$1000 eff. My image TAG, tight grinder. Button middle-aged nitty man... but someone told him he's supposed to steal every button with ATC and he reluctantly raises to $30. His fold to 3b % is high and he will fold his ATC if 3-bet. SB is a competent young grinder TAG, has a big fold button - just calls.

I'm looking down at QJo in BB. I'm pretty sure a 3b here to $120 is just what Dr. ordered but wanted to confirm with you guys.

It's meh. What's your plan if either or both call? Shut down? I'm always tempted in this spot but it's super image dependent. Also, if you think there's even a chance you get a call it's a super ****ty spot to be in. So, it depends but I'd probably gather more info on middle-aged nitty before I start 3balling him.

Pretty standard but you can also call and chr alot of flops etc if he's cbetting too high

One of the interesting notes about a squeeze play is that you might be more apt to make it with 72o than QJo. The reason being is that if you get 4-bet you have to fold either way (though you may be tempted to incorrectly call with QJo) but with 72o you are not giving up any real equity by not seeing a flop when you get 4-bet and fold.

So the question is: Are you going to be raising enough where you only expect folds / 4-bets? If so, I would actually do it more often with junk hands. The other benefit of ignoring your hands when squeezing is that you really just focus on finding the right squeeze opportunities rather than looking for a combo of a decent squeeze opportunities plus a playable hand.

what range are you giving a competent TAG grinder flatting in the SB and what will his continuing range be?

what range do you think he will give you if you squeeze?

also, was SB at the table when you 3 bet with K9 and then gave up after the flop? how about button?

We have to be successful more than three times out of four to have +EV.

We lose $120 one of those times and make about $40 (after the rake) when it works.

If we think that is likely, and if we do it judiciously as opposed to "a lot", being a middle-aged nitty man myself, go for it.

fold pre

Math is hard. Has to work a little less than 61% of the time. We are risking $110 to profit $70, and there are times when one of them just flats and we can rip a flop.

3b seems good if you have faith he is folding ok hands to 3b and you have a winning image, and he isn't tilting/losing.

I don't see why not combine the FE with some real hand equity. I think the combination of both works together beautifully to make this play +EV. Also, I don't expect B to 4b ATC range very often

This math is incorrect. It's 61%. Also this incorrectly assumes we only win when everyone folds. If called we can still win postflop either by aggression or by having the best hand. BTW, QJo is about 60% favorite vs ATC. And we actually have position on SB.

+1

I luv me some QJ but your not giving up that much equity by 3b/f it to most villains

This would be a 3 bet IF the BTN raises ATC for real.

Calling leaves us playing creative with a dominated hand terribly, and in case we flopped a pair---ugh----we have a slightly dif spot ahead of us OOP.

I would 3 bet squeeze (and 3 bet to a size which would entice folds) since it is....

1- Likely to take it down (this is big here)

2- Dont lose any equity if we do take it down

3- If we flop a pair now WE have the initiative and can control the pot with our own sizing of bets, not his. We will be bluffcatching mostly if we should flop a pair. It will be tricky if we do.

Folding is out of the question and calling with this horrid piece of crap vs two players (one being a TAG is not my cup of tea).


Note: As always all the other ducks like hero image, villain emotional state must be in a row before doing this.

If button is nitty, as stated, I'd just fold.
If button is raising ATC here, as stated, I'd 3bet.

In a situation exactly as you described, i'm 3-betting paint here all day and some Axs. And sometimes Kxs. And any pair. And sometimes Qxs,Jxs. He's opening 100% and folding 90%+? And the guy in the middle has a big fold button, lets say he's folding 80% of his call range? That means Your play is going to work .9*.8 = 100%. So you make money sometimes all of the time. But frealz though. The math says 3-bet.