This isn't a dissertation. I'm not going to provide footnotes. The 40% is very basic net present value economics math.

youre not going to because you can´t. 20% is totally off.

Without the cold callers, absolutely. With the cold callers, we’re kind of roped in


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KTss is only doing okay vs both players have made hand.

When KTss vs AXss vs made hand (straight, set, 2p or even over pair), you are around 20% equity for the main pot.

CO is tag reg, I'd give him a cbet range exactly big draws and very strong made hands. Unless you think co would fold these hands to your jamming flop (prob not), I believe folding KTss is +ev.

That´s just assuming a worst case scenario and believing he has no bet/fold range at all. What would you do if you had red aces and got shoved on here (a hand we want to fold but would not mind a call at all btw)? What if you have a set over set situation? you´d be throwing money away by folding.

I'd use my slight FE and jam. I want CO out if possible. If he calls, it's pretty similar to flatting because you can't really fold the turn regardless. Plus, if you flat and hit turn, CO can get away. Either make him fold or make him pay.

It's not a net (expect) present value calculation it's just a net expected value calculation. If you think I'm wrong then tell me what your discount rate is for turn and river cards.

I terms of equity we actually have here... A rough estimate is each out is worth 2% on turn, 4% to turn and river. The 4% linear estimate breaks down when we have lots of outs, but we can use this chart https://thetapoker.com/outs.html instead. Also have to calculate dodging villain redraws. Better to just run an equity calculator but I'm being lazy so whatever.

9 spades, 3 non spade J, 3 non spade T = 15 outs = 32% to just hit on turn and 54% to hit on either turn or river. The turn &river equity is most relevant because jamming ensures we see both those cards. Anyways, 54% is much better than 40%. So heads up against a villain with no redraws this is for value. You can tune that up or down depending on what you think are in people's hands or just run the real equity calc.

Also, go back and review semi-bluffing math. When you have a lot of equity you don't need villain to fold often to make semi-bluffing +EV. Doesn't mean it's the highest EV, but it's def not negative.

When trying to calculate your chances to hit with two cards to come, here is the best and easiest formula.

If 8 or fewer outs total, just multiply the number of outs by 4. So 8 outs x 2 cards is roughly 32% to hit. It is actually about 1 or 2 percent higher than this.

If more than 8 outs, this formula will over-estimate your percentage. So with more than 8 outs, you switch to 3 x the number of outs + 8. With 15 outs, your chance of hitting would be 45+8 = 53%.

This is a simple formula that every poker player should memorize.

Fold pf.

You are supposed to be tighter not looser with more people in the pot.

1) We are dominated pretty much always
2) Our FD is never to the nuts unless the A is on board
3) Our opponents 3betting/3bet calling range will block a lot of our straight outs

You'd rather call 65s here/any pockt pair or even Axs. This might be the worst suited hand you can call preflop.

Also what is worse is the SPR is going to be like 1-2ish always. Which again makes it not a good call since even if we do flop a FD/Top pair/Straight draw. We are going to be in tough spots.

I mean you couldn't have flopped a much better hand here and no one knows what to do. That should tell you something.

Also lol@ counting outs. First day of school guys.

fold pre
fold to the 3 pre
fold fold fold

diapers are diapers 6 handed or 9 handed

Ok, guys. How come we can't just stick out money in here? According to a number of situations I ran through Equilab the only losing proposition here is if one Villain has AX's - that's it.

Against every other combo we are in great shape and in fact we are a favorite if they both have 2p or sets. This is no brainer get the money in spot AINEC.

Obviously with the whales being short, I can understand the argument to fold pre. And it has some merit. Not likely a play that I make in the moment, but I'm not faulting anyone for that.

Are u saying KTs is a bad starting hand? I thought It’s pretty dang good

With a TAG 3-betting us if the 2 whales didn't call pre would you have ????

if the answer is no; which it should be, then why call here

junk is junk

now you have a huge drawing hand but not to the nuts and maybe 4 clean outs for your stack

Because the whales did call.

When u have a whale in the pot it increases the EV of our hand. And I think it increased it enough to justify a call.

Jam it like it’s 2006 and print. Hyperknit I’m surprised you ask for advice here. Only 20% of posters could offer anything worthwhile for the stakes you play.

ok so the whales did what whales do and the pot is inflated.

we have K high right now
we have a draw to a non nut flush
we have a double gutter straight draw

so the ???? is if we shove will the tag fold?
or if we shove do we want him to call ???

if we flat and the flush comes in will TAG pay us off & is it even good

I see 4 clean outs QQQ non spade and the A spades
and we still most likely need to fade a pairing of the board

so did all the action getting to you catch you off guard ?

I haven’t played 5/10 in awhile but I would have never gotten to this spot. That said, once here, this seems like a clear jam.

We can’t be scared of the CO having a nut flush draw. That is MUBS. And even if somehow he does have it, our jam gives him a chance to fold it. And we would still have 9 (albeit dirty) outs for the side pot if somehow he calls off with it.

Also, to those of you discounting our outs: the CO can’t block our straight outs without our overcard outs being good.

I would question whether those of you saying our hand is in trouble here 3 ways have played much 5/10. Like I said, it’s been awhile, but people at 5/10 tend to play looser on the flop than they do at lower stakes, at least in my experience. We have nowhere near enough evidence yet not to treat our hand as having majority equity in this pot, and playing accordingly.

having played in several different rooms
I can say it can be like any 1-2 game . is it day time weekday (nitfest)(nutpeddelars) or midnight Saturday?
to blanket state $5-10 players play looser preflop than 1-2 players is not justified.
are they more aggro post flop with lessor holdings sure I'll go along with that

but if OP has a nit image and a TAG 3-bets us its different than a whale 3-betting us.
than again if we've been getting out of line because of the whales
then OP didn't state that.

Your reasoning there is wrong. Your assumption on the outs assumes that your opponent doesn't have a better flush and doesn't have spades himself. The chances of a spade coming is uncertain. Not to mention that if you assume a normal distribution on the cards that people have and have folded, there's likely only 7 spades left in that deck.

Your assumption that either a K or a 10 is an out is also wrong. Whale can have A10, 10's, 108, J10, etc. You can't call it an out. The King isn't an out as TAG has AA, KK, AK in his range.

I explained away the semi-bluffing math already.

Based on what? The whale being in makes it worse really. He's could have most anything. A-6s? Yup. Straight already? Yup. Set? Yup. Whale cuts the outs and his range hits an entirely different part of the board than the TAG.

There aren’t even that many nfd combos available. We have the KT and J is on the board. Some people don’t even 3b 100% with AQs, let alone AT, A5, A4 etc. I think our equity in the side vs co is around 45-55%

You're not wrong, but I'm happy he did because it's nice to have the discussion.

Not sure that this cliche applies here - nobody thinks the spot sucks, it just about which of two good options is better.

I mean, surely the only action which is even a little bit questionable here is calling the 3bet, for which we only need like 18% equity or something minimal like that? You aren't saying to open fold K10ss 6 handed are you?

At some tables I might fold the first time. If I did open the first time, I would fold or 4bet the second time (probably fold).