Table just formed. Hero has $1000. Playing 6 handed.

V1 is a middle aged white guy who is on the fishier side. Relatively tight pre-flop and post, but will sometimes spaz and tilt with random big draws. Seems like the type not to be able to fold really big hands.

V2 is a young asian guy who is easily one of the biggest fish recs that comes to the card house. Will probably be down 2-3 BI every session. Bluff jams randomly, calls extremely light.

V1 UTG opens to 20. I 3b BU with KK to 60. V2 in BB calls. V1 calls.

There's been 5-10 hands before this and no pot pre was more than $50, which is why I went for a smaller live 3 bet sizing of 3x. In hindsight, I would have liked to make it ~$80 for fat value and since stacks are pretty deep. I think the fish in BB can have literally any two broadway, suited cards, and pocket pairs excluding QQ+. V1 can have a lot of medium - strong hands.

Flop ($185): T92

V2 checks.
V1 checks.
Hero bets 100.
V2 calls
V1 calls.

Turn ($485) T92Q

V2 checks.
V1 thinks, grabs green chips worth $200 ish, and then checks.
Hero bets $300.
V2 calls.
V1 calls.

River ($1385). T92QK

V2 checks.
V1 quickly leads out for $500.
Hero?

Honestly a pretty disgusting spot. We're getting pretty good direct odds to call, and even better odds when considering the fish in the BB may actually pay off with a worse hand than ours some portion of the time. I'd estimate we need to be good about ~20-25% of the time here. I imagine the fish in BB almost never has a Jack, since I have never seen him slowplay strong hands before. His check calls are almost always weak - middle strength.

V1 can have random two pairs that might be spazzing out and a lot of jacks. We pretty much never have a jack except AJhh, KJhh, QJhh, all which I may not 3 bet pre. So top set may be the best hand we have in our range. From a theoretical standpoint, I think this is a call.

From an exploitative standpoint though, can we fold? Do villain's bluff/value own themselves here enough?

Why are you betting only $100 into $185 OTF? Don’t you want to go larger here?

The turn is a bad card although you block KJ, so if you’re betting, why not bet smaller?

AP, I’d fold.

This is a puke fold. When someone bets into 2 players like that, they have a J a lot. This doesn't feel like a blocker. You say he sometimes spazzes, but I have to see some really fishy play out of someone before I think they can do something dumb like bluff or try to value/blocker bet worse. You played the hand OK up until now, other than you could have maybe gone a bit bigger on the flop.

This one comes back to PF hand reading and what hands that V1 holds that contain a J where he raises UTG AND calls your 3!. JTs makes some sense as does JJ, maybe AJs as well but unless it is hearts he isn't calling the flop bet. So combo wise, that leaves 6 combos of JJ, 3 of JTs (I just don't see him calling your 3! with JTo but could be wrong) and one of AJhh. That is 10 hands.

You need 26% equity too call the river here (3.77-1), so if you can find 4 other hands that he may bluff with in his range (or bet for what he thinks is value, so all other sets and 2p) then you can call. I think it is close actually, but in game given how I have been running, I am not sure I can make the call.

V's preflop range should look something like ATs+, AQo+, T9s+, maybe KJo, and 77+. Trying to give him a generous range. I think also with the fish flatting the 3b he will see a flop with all the hands.

On flop he should call with JTs, QJs, QTs, AThh, AJhh, AQhh, AKhh, KJhh, KQhh, JJ, QQ, and weirdly played 99, TT, T9s maybe but those probably raise.

On turn he's continuing with all the above hands imo.

So now for river combos it's (following the above order, bolded have a jack in them) 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 6, 6; that's 14 jack hands out of 26. For those non jack hands they all have pretty good showdown value.

Ultimately I don't think he any bluffs here since they're almost all pretty strong hands like two pair or top pair good kicker. Maybe he's turning AQhh into a bluff but I don't think it's enough. Plus you have a weird player in the blinds behind who might sometimes check a jack. Mostly considering V1's range in this hand I am happy folding here.

EDIT: I think also there's one KThh and ATs (no hearts) probably folds on turn. My general point is still about the same.

I would fold

Size up OTF; pretty coordinated and you want to charge more especially 3 ways.

OTR, Pretty disgusting spot, but he is a fish so it's not impossible that he is doing this with a worse hand. Considering bet sizing, that we still beat a fair share of "value hands" like 2p and sets, AND getting 4:1 on a call, I think I toss it in.

Fold, not really a disgusting spot other than that he sucked out. It's beyond obvious that he has a jack, firstly because people always do when they bet into two players here, and secondly because of that aborted impulse he had to semibluff the turn.

everything chrisV said and i dislike sizing everywhere