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05-13-2019 , 07:59 PM
#1
snowmachineshopsit
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MGM NH 2/5

~1500 eff, V is young Argentinian reg, not sure how good he is

EP limp, MP 25, H LJ KK 75, sb 225, we c

(485) AA8 x x
6 x, we? x
J x, we?
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05-13-2019 , 08:22 PM
#2
OperationLadyGaga
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I’d have to value bet
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05-13-2019 , 08:36 PM
#3
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DumbosTrunk
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Bet small turn small river. Targeting QQ exclusively. Fold to a raise.

Most of the Argentinian guys there are good.
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05-13-2019 , 08:48 PM
#4
Spanishmoon
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Meh. Maybe his QQ could call a value bet. He has 6 of these and 4 AK unaccounted for with 3 more JJ and a few AQs maybe too. I don’t see the point of betting since 10+ combos felt us and 6 give us value.

Maybe there’s an argument for a turn bet though. AP I’m checking river.
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05-13-2019 , 08:58 PM
#5
jdr0317
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J is a pretty not good card but I’m betting. We have some KQs type stuff that might play this way.

High 100’s is good.


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05-13-2019 , 08:59 PM
#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OperationLadyGaga
I’d have to value bet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Meh. Maybe his QQ could call a value bet. He has 6 of these and 4 AK unaccounted for with 3 more JJ and a few AQs maybe too. I don’t see the point of betting since 10+ combos felt us and 6 give us value.

Maybe there’s an argument for a turn bet though. AP I’m checking river.
Yeah but the guy checked - thrice. None of the Argentinian regs I know would ever check back trips like this. I’d think he had quads before any of the hands you mentioned. I’m betting river for sure.

If he’s playing a 4! or fold strat out of SB he could easily have worse pairs too, especially considering this is an MP open/LP 3! and ranges are a bit wider.
Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 05-13-2019 at 09:06 PM.
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05-13-2019 , 09:28 PM
#7
Spanishmoon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
Yeah but the guy checked - thrice. None of the Argentinian regs I know would ever check back trips like this. I’d think he had quads before any of the hands you mentioned. I’m betting river for sure.

If he’s playing a 4! or fold strat out of SB he could easily have worse pairs too, especially considering this is an MP open/LP 3! and ranges are a bit wider.
Ok so you pretend to be the V here. Are you calling a value bet with Queens on this river?

Now you’re the Hero again. Are you calling V’s Check raise shove with Kk here? I realize the ability to extract thin value is the essence of strong play in Llnsl. I just feel that a river bet targets a narrow range here. And as I suggested earlier, I have no problem with a turn bet. AP I’m x behind and happily collecting my 30k Argentine pesos here.
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05-13-2019 , 09:31 PM
#8
XtraScratch8
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Yeah, I’m just checking behind here expecting to be good most of the time.

Agree that targeting QQ exclusively for value is too risky.

When betting for value in these spots you need over 50% of the hands THAT CALL your bet to be beat and I don’t see that here at all.
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05-13-2019 , 09:32 PM
#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Ok so you pretend to be the V here. Are you calling a value bet with Queens on this river?

Now you’re the Hero again. Are you calling V’s Check raise shove with Kk here? I realize the ability to extract thin value is the essence of strong play in Llnsl. I just feel that a river bet targets a narrow range here. And as I suggested earlier, I have no problem with a turn bet. AP I’m x behind and happily collecting my 30k Argentine pesos here.
It’s an easy bet small for thin value fold to a jam spot. Which is why we should do it. No one said we’re calling a c/r otr. But we don’t know what v will do yet. He may find a call with QQ if we size it right.
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05-13-2019 , 09:32 PM
#10
XtraScratch8
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^you’re wrong.
Raise/folding here is a disaster.
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05-13-2019 , 09:37 PM
#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
Yeah, I’m just checking behind here expecting to be good most of the time.

Agree that targeting QQ exclusively for value is too risky.

When betting for value in these spots you need over 50% of the hands THAT CALL your bet to be beat and I don’t see that here at all.
Don’t forget TT.
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05-13-2019 , 09:39 PM
#12
sixsevenoff
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Man, I think I would've gone $175 on the turn. As played, this is definitely a value bet spot. I would go $225 here.
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05-13-2019 , 09:39 PM
#13
XtraScratch8
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10’s is a pretty trivial fold imo.
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05-13-2019 , 09:39 PM
#14
XtraScratch8
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I would bet turn, but once jack hits river AP. I don’t see the point.
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05-13-2019 , 09:41 PM
#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
^you’re wrong.
Raise/folding here is a disaster.
V can’t have any bluff raises on this river. We have trips and jacks full in our range. A bluff raise would foolish.
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05-13-2019 , 09:44 PM
#16
XtraScratch8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
Don’t forget TT.
How can 10’s call even a 1/3rd value bet?

They are beat by AK, AQ, A3-5s, AA, KK, QQ, JJ. That’s an absurd amount of combos on this board to call down with 10’s.

Against a solid player you’re really opening yourself up to a terrible spot by opening the betting again unless you plan on calling the jam.

I really firmly believe that bet/folding here is far worse than just checking behind the river AP.

But I would bet the turn as hero here. The turn is worth betting.
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05-13-2019 , 09:46 PM
#17
XtraScratch8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
V can’t have any bluff raises on this river. We have trips and jacks full in our range. A bluff raise would foolish.
They are also in his range in a 4! pot regardless of abundant post flop checking. You already said yourself you would fold to a jam so if he doesn’t believe you have an Ace doesn’t a thinking player easily jam over your value bet? I would.
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05-13-2019 , 09:49 PM
#18
Minatorr
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With J river i’d just x. Hand seems ok
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05-13-2019 , 10:13 PM
#19
KID777777
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X river, bet turn small imo
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