Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
A question I want answered (it stumped me earlier).
How do I proceed if I've gotten to the turn on AQ3Qs w 7 boats+, 30-50 Aces, and 7 draws ... adding in... AFTER having been ckc for a 2/3 psb otf from UTG open-caller?
i was thinking about this a little more after QS posted the sim results and i think the main decision is whether we want to bet AK (in addition to our boats). i think i end up that we usually dont, which was not my first reaction. i have Vs range on the turn roughly as:
29-38 combos Ax (depending on if he calls AJo pre; assumes AJs-A2s 100% call and AK is 100% 4b)
6-12 Qx (depending on KQo; assumes KQs/QJs/QTs 100% call)
~6 boats+ (50% AQ, 100% 33, 0% QQ)
12 gutshots (KJs/KTs/JTs/54s all call with bdfd, ignoring OPs holding which blocks one combo 54s)
assuming that if we bet 3/4p, V continues with 50% of Ax (15-19 combos), all Qx+ (12-18), and diamond draws (4), then our bet is pretty thin and probably bad if he ever raises or donks river. if we expect V to be stickier with Ax/gutters then we can probably get away with betting, although it seems like it is mostly going to be better to just xb and value bet against his weaker river check range. betting gets a little worse if he is flatting AK/QQ some, but it doesnt move the needle much.
in terms of bluffs, we do have some gutters (although it sounds like OP wont have any KJ/KT/JT) and other 0 equity stuff that would like to bluff (in addition to diamonds), but we probably cant support those hands with just boats+ in our value range. would probably prioritize: low diamonds, high diamonds, JT, KT, KJ, others.
if V is good then we will be put in some tough spots on river after turn checks thru, but i dont think theres much to be done about that.