Are you giving her all 16 combos of KT? Do nits/OMCs/nut peddlers open limp with KTo? IME, these types of players don't limp under the gun with this kind of junk. It's a 5/5/T game. Aren't 90%+ of hands being raised pre?

She limped CO not UTG. Also I never said she was an OMC, although she plays similar to how OMC's play, but not identical.

Not everyone that plays 5/5/10 is a reg. You get some fish that do a bit of limp-calling too. Hell, I've seen people limp-calling at $10/$20 too

I'd say that most players at 5/5/10 would be raising pre, but on average, you'll get maybe 2 players per table that like to do some limping.

Results:

1) It's very possible for V to flat PF with JJ/QQ IMO .. at least in 'my' games. That said, I'm not expecting JJ/QQ to shove here even with the flush draw coming out. PF V was possibly expecting/hoping for a raise out of the straddle. With the Button raising V may back off any 3-betting and go into set mine mode.

2) This game was a converted 2/5? That gives us even more credence that a 'Get out of my scared money pot' event is going on here.

3) I think 4 hours is a decent amount of time for some reads even if V isn't playing very many hands.

4) I typically don't 'offer' chips to players that I don't think will be sending them back anytime soon and/or there could be better spots to come at this table. Was there any hint that she would be racking up soon? I'm sure she did 'soon' after this hand if things went her way on the River.

5) Mindset of Hero goes a long way as well. If young 'Pro' then he should probably handle the loss as well as being shown a 'bluff' just fine. Typically I think that a stuck player will call this off whereas a player up for the session will not.

Anyone who reads my posts knows I use live reads 'a lot' so I'm going to use that in the moment here, but I do think I'm folding here quite a bit. No different than somebody who 3x the pot on River when we 'should' be chopping Aces. I say "Nice move" and hope I can set mine into them shortly. GL

You think someone playing 5/5/10 would post better questions, not sound so ignorant while posting. Wheres your game?

RE results: exactly what i said from the beginning-this is K10 a scary high percentage of the time and its by no means a slam dunk call. I also notice its only me and maybe 2 other posters who would seriously consider folding this. Not that it is a surprise, but still worth mentioning.

Thats where the magic lies in livepoker: being able to profile certain types of villains so damn accurate like this, so you literally can narrow their range down to one hand when they take a spesific line with spesific sizing.

Being able to to do that and be correct a huge percentage of the time requires high level human skills as well (being able to understand your villains mindset and their feelings towards poker), not just technical stuff.

Was joking.

Trying not to overthink this hand - it's obviously a call against an unknown so it seems like it's more about exploiting this super specific read of the woman and the fact that she probably raises JJ QQ AA AQ preflop and doesn't make moves without a super strong hand.

And QQ as well given she does not 3 bet with it.

I'm calling for sure, but I'm certainly not fist pump calling against described villain.

Raising a straddle is not a 3bet. You can safely remove all QQ/JJ from her range when she chooses to limp the CO.

This is certainly not the "grossest spot." It's more annoying than anything. If you have a strong read then you can apply it here and make a disciplined fold because described lady is not spazzing with AQ/AJ/QJ.

V has the nuts. She's trying to make it easy on you by telling you exactly what she has and doesn't want to get sucked out on. She's probably not limp/calling QQ JJ, you're basically praying she has JJ here. AQ unlikely. People only c/r broadway flops with broadway. Then she piles all of it on the turn when nothing changed. Yeah it's hard to fold top set but when everything she's doing is telling you she has the nuts, it makes it a lot easier. For $500 I'd call, for $1000 I'd cry fold.

One of the biggest reasons rec players suck so bad is because they only take certain lines with the nuts or perceived nuts. Like here. Even if V has AJ QJ JJ, hell even AQ, she's going to be a little concerned that the PFR just bet/called a c/r. There is less concern when you have the nuts. Do passive rec players even c/r two pair on this board? Usually not.

it's not exploitable if you're always right when you do it. hehe

yup. the truth is, folding here and being certain about it is highly advanced, and the reason is, it requires a deep understanding of live villains and their psychologies. the fact that she didn't repop it pre makes it easier to parse out JJ/QQ from KT, as does the fact that there are more combos of KT.

so those are two indicators. but the most interesting indicator is the human one, like you point out Petrucci.

above all else, she overbet shoves turn with the straight here and not necessarily with sets because what villains like this are primarily trying to achieve is to make it so that when the decision was made (meaning when they put all the money in), there was no way they could be wrong. it prevents them from being in the spot that they absolutely dread which is having to decide between two ****ty choices (shove or check) if a scare card comes. KT is vulnerable to both the flush and any board-pairing river. this gives her a HUGE incentive to just make her decision easy and get it all in on the turn. it solves all her problems. she's not interested in extracting max value. villains like this play based on a pain-avoidance strategy in spots like this.

