w/ Ad, maybe the few 9x we have and fold rest (TT,66) vs decent bets. (Edit: 98s can go into both betting and c/c ranges.)

This could be just me having fps here so im reserving the right to change my mind if someone gives me a better way to play my range. Also I must say this range isn’t completely balanced (bluff heavy) and as such is slightly geared to exploit villains perceived capped range.

Alternatively just having big betsize betting range and checking range could work just fine too. I just think that by the river villains range is mostly bluffcatchers so betting big is good here. Hero has more sets and flushes but also more hands that aren’t good at showdown very often and benefit from bluffing to a bigger sizing.

As for playing JJ here, calling small bets but folding to bigger ones seems standard.

I mean turn JJ into a bluff OTT by donk leading, trying to rep a set like 88 or 99, which are in my UTG open range.

Pretty much this, I'd say.

Yes, I understood that part, but JJ is not a great hand to have to bluff with, since our hand is too strong. When we bluff, we have to compare EV of bluffing vs checking down, and when checking down has reasonable EV bluffing becomes less incentivized.

Therefore, in order for us to have bluffs on these runouts, we should and can incorporate more of a flop float, otherwise we run into situations where we have no good bluffs.

I think leading turn 1/3 here with a big chunk of our range would be fine just because our range is much stronger than villain on this turn. I would do it with some JJ+ with no diamond to check river (would be for equity denial) some weak flushes (that then overbet river), then some 2 high blocker flushes, then x/r or x/c with high and low nut flushes (unblocks their barrel hands).