I would absolutely fist pumps GII here. V has QQ or JJ way, way more often than K10. I’d beat her into the pot and I would strongly consider high fiving the dealer.

Grossest spot? Not even close.

Pretty much snap calling. I don't care what anybody says, nobody is folding top set here.

Here's another hand which happened 2hrs prior which might change your mind:

1 limper $10
Hero raises $40 HJ
Passive woman flats $40
2 callers OOP

Flop ($160, 4ways) is Jc Tc 8d

2 checks
Hero bets $110
Passive woman thinks for 20 seconds then folds
UTG jams $400
1 fold
Hero snaps with AJo no club
UTG shows K5cc and gets there
Passive woman claims after the hand that she folded 2pr, since there are "too many permutations that beat me".

I refuse to believe that this same player is going to x/r QJ on an AQJr flop into a bettor and a caller.

Right now AA needs about 38% to call (1000 into 2600). Vs KT, he has about 22%. So if I am thinking about it right, AA needs her to have something other that KT about 42% of the time (assuming she is drawing dead when she doesn't have broadway).

IF AA read is correct, then I don't think she is valuebetting worse/bluffing often enough.

Plus Asian Guy is still to act, and I have no idea what he is on. If he is caught with like QJ, that is double bad news for us, because that reduces the number of non-straight combos V has, plus it eliminates our outs when behind. But is AG is sticky with T9 (the most likely draw, maybe?), then the reverse is true. I can't decide which hand he is more likely to have.

All in all, though, this feels like something I fold when I am behind a keyboard, and call when I am at the table.

A fold is the right move here with top set, he doesn't have odds to call, and she isn't a LAG, he only has 100 invested in the pot. It sucks to fold top set, here. Button likely has less than 10 outs because the straddler likely has at least one pair. The right move is to fold, but it is hard.

He has less than 100 invested in the pot and there are better spots to be had.

Fine, that's easy. But how about QQ or JJ?

I think that these hands raise preflop.

I feel like I am in some top set vs the nuts spot every 20 hours or so. This doesnt seem all that sick. Just assign a range and go with it. This one is close. I have learned never to say ALWAYS when it comes to ranges. I am often ranging players while watching hands and at least once per session something gets flipped at showdown that I never saw coming.

Sometimes they open limp JJ for reasons I dont understand. Sometimes they get stupid with 72o to be funny. If a spot is a borderline call vs a pure value range, call. The OMC you have played with for 100 hours and never bluffs suddenly shows up with a bluff. It happens.

That said this spot is not quite on that borderline. I could find a fold with the right read here.

People are unnecessarily killing OP here. Sure it's not the "sickest spot ever," but it is an incredibly difficult decision.

Which cards make the flush draw and which aces do we have?

Don't listen to anyone who tells you they have a solid read on anyone after playing with them for 4 hours.

Based on how well someone runs on preflop cards, you might label me as the nittiest nit, or a LAG, based off of a small stretch of 4 hours (which is what, 110-120 hands?). They might also play differently when *you* are involved in the pot than when you aren't.

There are rare cases where you can make that read (e.g. OMC who played 1 hand in 3-4 hours and showed AA/KK after everyone folded to his ridiculous preflop sizing), but this isn't one of them.

Initially I thought this was a call, but I'm now leaning towards a sigh fold. Even assuming she has lower sets here 40-50% of the time we don't have enough equity (ballparking it, I'll do a more detailed equity calculation at home) to call.

Do passive Vs overbet 2x pot with a flush draw even if we do unblock an extra spade?

Here's some maths:
- We need 40% equity to call
- We have 20% against 16 combos of KT
- That means we need to find at least 6 combos that we beat in order to justify a call

Can anyone list 6 combos we beat that would limp-call pre, x/r the flop then overbet jam the turn (ideally more than 6 combos, since we want to make a profit and not simply breakeven)?

