Idk where you're getting "internet tough guy." You came in with "******ed," "has a brain," and "super obvious," now you're getting your dander up that someone is talking the same way to you.

Those terms weren't directed at anyone in the thread. Just talking about the hand in general. Your statements like, "get a clue" are directed specifically at me. There's a difference so you should get a clue.

Why is it a good spot for V to bluff?

Think about his preflop range. He is a pro who large 3b our EP raise from MP.

Obvious holdings: AK, JJ+.
Less Definite: AQ, Random bluffs with suited cards.

He bet small on dry flop which he would probably do with his entire range. Then he bombed the King turn. When he does that, you should downweight JJ-QQ. He might not bet all his bluffs, but he will almost certainly bet his suited heart hands.

Now, when we check and he bets the heart river, he will have AK, AA, KK, and hearts for value. His river value range is massive, like two dozen+ combos when we hold TT-QQ. So any random air hand that he happens to show up with here should bet against a competent player in order to balance that range. Depending on how often he bluffs the turn, even if we know for a fact he's betting all the random air he gets here with, it's probably slightly losing or close to BE to call with QQ here. That's why it's a good bluff spot.

I get what you're saying and agree his range if he bets river is strong.

But what I'm considering is how often is villain who check called every street where the river doesn't change that much, calling?

My opinion is that a player who gets to river this way is calling river at a very high frequency.

So I guess the question is, when you're in a spot where you know you're likely getting called often are you still betting with your bluffs for the sake of balance?

No, I don't bet with my bluffs for balance if I have a strong read that my opponent will make a bad call in a particular spot where my range is strong. But I just disagree that this is such a spot. If I'm in Villain's shoes otr with AhQs or w/e, I expect to get it through enough times to be profitable.

River is like the nutbest card for V to bluff if he were airballing. We have a lot of 99-QQ that have to fold, even AK floats are extremely difficult to call unless we have Ah.

Pre is a very clear fold, it’s so big a 3b and you’re literally near the bottom of your RFI.

Flop seems like a good spot to fold too, your A arent good very often and moreso your J. Plus you only have a bdfd, no bdsd.

Turn is a fold too, same reasoning as flop and he’s not giving you a good proce, doubt you have much IO vs his AK/AA no heart otr if you flush up otr.

River is the most obvious check pls do not bet the river.

Don't think I am every getting to river here in this situation...passively calling a draw in order to hit my hand OOP vs a solid player who is unlikely to pay you off with 1p.

I don't see how this situation is ever profitable...and if V checks back value hands OTR then it is disastrous.

Why does it have to be top 30% of his range?

Minimum defense frequency = 60/(60+165) = 27%

From a GTO standpoint we should defend top 27% of our UTG1 open range.

This might be the best river possible to bluff.

I think MDF is an overrated concept at LLSNL. It assumes V is capable of a balanced 3betting range which is very rare. IMO, I think we can make unbalanced folds b/c V is so unbalanced when he raises.

Also, I don't even think AJs is in our Top 27% of UTG OR range....unless you are opening over 20% of hands which V has noticed.

That's the whole point. AJs shouldnt even be a defend in theory from MDF perspective, let alone exploitative perspective where people dont 3b enough and we are at the bottom of our range.

This is a full time pro player at 5/10, I think it’s safe to assume he’s capable of balancing something as simple as a PF 3b range.

In hindsight I agree this should be a fold PF. In the moment I had a pretty aggro image so I felt like I could defend lighter, and his larger sizing made me weight him more towards bluffs.

Have you actually shown-down weakish/wide holdings from EP?

Reminds me of situations where I start to level myself in these spots also by calling super wide b/c I don't wanna get exploited etc. Think its a huge leak I'm trying to plug.

Do we really have to defend these spots when there are so many better +EV situations we should be concentrating on?

Also remember that just because someone is capable of playing advanced enough of a strategy to balance their 3 bet ranges, doesn't mean they'll be applying it against you. My 3 bet range against a reg is going to look way different as compared to my range vs various flavors of other player.

My guess is a pro is going to be 3 betting a random with a strong, linear range until given reason not to.

Ya I agree. Question would be when do we assume V is polarizing his 3bet range? After we have shown down a few light opens?

Even then, finding out can be a very expensive proposition especially in 3bet pots at 5/10 lol

A few that come to mind would be if we're showing down a ton of light opens, or have been folding to 3 bets regularly. For example: some with a 50% fold to 3 bet would only fold 6.25% to 4 consecutive 3 bets, and you can probably make some player pool assumptions and make some inferences, and break out the inner Bayes Law to suggest that this person is likely to be folding too much to 3 bets after just 4 trials. Obviously we need to do some inferences on our own end as well: like a boring nit grinder may not notice and keep playing his top 6% hand range, or notice but not care to do anything about it.

If I'm playing 5/10, I'm polarizing my 3b range by default, especially against a young Asian/Euro looking dude who looks like he knows what he's doing. I'm still weighted towards value but if a mid-20s unknown wearing a hoodie is opening from HJ and I'm holding A5s OTB I'm 3b'ing that all day.

Ya it all comes down to configuration when Hero decides on a 3b. Eg Vs HJ/CO open, you can 3b a ton OTB.

But I'm talking more as a 3b defend and metagame. I think there is rarely enough history btwn V to assume he is attacking your OR.

How can we even assume V is a pro? B/c he plays often? I think I call way too wide in some cases and give regs way too much credit for pulling a move. They almost always have JJ+, AQ+ and I should dump it.

Results? Did Hero x/c, x/r, b OTR? Did pro turn over a hand to compare against this line?

/

What would your line look like if you had a hand like AcJc? Would you take the same line/lead river?