BU is a 5/10 reg, seems like a competent 2p2 level player, not particularly loose or tight, capable of 3betting light and understands what a squeeze is like most regs at this level in this casino. He usually buys in for 2500(the max) and did today. He hasn't played with hero much, but he probably knows hero is a 3/5 grinder.

Hero has a very tight image this session. However, hero has 3bet 2 or 3 times already. Earlier this session hero opened 6 handed UTG 35 with AKo, was 3bet to 135 by villain on the button, and 4bet to 370 with 800 behind, villain folded. Hero has not show down any hands where he 3 or 4bet.

Hero has 1480, BU covers.

UTG+1 limps, BU raises to 40, SB calls, Hero is BB and 3bets QcQh to 170. BU calls, the rest fold.

Flop(400): 544
Hero bets 210. BU calls.

Turn(810): 7
Hero bets 480, BU calls.

River(1770): K
Hero checks, BU shoves and covers Hero. Hero has 620 left. Hero?

Any thoughts on flop and turn sizing? Once hero bets the turn he has to stack off on pretty much any river, so should he bet more on the turn?

I don't think BU expects hero to have any air on the river, or expect hero to fold the river. If BU is bluffing, what hands is he bluffing with? I can only think of 66/76/TT/JJ. Those hands are probably checking back though because hero is calling with all pairs in his range except JJ (which BU might correctly think hero does not 3bet pre).

I see jlocdog moved this from MHFR forum.

The first mistake I see is the large 3bet size pf. You shouldn't be looking for folds, you want the BTN to call. Besides, AA and KK won't fold. That bet sizing sets up the situation where you're at the river and have already put in 61% of your stack. He needs to be bluffing over 21% of the time to call. I don't think he's bluffing this often enough to make a big mistake to fold.

Not sure why this was moved.

The 3bet pre is 100% for value and I expect to be called by worse often. Unless you don't 3bet QQ here, 3betting smaller is asking to get outplayed postflop. I don't think it's that big, it's 4x the initial raise, we are OOP and there is one caller.

So do you like the bet sizing, just fold river as played?

Bet sizing pre is fine, especially given button raise and SB call, hero has 3bet a couple times before, and it's a good spot for a squeeze.

Flop sizing we can try smaller to induce but 1/3-1/2 pot is fine. Turn is already a big bet IMO, why would you bet more? We can still easily gii on the river.

I probably just jam river myself to get value from the range of hands you said will check back. I don't know what we lose to aside from 77 and 55, or maybe AK which didn't believe.

your 3bet is huge and your flop bet is kinda small. If you bet flop a bit bigger you coulda probably got it in on the turn if that was your plan.

As played it's a tough spot. Was your plan to check to induce him to bluff? not sure what he calls flop and turn with - maybe AA or KK or JJ...

I might call just to see his hand LOL. I'd expect to see AA here sometimes. Weird hand

Meh.

I hate having to fold here after putting in so much of our stack. Clubs should be a very small portion of his range here unless it's something like 56, I don't play a lot of 5/T but most villains don't have many Kings left in their range either. AK likely doesn't float two streets against a perceived tight opener who 3bets OOP. So, the river doesn't really change a whole lot.

I don't see that many value hands in V's range, but I don't see that many bluffs either. I'd likely just close my eyes and call getting almost 4:1 on my money.

Also, I'd suspect that it got moved because we don't really have any meaningful reads on the way that V plays his hands. It's all well and good that he can mix it up, and that he isn't too loose or too tight, but we should try and have a sense of his 3bet calling range here, and what he continues on the flop with. Is he normally passive post flop? If he turns a combo draw would he call IP or would he put pressure on hero? Would he 4bet AA/KK?

preflop pot size: 5+10+10+40+35=100 before it gets to hero. 170 is exactly pot. 200 wouldnt even be a stretch imo. i like 1/3 or 2/3 cbet otf, don´t see much reasons behind 1/2. as hero prob has a tight 3bet range but 3bet quite a bit already and therefore might have a perceived loose 3bet range, i like 1/3 imo.

as played, i think i´m shoving river myself. as further played, i think i would fold.

