5/5/10 (straddle) Bike, $1150 effective
Villain - middle aged African-American male w/ sunglasses. Semi-loose pre, opens a decent amount of hands. Seems to play straightforward postflop, hasn't shown down any bluffs. He called me down with TT on 732-J-A run-out when I flopped a set, otherwise no history between us.
OTTH
Hero w/ A
Q
in UTG+1
Villain in UTG limps
Hero raises to 40
SB, Villain call
Flop [135]: A
Q
2
Checks to Hero, who bets 70
SB folds, Villain raises to 170
Hero calls
Turn [475]: 8
Villain bets 300
Hero calls
River [1075]: 5
Villain jams for ~675 effective
Hero?
When he XR'd me OTF, I range him on 3 combos of 22, 2 combos of A2s, and K
J
, K
T
, and J
T
. Frontdoor clubs get there OTR, so I'm only beating the 2 combos of A2s, losing 6 combos of flushes and sets. I need to be good 27% of the time, so this is a fold.
Above thinking correct, or am I missing something?