1. mods moved the thread because it's a $5 blind game. straddles/action don't count ;-)

2. this is completely villain-dependent. if your description in OP is correct, this is an easy fold. people will say that's nitty, it's not. this type of villain, this is almost 100% of the time a straight. it's just how they play. this is actually a textbook spot for this type of villain to overbet shove because there's a FD and two flop callers. people who say call don't understand the psychology of this type of live villain. their ultimate nightmare is betting a normal amount OTT and then shoving river, and getting called by a boat. additionally the game is jacked up higher than normal. the nightmare is even scarier.

i'm a sticky player but this would be an easy fold if read are right. as you can see from most responses ITT, not many people make it.

That's stupid because:
1. The 5/5/10 game at my casino plays almost exactly like a 5/10 game would in Vegas or L.A. The buyin is 400-1000 and people open raise to $30-$35. The $10 straddle is semi-compulsory.
2. The medium-high stakes subforum says it's for 2/4 and above, so even if this were just a 5/5 game without the $10 live straddle (which it's not), it should still belong in that subforum regardless.

But anyway, it's interesting to see a range of responses from "snap call" to "easy fold". Most people seem to be in the "sigh call" camp though.

I'll post results later.

Lol calling this a "high stakes hand"

1. LA and Vegas 5/10 games play significantly larger and more aggressively than this game, especially if most of the players are gun-shy 2/5 regs. Name one cardroom in LA or Vegas (or anywhere else) with such low buy-ins for a 5/10 game. Around half of major Vegas cardrooms have equal or larger buy-ins for 2/5 for crying out loud.

2. Medium-High stakes subforum is focused on online poker, which is much tougher than live for similar stakes. Plus that forum is nearly dead so you'd get better responses in almost any other NL subforum anyway.

it's prolly also a judgement call as to which forum the post is better suited for. but i'll let higher ups speak for themselves

This is a good point. In this case the stakes are bumped up and there is a straddle and there is a lot of money behind. This might, for some reason, prompt v to limp qq or jj.

But I'd still go back to petruccis initial analyisis.

We can also go off things like timing and body language. Who really snap stuffs this much money with bottom 2?

The additional info that she claimed to have folded 2 pair previously makes it even less likely.

This isn't an online training video. In some cases, you can learn a lot in 4 hours. And as Petru said, no way on earth she is thinking "oh well it's 100 bbs."

We know she thinks about other people's hands. I think QJ and prop AJ can be ruled out almost entirely. Small chance of jj or aq. Smaller chance of qq. Thats only really if she has been paralyzed by the stakes preflop. But then why is she now suddenly stuffung a hand that could be behind without pause?

It’s a ****ty spot but given that people do weird stuff preflop, if she got to the flop/turn with hands like AJ/AQ/JJ/QQ we beat hands she can have for value. Worst case scenario we have outs. I’m not saying there is no opponent where I’m folding AA to here, but there aren’t many.

people putting villains like this on QJ here is how these ladies make money playing no hands

I would assume that these villains are losing players,effectively not making money.

So much this

Very little drives me crazier than people calling huge bets of nut peddlers

ya it's probably close. this type of villain will typically be slightly winning or break even in my estimation, depending on the game structure/rake, etc. simply because they play so tight, but still frequently get paid off.

This isn't that interesting of a spot specifically because of this. She doesnt have 3/4 of the bull**** that most players have in their range. but people can't fold sets. in unrelated news, water has been confirmed to be wet.

unless this is 5/5/10 mandatory straddle, it's going to be populated with players who normally play 5/5. congrats that this game plays like 5/10 in vegas. i'm willing to bet that my 2/5 game and possibly my 1/3 game is tougher than 5/10 in LA because those games are moronically bad. that doesn't mean i roll into HS and post a 2/5 or 1/3 hand.

snap folding all day.

passive recs never shove here without KT.

Assuming the third player folds, we need to beat 6 combos in order to justify a call.

So let's look at possible hands we beat:
- 3 combos of AQ
- 3 combos of AJ
- 3 combos of QQ
- 3 combos of JJ

Which of those combos do you think villain could realistically show up with here?

Remember:
1. Limp-calling pre makes it difficult for her to have JJ, QQ and AQ.
2. She might be a little scared to shovel this much money in with AJ.

Three important notes to discuss:
1. Does the third player ever trap here with KT?
2. Does the third player ever call it off here with a non-KT hand, thus increasing our pot odds?
3. Does the third player often block our outs, or block the part of the woman's range that we beat?