additionally, she would be reluctant to do the same thing with JJ/QQ because they are 3rd and 4th from the nuts. so she worries about shoving into the nuts. holding the nuts, she has no such concerns. easy decision for her.

this situation is similar to spots where you can correctly fold KK preflop. there are ways to parse out KK from AA, and they're completely human/villain profiling things. this is why i play live and will never play online

wait....what?

i edited it. meant kings obv

Click bait. Not so sick spot lol

Very good post, with eleboration on my main points regarding profiling villain and the psychologies involved with it.

You hit the bullseye here, and its not that much to add to it. Its also often from a scared money/underrolled world these patterns is coming from: thats one of the reason they are so scared shoving into the nutz- and they often solve that problem by simply not making these kind of big money bets without the stones themself.

Another psychology aspect of it is that this is often very insecure players, that are unsure of how to play "correct" or even good poker. They solve this the same way: by at least make sure to have the best hand when the money goes in, because then its no doubt that they made the right play and they can tell everybody about it afterwards IF they get sucked out on. For the same reasons if this villain had any two pair combo she is never ever playing it this fast, just because of the fear of stacking off into the nutz for all her money. They want to play as close to variancefree as possible to minimize their chances of losing- wich also means not putting in significant money withou the stones.

I could have written a lexicon just on these topics, and i guess you could easily do the same 8o8. Btw ive found that my bachelor degree as a social worker have helped me tremendously when analyzing these scenarios and developing that deep understanding like you describe.

^^

You're right. She cashed out about 20 mins after this hand. This was basically the last pot she played.

There is a passive Asian lady at the Commerce who talks exactly like that...

Excellent.

I'm surprised how few agree.

Haven't most of us had similar thoughts ourself as new players, or in the midst of a terrible downswing?

what i love most is that you chopped my post down but made sure to keep the smiley face

First initial thought was to fold, esp after given she said she folded two pair vs raise on a dynamic board. Plus, it's not a normal 5/10 game, it's straddled.

I doubt she raises weaker two pair at a high freq otf, and then overbet jams turn for 2x pot at any decent frequency. When she limps the CO, we will see a lot of K10. She probably raises QQ/JJ pre & AQ at a good frequency pre.

The insta jam is also somewhat alarming. I think a lot of beginners/weaker players do this out of excitement when they flop/have a nutted hand.

Plus, the asian man is also in the pot. This also means we can fold here and not have to defend as much theory-wise & still be fine (although in theory we prob shouldn't fold AA here), as her shove ott needs to get through both players.

I think it's close, but I'd fold.

We are overfolding if we fold all our value hands (AA/QQ/JJ/AQ/AJ), but i doubt it's a great +EV/fist pump call as many others suggest here. I think it's slightly losing

Is she slightly overweight, roughly 35 years old, speaks fluent English and is somewhat social?

If she is passive she can easily flat QQ/JJ pre. As OP said she only raises KK. She may not even 3 bet KK if she is super passive, only getting it in on a non-Ax board.

Range is K10, QQ, JJ. She overbets the turn which stinks of the nuts. Still, the board can pair, quad up and there is the FD, a few outs to beat the straight.

Really ugly spot. I don't think calling is that bad, but I don't think folding is that bad either. It really depends on the read of the fish. Earlier she said she folded 2pair as there were too many combinations that beat her so I'm putting her on K10 here. Guess it's a fold....just.

OP, here's the thing. I can't find one post on 2+2 at all-the entirety of the website, where someone has posted asking if we should fold vs 1 possible hand combination that vil could have, and everyone just responded "yes absolutely!". This site is full of people who love making you feel bad for making a fold like that. Now, the truth of it is, is that a lot of the time they are right, and you are weak tight for making a fold like that. However, sometimes you have to go with your gut. Just don't expect anyone on this site to tell you that you were right.

I could probably find a fold with these reads.

- Old lady playing like an old lady.

- Overbet when scared money overbets the nuts only.

- $1000 is $1000, I couldn't agree more with the posters who point out that straddles don't reduce effective bb when people don't play that way. Old ladies are in that category.

Had a similar situation a couple of sessions ago, difference is I snapped it off because while the player seemed tight, I did not have the 4 hours of old uber-nit reads required to think about folding top set vs. the one hand that beats me. I lost that hand but I'm happy with the call given the info available to me at the time. This one, yeah I lean to a fold.