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Originally Posted by JB Clark
F no. He has to show down and has little FE vs UTG1 open...nope there are zero combos of QJ absolutely zero, it would be suicide to 3b those hands pre, he has to get overtiop a UTG1 raise and beat a shortie, im thinking JJ+/AK/AQs
I actually think.we beat nothing because why bet AQ?
FWIW I did think KQs was in his 3 bet range; that's just how this 5/10 game was played. QJs was an outside possibility just because I had a big stack and was probably the table target and that is a pretty darn good hand to try to iso the fish with.
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Additionally, villain being oop will more often than not bet the draw he picks up om the turn so I'm more or less ruling out flushes from his range.
Whether right or screwed me I discounted flushes a good bit as I felt villain would barrel with FD often on turn.
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The turn is trickier. I don't feel like villain is suddenly checking AA or QQ this deep, as he would expect you to check back a lot. So we probably can bet for value. And I don't like that second diamond because none of the broadway diamonds are blocked.
A turn bet is obviously a really standard play in this spot and probably correct. I was thinking on the turn that I was likely to only get 1 street against hands I beat. Getting that street on on the river kept the pot smaller and prevented a sickening turn reraise. Getting that street on the turn prevented the diamonds or very unlikely straight from getting there. Since I discounted diamonds with villains turn check I decided to try to go for the river value.
As sissy as I played this hand I would have definitely value bet the river had villain checked.
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The river card is a bit icky. We still beat AQ (unless diamonds) and AK, and he would probably bet them (especially if he blocks diamonds). But the sizing feels value-y, the third diamond isn't a great card to see, and even JJ got there. But we only need to be ahead 35% of the time, and our hand is still a bit under-repped. I'd call.
Exactly.... other than an A or Q the J was a terrible card to see (which I dumbly didn't really think about until it popped out). Villain plays JJ exactly like this tons!
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EDIT: whoops, did not factor in the side pot size. Yeah, now I'm kind of leaning fold, as a bluff makes less sense. Now we are basically just hoping he is going for value with AQ if he calls
The fairly dry side pot is a relevant factor, although maybe not as much as normally in this situation. I can't describe it but button had obviously given up and I at least had the read that even A high was likely good against button.
That said it is relevant and definitely for me skewed villains river bet range more towards value. I don't think he'd bluff garbage given the small side pot, but his (small) bluffing range might have some AK, 1010, 88.
On the river I was thinking a true air bluff was super unlikely so came down a lot to whether villain was value betting with worse given how underrepped my hand was.