As I mentioned, I haven't played very much with him. In fact, I don't know if we've ever played together before. All I remember is seeing him in the 5/10 game.

If I had to guess his 3bet calling range, I would say 66-JJ, AQ+, AJs, some SC like T9s/98s. I would expect him to 4bet AA/KK, especially given my recent 3bets this session, but there is a small chance that he flats KK since I have a tight image.

I would expect him to be aggressive postflop, like most decent regs.

I wouldn't expect him to be too aggressive with combo draws on the turn because he can't really expect to fold out better.

Caveat: The above is pretty much all conjecture based on the tendencies of decent/good regs in this game.

He has zero Kx in his range unless it's KK and you were beat already.

I just ship river.

*grunch*

Here's my range analysis on each street:

Preflop - Almost no chance of AA or KK due to no 4-bet with the SB still active. AK should be discounted a bit too since he could have 4-bet. He was in position, getting good odds. His range is probably a medium pair, big broadway cards, AQ, AJ, and some chance of a suited connector or small suited ace.

Flop - He's probably peeling with AK, maybe AQ, even if he doesn't have a backdoor flush draw (e.g. AK).

Turn - I really really doubt he's continuing with just a naked AK or AQ to this bet, unless he's got it suited in clubs. He might also fold 88-JJ to this bet, but might sometimes continue.

River - He's not putting us on AA-KK when we check. He's putting us on QQ or worse or a bluff that gave up.

It's a tough spot, we're getting almost 3-1, so need to win only 25%+ to call. I really doubt he has AK or KQ due to his turn call. Really, the only hand that makes perfect sense is AQ or AJ. Nothing else makes sense...

I'm calling due to these things: we are getting 3-1, we have shown weakness by checking river, and his line doesn't make much sense unless he has the flush.

Definitely ship the river.

As played it's close but I call. Hard to see how he can be bluffing here, but hard to see how we're beat either. Call for the pot odds I guess.

What if uh...

What if you just shove turn? $1100 back and turn card brings a **** ton of draws and combo draws onto the board. He may want to put us on one of the many draws out there and hero call with a hand like 88 figuring he's got some extra equity when he's behind and a lot of blockers to a lot of draws when he's ahead.

If we've decided that we're stacking off I feel like $1100 is just as likely to get called as $480 by mid pocket pairs, if not more so since $480 looks like it's setting up an easy value shove on river. On top of that you don't have to worry about the stupid A or K or 6 or 8 nonsense on the river that either kills your action or puts you in a really dumb spot.

As played I call and don't think too much about it. If he has me beat whatevs thems the beats.

We're looking to get called, I doubt many good regs are going to snap off every overbet on the turn with medium PP because they might be ahead of backdoor draws (unless hero does it regularly).

Also, the more I think about V's action on the river, the more I feel we're beat...it makes no sense for him to shove 66/88-JJ when we clearly have showdown value. Wouldn't be surprised to see AA/KK/77 (I still don't think I can fold without more info though).

Yeah, this is one of the things I thought about afterward and the reason I titled the thread bet sizing check.

If we bet 1/2 pot or more on the turn, are we stacking off every river? If not, which rivers do we c/f? It becomes a pretty gross river spot. If we are going to fold every club river, we should bet more on the turn, like 600.

If he has us beat on the turn, we're not getting away (I don't think anyone disagrees with that, but if you do, please speak up because that is an interesting minority opinion). I don't think we can get that much value on the turn from JJ/TT/66, but any AcXc has a lot of equity. If we shove the turn, it is pretty much entirely a protection bet, which we don't do very often in holdem, but maybe this is a spot for it. And shoving does sort of look FOS so maybe we get called light.

I think the only turn options are

1. Shove turn

2. Bet/call turn. The important questions are: How much? And do which rivers do we check/fold, if any?

3b sizing is fine imo

I definitely don't like ch/folding the river but I think it is fine. We beat a hand turned into a bluff which isn't exactly a frequent occurance.

yeah closing your eyes and shipping the river is probably the best play here instead of check/deciding

Think I like c/jam turn better to get value from floats.